Underdog Pick Em: Week 2

Photo: USA Today Sports

For those unfamiliar, Underdog Pick'em is an exciting daily fantasy game where players can make predictions on player performance across various stats. The concept is simple: choose whether a player will go higher or lower on their projected stats, and if all your selections are correct, you can win big.

How It Works
To get started, you need to pick at least two props from two different teams. These can range from a player’s touchdowns, passing yards, or even fantasy points. You’ll select whether each prop will go higher or lower than the projected stat.

Payouts
The payout structure is designed to reward you based on the number of selections in your ticket. The more props you add, the higher the potential payout. Typically, Underdog Fantasy's pick'em contests follow these payout multiples:

• Two picks: 3x
• Three picks: 6x
• Four picks: 10x
• Five picks: 20x

I’ll note if any of the picks given in this article have a different payout structure for you to keep in mind. So, whether you're placing a simple two-pick ticket or shooting for the stars with five, there are plenty of options.

Thursday Night Special (10X)

Josh Allen – Higher than 0.5 Total Yards

• Josh Allen is a "free square" this week, thanks to Underdog's special promo reducing his passing + rushing yard line to just 0.5 total yards. This makes Allen an easy pick to hit, allowing players to focus on maximizing their remaining selections for a higher potential payout.

De'Von Achane – Higher than 0.5 Touchdowns

• De'Von Achane has a golden opportunity to claim the Dolphins' lead role with Raheem Mostert sidelined, but his availability hinges on overcoming an ankle injury. Optimism remains that Achane will play, but his final status will be determined after pregame warmups.

• Achane excelled against the Bills in 2023, rushing for 157 yards and three touchdowns across two games. If healthy, he could build on that success and once again be a key contributor against Buffalo.

Khalil Shakir – Higher than 3.5 Receptions

• Khalil Shakir emerged as a reliable option for Josh Allen in Week 1, stepping up and showing strong chemistry with the quarterback. Shakir's athletic 11-yard touchdown showcased his ability to make big plays, and with Keon Coleman likely facing a tough matchup against Jalen Ramsey, Shakir should be Allen’s top wide receiver target in Week 2.

• Shakir's matchup against Miami's slot cornerback, Kader Kohou, presents a favorable opportunity. Kohou struggled in Week 1, ranking 91st out of 94 qualifying cornerbacks with a PFF grade of 41.1, making this a battle Shakir should exploit to build on his strong start.

Dalton Kincaid – Higher than 22.5 First Half Receiving Yards

• The decision to focus on Kincaid's first-half receiving yards prop is based on Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady's comment that the Bills “would love to get him going a little earlier.” After Kincaid's slow start in Week 1, Buffalo is likely to make a concerted effort to involve him early, giving this first-half line more appeal than the full-game prop.

• Week 1's lack of production for Kincaid shouldn’t raise alarm bells. The Bills faced an odd game script, with Josh Allen only attempting two passes by the two-minute warning of the first half, largely due to Arizona's focus on draining the clock. As defenses shift focus to other playmakers like Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir, Kincaid should see more opportunities moving forward.

• Despite the limited targets, Kincaid's Week 1 role was encouraging, with an 83% route participation rate. He entered the season as a Top 5 fantasy tight end for a reason, and his presence as a primary read on several plays signals his importance in Buffalo’s offense for the rest of the season.

OC Joe Brady says it was clear the Cardinals defense was keying on Dalton Kincaid on Sunday. Kincaid finished the game against Arizona with just one reception for 11 yards: “Would love to get him going a little earlier but it didn’t bother him at all.” #Bills #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/NrpMRefSvl

— alex brasky (@alexbrasky) September 9, 2024

Lions-Buccaneers Shootout (38X)

CeeDee Lamb – Higher than 0.5 Total Yards

• CeeDee Lamb is a "free square" this week, thanks to Underdog's special promo reducing his yardage line to just 0.5 total yards. This makes Lamb an easy pick to hit, allowing players to focus on maximizing their remaining selections for a higher potential payout.

Jared Goff – Higher than 266.5 Passing Yards

• Tampa Bay's defense has been a "pass funnel," allowing the third-most passing yards per game last season while ranking fifth in fewest rushing yards allowed. This matchup sets up well for Goff, who has consistently thrived against this defense.

• In two meetings with the Buccaneers last season, Goff threw for 287 yards in the playoffs and 353 yards with two touchdowns in their regular-season matchup. With Tampa Bay's defensive tendencies remaining similar, Goff is well-positioned to exceed 266.5 passing yards in Week 2.

Jahmyr Gibbs – Higher than 26.5 Receiving Yards

• Jahmyr Gibbs had a strong start in Week 1, catching 4 passes for 34 yards on 6 targets, and he tallied 4 catches for 40 yards against this same Buccaneers defense in last year's playoffs. With his role as a pass-catcher continuing to grow, Gibbs is poised for another productive game through the air.

• The Lions made it clear in the offseason that they want to increase Gibbs' involvement as a receiver, with teammate Amon-Ra St. Brown even jokingly offering to buy him anything if he can hit 1,000 rushing and 1,000 receiving yards. The fact that there’s even talk of 1,000 receiving yards makes this 26.5-yard prop look undervalued.

