How It Works

Underdog Pick'em is a fun twist on daily fantasy games where you predict whether a player will go higher or lower than their projected stats across categories like touchdowns, yards, or fantasy points. To play, simply pick at least two props from two different teams. You can choose player stats like touchdowns, rushing yards, or even fantasy points and predict whether they will go higher or lower than the projected numbers.

Payouts

Underdog Fantasy offers a payout structure that rewards you based on the number of correct selections:

• Two picks: 3x your entry
• Three picks: 6x your entry
• Four picks: 10x your entry
• Five picks: 20x your entry

This article highlights a few of my favorite player props for Week 18. Last week, we easily hit on the Bengals-Broncos shootout props while just missing on the others. It's just more fun to root for overs, and we are looking to have fun here. This week's article will focus on my favorite receiving overs. 

Saturday WR1s (3x)

We begin our Week 18 picks with a correlated play featuring two wide receivers just selected for their first Pro Bowl. With reasonably low receiving yardage props and strong indications that both teams could lean pass-heavy in this matchup, the odds are in our favor for both props to finish in the same direction. The smart money is on both hitting the higher mark.

Zay Flowers Higher than 57.5 Receiving Yards

• Flowers has at least 74 receiving yards in six of his last 12 games, averaging 74.1 yards per game over that span.
• The Browns have allowed at least 58 receiving yards to 19 different opposing wide receivers this season, including Flowers, who had seven catches for 115 yards on 12 targets in their Week 8 matchup.
• With Justice Hill sidelined and the Ravens unlikely to give Derrick Henry a heavy workload, expect a pass-heavy game plan early as Baltimore looks to put the game out of reach quickly.

Franchise first ? @ZayFlowers pic.twitter.com/hBfeozmy5m

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) January 2, 2025

Jerry Jeudy Higher than 53.5 Receiving Yards

• Since Week 8, Jerry Jeudy has averaged 7.0 catches and 100.0 receiving yards on exactly 10 targets per game.
• Over that stretch, he has surpassed 60 receiving yards in eight of nine games.
• With David Njoku and Cedric Tillman out, Jeudy has become the focal point of the Browns' passing offense, earning 18 targets last week.
• In the Week 8 matchup between Cleveland and Baltimore, all three Browns wide receivers (Jeudy, Tillman, and Elijah Moore) each recorded at least 79 receiving yards.

Star WRs in Great Spots (6X)

Mike Evans Higher than 97.5 Receiving Yards

• Mike Evans will earn a $3,000,000 contract bonus if he reaches 70 catches, 1,000 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns this season. He needs 5 catches and 85 receiving yards to hit those milestones.
• Baker Mayfield has been one of the hottest quarterbacks in the league, averaging 311.3 passing yards and 3.5 touchdowns per game over his last four outings.
• The Buccaneers are highly motivated in this Week 18 matchup—a win locks up the NFC South and a home playoff game next week.

Mike Evans will earn a $3,000,000 contract bonus if he totals 70/1000/10 this season.

He's currently at 65 receptions for 915 yards and 11 TDs.

He's playing against a Marshon Lattimore-less Saints secondary this week ? pic.twitter.com/PY3d8PaFzx

— Underdog (@UnderdogFantasy) January 3, 2025

Malik Nabers Higher than 69.5 Receiving Yards

• Over his last five games, Malik Nabers has averaged 93.8 receiving yards on a hefty 11.8 targets per game.
• Last week, he posted a season-high 171 receiving yards and two touchdowns in a standout performance against the Colts.
• The Eagles are expected to rest most of their key players in this meaningless Week 18 matchup as they prepare for the playoffs, making this a much softer matchup than it appears on paper.
• Nabers has surpassed 68 receiving yards in five straight games.

Brian Thomas Jr.. Higher than 80.5 Receiving Yards

• Brian Thomas Jr. has recorded at least 86 receiving yards in each of his last four games.
• He is riding a streak of five consecutive games with 10+ targets, solidifying his role as a key offensive weapon.
• In what has been a disappointing season for the Jaguars, Thomas stands out as one of the team's few bright spots. He'll look to cement his status as the franchise's go-to playmaker moving forward.
• Last week, the Colts allowed 171 receiving yards to Thomas' former college teammate, Malik Nabers, highlighting their vulnerability to elite wide receivers.

BTJ is here to stay ?@Jaguars | @BrianThomas_11 pic.twitter.com/zqelUUMj6w

— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) January 2, 2025

Emerging Second-Year WRs (3X)

For our final pairing of Week 18 player props, we're targeting a pair of second-year wide receivers in the midst of late-season breakouts. Jaxon Smith-Njigba's surge began in Week 9 with a monster 180-yard, 2-touchdown performance. For Marvin Mims Jr., the breakout started in Week 13. Both players are poised to finish their second seasons on high notes, benefiting from matchups against opponents resting key defensive stars.

Marvin Mims Jr. Higher than 29.5 Receiving Yards

• Marvin Mims Jr. has surpassed 44 receiving yards in five of his last six games. The lone exception came in a strange matchup against the Colts that featured multiple defensive scores.
• Despite limited playing time for much of the season, Mims has produced solid numbers. Prior to Week 16, he had not played more than 35% of the snaps in any game. Over the last two weeks, he has played 47% of the snaps, averaging 6.5 targets and 82.5 receiving yards per game.
• The Chiefs are resting everyone of importance in a meaningless Week 18 matchup. A loss benefits the Chiefs because it would mean there is no chance Kansas City would have to face the red-hot Bengals in the second round of the playoffs.
• This is my favorite prop of the Week 18 slate. Mims has emerged as a key piece of the Broncos offense, and I expect Sean Payton to continue dialing up plays for him—he consistently produces when given the opportunity.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Higher than 65.5 Receiving Yards

• Since Week 9, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has averaged 89.1 receiving yards per game and has recorded at least 69 yards in eight of his last nine games. The lone exception came last week in a game against the Bears, which was played in inclement weather.
• This week, Smith-Njigba will play indoors against the Rams, avoiding weather-related issues.
• The Seahawks are 5.5-point favorites in this matchup, with the Rams expected to rest several key defensive starters.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba's breakout has been one of my favorite WR storylines this season. Been on fire ever since they started getting him some more intentional targets on real-deal routes. Play was always there, he just needed the chances.

— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) December 22, 2024