How It Works

Underdog Pick'em is a fun twist on daily fantasy games where you predict whether a player will go higher or lower than their projected stats across categories like touchdowns, yards, or fantasy points. To play, simply pick at least two props from two different teams. You can choose player stats like touchdowns, rushing yards, or even fantasy points and predict whether they will go higher or lower than the projected numbers.

Payouts

Underdog Fantasy offers a payout structure that rewards you based on the number of correct selections:

• Two picks: 3x your entry
• Three picks: 6x your entry
• Four picks: 10x your entry
• Five picks: 20x your entry

This article highlights a few of my favorite player props for Week 16, featuring a trio of Pick'em overs. Each pick leverages correlated plays, allowing us to take advantage of scenarios where production on one side boosts the chances of success on the other. Despite the correlation, these props still qualify for a 3X payout because the players are on different teams. History shows that when one team’s WR1 thrives, their counterpart on the opposing side is also more likely to hit their over, making these picks a strong strategy for Week 16.

Lions-Bears Star WR Overs (3X)

The Lions defense has been decimated by injuries and will struggle to contain the Bears offense. On the other side, the passing offense will have to stay aggressive due to the potential defensive struggles. Plus, the loss of David Montgomery will put more on the shoulders of Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown and the Detroit passing attack.

Amon-Ra St. Brown Higher than 68.5 Receiving Yards

• With Detroit's defensive injuries, another shootout is expected after last week’s 90-point game. While this week’s total may not reach that level, expect plenty of scoring against Chicago.
• The Lions will be without David Montgomery, one of their two starting running backs. This could force the team to lean more on the passing game, as Jahmyr Gibbs isn’t built to handle 25+ touches per game. Backup options like Sione Vaki and Craig Reynolds may see limited action, but most of Montgomery's vacated touches are likely to go to the pass catchers, particularly Amon-Ra St. Brown.
• St. Brown saw a season-high 18 targets last week, turning them into 14 catches for 193 yards and a touchdown.
• He has surpassed 70 receiving yards in three of his last five games, making this line well within reach in a pass-heavy game script.

D.J. Moore Higher than 60.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards

• When these teams met three weeks ago, Moore was targeted 16 times, catching 8 passes for 97 yards and a touchdown.
• The Lions have allowed at least 80 yards to the opposing WR1 in four of their last five games.
• Over his last five games, Moore has averaged 7.2 catches for 72 yards per game, surpassing 60 receiving yards in four of those five games.
• Last week, despite falling short of 60 receiving yards (46 yards), Moore added 24 rushing yards for a total of 70 yards. He looked explosive out of the backfield, averaging 8 yards per carry. Expect him to see more rushing opportunities moving forward, giving him two strong paths to hit this total.
• The Lions defense is decimated by injuries, with 15 defensive players sidelined, including key contributors like Aidan Hutchinson (broken leg), Mekhi Wingo (knee), and Malcolm Rodriguez (ACL). Last week alone, they lost three more defenders, including Alim McNeill (knee) and Carlton Davis III (jaw). This banged-up unit allowed 48 points to the Bills last week.

Freezing in Buffalo (3X)

Expect a lot of runs and short passes in this one, which will be played in sub-15-degree temperatures. The Bills defense is vulnerable against the run, and the Patriots are unlikely to give up on trying to run the ball even if they fall behind early. 

Rhamondre Stevenson Higher than 12.5 Rushing Attempts

• Since Week 8, Rhamondre Stevenson has averaged 15.6 carries per game.
• He has surpassed 12.5 rushing attempts in five of his last seven games. In one of the two games he didn’t, he played just 42% of the snaps—his lowest total of the season.
• The Bills are weak against opposing running backs, allowing the second-most fantasy points above expectation to the position this season.

Dalton Kincaid Higher than 35.5 Receiving Yards

• Dalton Kincaid returned to the lineup last week, catching four passes for 53 yards on seven targets. It’s clear he remains one of Josh Allen’s favorite options.
• Over the last three weeks, the Patriots have struggled to defend athletic tight ends, allowing 9 catches for 87 yards to both Trey McBride and Jonnu Smith.
• The Patriots defense is particularly vulnerable to athletic check-down tight ends like Kincaid, making this matchup favorable.

Exploiting Bad Defenses (3X)

The Raiders passing attack gets a boost with the return of Aidan O'Connell and gets to face a brutal Jacksonville defense that made 2024 Aaron Rodgers look like 2014 Aaron Rodgers last week. Brian Thomas Jr. is the latest LSU rookie wide receiver to emerge as a superstar during his rookie season, following in the footsteps of Odell Beckham Jr., Justin Jefferson, and Ja'Marr Chase.

Jakobi Meyers Higher than 66.5 Receiving Yards

• Jakobi Meyers has recorded at least 67 receiving yards in four of his last six games.
• Over that stretch, he’s averaged 6.7 catches for 79.5 yards on 10.3 targets per game.
• Opposing WR1s have consistently torched the Jaguars defense.
  • Last week, Davante Adams exploded for 9 catches, 198 yards, and 2 touchdowns.
  • Two weeks earlier, Nico Collins posted 8 catches for 119 yards.
  • The week prior, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams combined for 15 catches, 285 yards, and 3 touchdowns against Jacksonville.