Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary game script to help narrow down your decisions for the week.
Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus on those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league, and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
[Blue font indicates games *not* on the DFS main slate.]
Updated Saturday, September 7th @ 11 PM (EST)
Three Stars
Quarterbacks
- Jared Goff (Lions)
Running Backs
- David Montgomery/Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions)
Receivers
Team Defense
- Bengals
Two Stars
Quarterbacks
- Josh Allen (Bills)
- Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins)
- C.J. Stroud (Texans)
- Jalen Hurts (Eagles)
Running Backs
- James Cook (Bills)
- Raheem Mostert/De'Von Achane (Dolphins)
- Joe Mixon (Texans)
- Saquon Barkley (Eagles)
- Zack Moss/Chase Brown (Bengals)
Receivers
- Khalil Shakir/Keon Coleman/Curtis Samuel/Dalton Kincaid (Bills)
- Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle/Jonnu Smith (Dolphins)
- Stefon Diggs/Nico Collins/Tank Dell/Dalton Schultz (Texans)
- A.J. Brown/DeVonta Smith/Jahan Dotson/Dallas Goedert (Eagles)
Team Defense
- Seahawks
One Star
Quarterbacks
- Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs)
- Caleb Williams (Bears)
- Joe Burrow (Bengals)
Running Backs
- Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs)
- D'Andre Swift (Bears)
Receivers
- Rashee Rice/Xavier Worthy/Travis Kelce (Chiefs)
- DJ Moore/Keenan Allen/Rome Odunze/Cole Kmet (Bears)
- Ja'Marr Chase/Andrei Iosivas/Mike Gesicki (Dolphins)
Team Defense
- Saints
- Chargers
- Falcons
- Browns
- Buccaneers
