Underdog Pick Em: Week 12

Dan Hindery looks at the top Week 12 Underdog Player Props to target

Dan Hindery's Underdog Pick Em: Week 12 Dan Hindery Published 11/22/2024

© Eamon Horwedel-Imagn Images

How It Works

Underdog Pick'em is a fun twist on daily fantasy games where you predict whether a player will go higher or lower than their projected stats across categories like touchdowns, yards, or fantasy points. To play, simply pick at least two props from two different teams. You can choose player stats like touchdowns, rushing yards, or even fantasy points, and predict whether they will go higher or lower than the projected numbers.

Payouts

Underdog Fantasy offers a payout structure that rewards you based on the number of correct selections:

  • Two picks: 3x your entry
  • Three picks: 6x your entry
  • Four picks: 10x your entry
  • Five picks: 20x your entry

This article highlights a few of my favorite player props for Week 12. We are going with a trio of Pick 'Em overs this week, all three of which are correlated plays. Let's try to stay hot for the third week in a row.

Ground Game in Lions-Colts (3X)

underdog pick em 1

Anthony Richardson Higher than 40.5 Rushing Yards

  • Richardson appeared healthy after his time off, and there was a clear shift in strategy to utilize him more as a runner. Last week, he had 10 designed runs, resulting in 32 yards and two rushing touchdowns. While the yardage was modest, it was the second-most carries he’s had this season, emphasizing a greater focus on his legs in the game plan.

  • In his six full games this season, his median rushing output is 41.0 yards, aligning closely with this prop.

  • Detroit’s heavy use of man coverage creates opportunities for quarterbacks to scramble. They’ve allowed 29 or more rushing yards to five different quarterbacks this season, including Mason Rudolph, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, and Geno Smith—decent athletes but not on Richardson’s level.

David Montgomery Higher than 54.5 Rushing Yards

  • Montgomery has rushed for at least 73 yards in half of his games this season, showcasing consistent productivity.

  • He excels against defenses vulnerable to the run, a description that fits the Colts perfectly. Indianapolis has faced the second-most rushing attempts per game (32.2) and allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game (143.1).

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Hot Hands in Seahawks-Cardinals (3X)

underdog pick em 2

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Higher than 55.5 Receiving yards

  • I’m returning to Smith-Njigba for the second week in a row, as I believe this is a genuine Year 2 breakout rather than a brief flash of success. Over his last two games, he’s averaged 8.5 catches for 145.0 yards on 12.0 targets per game.

  • Smith-Njigba’s best game as a rookie came at home against Seattle, where he recorded a season-high 63 receiving yards.

  • Over his last three games, he has accounted for 45% of Seattle’s receiving yards, the highest percentage of any player in the NFL during that span.

James Conner Higher than 69.5 Rushing yards

  • In his nine healthy games this season, Conner’s median rushing output is 86 yards, and he has logged at least 18 carries in six of those games.

  • Seattle allows 138.6 rushing yards per game, the sixth-most in the league, making this a favorable matchup for Conner.

  • In his last game against Seattle, Conner had a dominant performance with 27 carries for 150 yards and a touchdown.

Star Receivers Shine (3X)

underdog pick em 3

Mike Evans Higher than 55.5 Receiving Yards

  • Evans returns after a five-week absence due to a hamstring injury. The big question is whether he will be eased back into action or handle a typical workload. If he plays his usual snaps, he is a strong favorite to hit the over. My hunch is that Evans immediately slides back into his normal role, which should be substantial given that Chris Godwin is out.

  • He has dominated in six career matchups against the Giants, with these receiving lines:

    • 8-150-0
    • 5-67-1
    • 6-120-1
    • 8-190-3
    • 5-55-1
    • 6-73-1

  • Faces a favorable matchup against Deonte Banks, who has allowed a league-high 137.8 passer rating on targets against. He needs to average 95 receiving yards per game the rest of the season to maintain his streak of 1,000-yard seasons, and Baker Mayfield and the coaching staff are likely aware of this milestone.

Malik Nabers Higher than 59.5 Receiving Yards

  • Nabers’ career median is 68.5 receiving yards on 11.5 targets, and given the matchup, something around 12 targets should be expected here.

  • Nabers could see a boost in production with the quarterback change to Tommy DeVito. Daniel Jones often hesitated to trust his wide receivers, contributing to a drop in Nabers’ output. “His intentions with the ball are precise,” Nabers said of DeVito. “He’s able to deliver the ball before you get out of your break… That’s what we need.”

  • Tampa Bay allows 264.1 receiving yards per game (third-most in the NFL), with opponents passing on 60.8% of plays, the fifth-highest rate in the league.

 

Photos provided by Imagn Images
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