Underdog Pick Em: Week 4

Photo: USA Today Sports

Underdog Pick'em is an exciting daily fantasy game that lets you predict player performance across various stats. The concept is simple: choose whether a player will go higher or lower than their projected stats, and if all your selections are correct, you can win big.

How It Works

To get started, pick at least two props from two different teams. These can include a player’s touchdowns, passing yards, or even fantasy points. Select whether each prop will go higher or lower than the projected stat.

Payouts

The payout structure rewards you based on the number of selections in your ticket. The more props you add, the higher the potential payout. Typically, Underdog Fantasy's pick'em contests follow these payout multiples:

• Two picks: 3x
• Three picks: 6x
• Four picks: 10x
• Five picks: 20x

I’ll note if any of the picks given in this article have a different payout structure. Whether you're placing a simple two-pick ticket or aiming for the stars with five, there are plenty of options.

Commanders-Cardinals Shootout (6X)

Given the weaknesses on both defenses, this game sets up as an unexpected shootout. Kyler Murray's growth as a passer and his connection with Marvin Harrison Jr., paired with Jayden Daniels' fearless playstyle for Washington, point to plenty of offensive fireworks. With the Commanders' pass defense ranking among the league's worst, there’s ample opportunity for these offensive stars to hit their props. Washington has not punted or turned the ball over in their last two games. Unfortunately, their defense also allowed their last opponent to race up and down the field, putting together long drives and scoring on every single possession.

Terry McLaurin – Over 57.5 Receiving Yards

• Terry McLaurin’s connection with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is strengthening, particularly on deep balls. The pair linked up for multiple long completions against the Bengals in Week 3, showcasing their growing chemistry.

• "We get reps at least once or twice a week in deep balls in practice where we’re just working on the catch point,” McLaurin said. “I think I’m just excited to see how we continue to build off this going forward. Because a guy with his talent and a guy like myself who really wants to make plays, I think he’s going to continue to open up everything for us, not just for myself.”

• The Cardinals’ pass defense has struggled, allowing opponents to complete 75% of their passes and giving up the second-most yards per attempt in the NFL. Arizona's top corner, Sean Murphy-Bunting, lacks the shutdown ability needed to contain elite receivers like McLaurin, making this an advantageous matchup for him.

Jayden Daniels' 27-yard touchdown to Terry McLaurin with 2:15 left in the game is even more preposterous on the All-22. The Bengals send a blitz, and Geno Stone comes through unblocked. Daniels knows he's going to get faced, and he makes the perfect throw regardless. pic.twitter.com/ZtIICkHUce

— Doug Farrar ? (@NFL_DougFarrar) September 24, 2024

Marvin Harrison Jr.. – Over 71.5 Receiving Yards

• Marvin Harrison Jr. has quickly developed a strong connection with Kyler Murray, earning 35% of Murray's targets over the past two weeks. This week, he faces a favorable matchup against a struggling Washington secondary.

• The Commanders' pass defense ranks among the league's worst, allowing a 78% completion rate and struggling to pressure quarterbacks, ranking 30th in sack rate. With Washington's inexperienced secondary, including rookie cornerback Mike Sainristil and the struggling Benjamin St-Juste, Harrison Jr. is primed to exploit these vulnerabilities.

WR1s vs. Commanders [Over Last 16 Games]

1. Ja'Marr Chase: 6-118-2
2. Malik Nabers: 10-127-1
3. Mike Evans or Chris Godwin: both >22.0 PPR
4. CeeDee Lamb: 13-98-2
5. Brandon Aiyuk: 7-114-1
6. Cooper Kupp: 8-111-1
7. Tyreek Hill: 5-157-2
8. CeeDee Lamb: 4-53-1 (only flop)
9.…

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) September 24, 2024

Greg Dortch – Over 3.0 Receptions

• With tight end Trey McBride out, Greg Dortch is in line for an increased target share. In the Cardinals' two non-blowout games this season, Dortch has played two-thirds of the snaps and averaged 7.0 targets per game.

• McBride, who also averaged 7.0 targets per game, leaves behind a significant share of the passing game, which Dortch could benefit from. Given the Washington pass defense's struggles, including allowing a high completion rate and limited pressure on quarterbacks, Dortch has a clear path to exceed this prop.