Jalen McMillan – Higher than 29.5 Receiving Yards

• Jalen McMillan’s Week 1 stats are misleading, as he caught just one pass—a 32-yard touchdown—but narrowly missed out on additional big plays. He was overthrown on a deep route and drew a pass interference penalty that could have resulted in another long touchdown.

• McMillan led the Buccaneers’ receivers in both snaps (82%) and routes run (30), establishing himself as a key part of the offense. Tampa Bay’s heavy usage of 11 personnel (fourth-highest rate in the NFL) ensures that McMillan is firmly entrenched as one of the top three receivers.

• The Lions’ secondary, which gave up 304 passing yards to the Rams in Week 1, could struggle again against another team that leans heavily on 11 personnel. This matchup provides McMillan with a strong opportunity to capitalize on his role in the Buccaneers' offense.

Bucky Irving – Higher than 0.5 Touchdowns

• Bucky Irving impressed in his debut, rushing for a team-high 62 yards on just nine carries, averaging an efficient 6.9 yards per attempt. His performance marked the highest yards-per-carry average for a Buccaneer in their first career game (minimum two carries), making him an immediate standout in Tampa Bay's backfield.

• While Rachaad White remains a key part of the offense, Irving’s effectiveness in Liam Coen’s system gives him the opportunity to carve out a bigger role. With Tampa Bay looking to improve their ground game, Irving could be the hot hand in a potential high-scoring matchup against Detroit.

#Bucs HC Todd Bowles on Bucky Irving:

“Buck’s a ballplayer. His height and his size do not magnify how good he is as a running back. He can run up the middle, he can catch the ball, he’s tough, he finishes runs, he’s very good at making the first guy miss in the hole, and he had… pic.twitter.com/74xMsSNnb9

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) September 9, 2024

Assorted Week 3 Favorites

Brock Bowers – Higher than 3.5 Receptions

• Brock Bowers had a standout rookie debut, earning a 21.2% target share and leading the Raiders with 8 targets in Week 1. He played 68.3% of the snaps and ran routes on 96.9% of those, positioning him as a key piece of the passing game, with 6 catches for 58 yards.

• Despite facing a tough Ravens defense, the game script favors a pass-heavy approach from Las Vegas, as they enter the week as 9-point underdogs. Bowers' high route participation and role in the offense make him a strong bet to hit the over on 3.5 receptions.

Mark Andrews – Higher than 39.5 Receiving Yards

• Mark Andrews had a subpar Week 1, partly due to rust after missing the second half of training camp and facing extra attention from the Chiefs' defense. With the emergence of Isaiah Likely, defenses may shift focus, allowing Andrews to see more opportunities in Week 2.

• Andrews topped 40 receiving yards in 8 of 9 games before his injury last season, proving his consistency as a top target in the Ravens' offense. This prop offers a chance to capitalize on recency bias, as Andrews is poised to bounce back and easily clear 39.5 receiving yards.

Mark Andrews getting the bulk of zone attention to open the shallow check to Isaiah Likely in the late second quarter.

The following play, the same thing vs Andrews and an attempt to a crossing route underneath to WR.

Ravens took what Chiefs gave them. They gave them Likley. pic.twitter.com/aWBEpEKzY2

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 6, 2024

Rashid Shaheed  Higher than 34.5 Receiving Yards

• Rashid Shaheed had 73 yards on 3 catches and 5 targets in Week 1, but his numbers could have been even higher if the Saints hadn't shifted to a run-heavy approach in the second half after building a large lead. With more consistent involvement, Shaheed is poised to exceed the 34.5 receiving yards line.

• While 34.5 yards was Shaheed’s median output last season, he topped 60 receiving yards in 40% of his games, showing his big-play potential. As the Saints are 6-point underdogs against the Cowboys, a pass-heavy game script could lead to another strong outing for Shaheed as he continues his breakout season.

Garrett Wilson – Higher than 5.5 Receptions

• Garrett Wilson saw heavy involvement in Week 1, turning 11 targets into 6 catches for 60 yards. Despite the Jets' offense being streaky, Wilson was the go-to target on a 12-play, 70-yard touchdown drive, converting three straight third-and-long passes, and his volume is sure to remain high.

• “We got to get the ball more to ‘G,’” Aaron Rodgers said on The Pat McAfee Show. “I think he had, how many targets (did) he finish with? You know, we just didn’t have any plays last night. We had a 12-play touchdown drive with some three and outs. We turned the ball over twice within the first three plays of a drive. So it wasn’t sustained drives.”

The Aaron Rodgers to Garrett Wilson connection looked REAL GOOD on Saturday #PMSLive #TakeFlight pic.twitter.com/ouR2N9oPWu

— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) August 28, 2023

Jerome Ford – Higher than 18.5 Receiving Yards

• Jerome Ford played 75% of the snaps in Week 1, catching 6 passes for 25 yards, a clear sign that his role has increased compared to last season. In games where he saw the most snaps last year, he was targeted 6 or more times 80% of the time, indicating continued involvement in the passing game.

• Cleveland faces Jacksonville, whose defense allowed 9 catches for 86 yards to Dolphins running backs in Week 1. With Ford's expanded role and favorable matchup, he's well-positioned to surpass 18.5 receiving yards.