How It Works

Underdog Pick'em is a fun twist on daily fantasy games where you predict whether a player will go higher or lower than their projected stats across categories like touchdowns, yards, or fantasy points. To play, simply pick at least two props from two different teams. You can choose player stats like touchdowns, rushing yards, or even fantasy points and predict whether they will go higher or lower than the projected numbers.

Payouts

Underdog Fantasy offers a payout structure that rewards you based on the number of correct selections:

• Two picks: 3x your entry
• Three picks: 6x your entry
• Four picks: 10x your entry
• Five picks: 20x your entry

This article highlights a few of my favorite player props for Week 15. We are going with a trio of Pick 'Em overs this week, all three of which are correlated plays.

Last week broke a long streak of winning weeks, as we merely broke even. Our Adam Thielen receiving and Saquon Barkley rushing Pick Em hit. We nearly hit on another of the three Pick Ems. Jaxon Smith-Njigba hit, and we had Marvin Harrison Jr.'s first-half receiving prop, but came up 3.5 yards short. He had a 16-yard first-half grab that was called back due to holding. Lastly, we only hit half of our Monday Night Football prop. Rico Dowdle Higher than 63.5 rushing yards was an easy win, but Joe Burrow did not make his rushing over on the other side.

Ravens in Runaway (5.4X)

The Ravens are massive 16-point favorites against the Giants, with cold and rainy conditions expected. This should result in a run-heavy script for Baltimore. Both Derrick Henry and Justice Hill are excellent picks to hit their overs in this scenario. For the third leg, we’re avoiding the Giants entirely and turning to Jayden Daniels, whose passing prop looks favorable given the matchup.

Derrick Henry Higher than 107.5 Rushing/Receiving Yards

• In Ravens wins, Henry averages 142.1 total yards per game (132.1 rushing and 10.0 receiving), with a median of 136.5 total yards.
• When the Ravens win by a touchdown or more, Henry has eclipsed 130+ total yards in every instance this season.
• Baltimore is fresh off a bye week and in the midst of a playoff push, while the Giants—decimated by injuries—are on track to pick second overall in the NFL draft.
• The Giants defense is especially weakened with the loss of star defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II, making this a favorable matchup for one of the NFL’s best rushing attacks.

Justice Hill Higher than 13.5 Rushing Yards

• Hill’s median rushing yardage in Ravens wins is 17.5 yards.
• In the two games the Ravens won by multiple touchdowns, Hill tallied 96 and 58 total yards, showing his ability to produce in blowouts.

Jayden Daniels Higher than 211.5 Passing Yards

• Daniels’ median passing yardage in 12 full games this season is 229.5, with at least 184 yards in every outing.
• Over the past six weeks, the Saints have allowed a median of 253.0 passing yards per game.
• In their last four games against non-division opponents, New Orleans has given up at least 227 passing yards in each matchup.

Playing for the Future: Rico Dowdle and Bryce Young (3X)

While the Cowboys (5-8) and Panthers (3-10) have less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs, this game holds individual importance for players like Rico Dowdle and Bryce Young. For Young, every game is an opportunity to prove he’s the future of the Panthers franchise. For Dowdle, these final weeks of the 2024 season are crucial to solidifying his value as he heads into free agency after years of grinding for his opportunity.

Rico Dowdle Higher than 12.5 Receiving Yards

• Over his last seven games, Dowdle has averaged 4.0 targets per game, showing steady involvement in the passing game.
• While his efficiency has been low—averaging 5.3 or fewer yards per target in each of the seven games—the volume supports his ability to surpass this modest line.
• Dowdle has played over 70% of the snaps in each of the past two weeks, solidifying his role as a true workhorse in the Cowboys offense.

Rico Dowdle has been tremendous as of late. https://t.co/9KHipmsx6V

— Blogging The Boys (@BloggingTheBoys) December 13, 2024

Bryce Young Higher than 204.5 Passing Yards

• Since regaining the starting job in Week 8, Young has averaged 212.2 passing yards per game, with a median output of 207.5 yards.
• While the Panthers are just 2-3 over their last five games, each loss has been by less than one score, and Young has shown composure in key moments.
• The Cowboys defense has allowed over 207 passing yards in seven of their last eight games. Their lone exception was against Drew Lock, and last week, they were torched by Joe Burrow for 369 passing yards.

Bills-Lions Shootout (6X)

The Bills gave up 44 points to the Rams last week in a 44-42 loss. This is the same Rams offense that was held to 12 points last night. If that’s what happened against the Rams, imagine what will happen against Detroit, the NFL’s best offense (32.1 PPG). Buffalo’s offense has also been red hot, ranking second in the NFL in scoring (30.5 PPG). This matchup has shootout potential written all over it.

David Montgomery Higher than 57.5 Rushing Yards

• Over the last six weeks, Montgomery has averaged 14.5 carries for 59.3 yards per game, with a median of 62.0 rushing yards.
• The Bills defense struggles against power-running games. The only rushing attack in the same tier as the elite Lions is the Ravens. Derrick Henry memorably racked up 199 yards against Buffalo, and Jonathan Taylor, a big back similar to Montgomery, rushed for 114 yards.
• In the last two weeks, Buffalo has allowed 230 total rushing yards to Rams and 49ers running backs.

Jameson Williams Higher than 51.5 Receiving Yards

• Since returning in Week 10, Williams has exceeded 53 receiving yards in four of five games, with a median of 72.0 yards.
• Last week, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua combined for 254 receiving yards against this Bills defense.

Khalil Shakir Higher than 54.5 Receiving Yards

• Shakir missed time early in the season but took over as the lead receiver in Buffalo’s offense in Week 7. Since then, he has averaged 6.4 catches for 69.4 receiving yards, with a median of 65.0 yards.
• Over his last seven games, the only time Shakir failed to top 50 receiving yards was in a snowstorm against the 49ers. Playing in a dome this week against Detroit, he’s in a great spot. Last week in a dome, he recorded 106 yards.
• Shakir will primarily face Amik Robertson, who has been one of the lowest-graded cornerbacks in the NFL this season.