Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason, I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania V tournament, excitement has been growing each day ever since. Each week, I want to break down what has changed from the previous week regarding NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks, we are looking at NFL players, specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week, I will use the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com to examine the top 3 risers and top 3 fallers at ADP in the early, mid, and late rounds. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
Let's look at the last two weeks worth of data (8/13-8/20) and find the top 3 Risers and Fallers in the following:
- Early Rounds (1-5)
- Mid Rounds (6-12)
- Late Rounds (13-20)
Underdog Best Ball Risers
Top 3 Risers - Early Rounds
- Isiah Pacheco RB KC +2.9 ADP
- Rashee Rice WR KC +2.2 ADP
- Josh Jacobs RB GB +1.9 ADP
Top 3 Risers - Mid Rounds
- Caleb Williams QB CHI +5.0
- Rico Dowdle RB DAL +4.0
- Jerome Ford RB CLE +3.0
Top 3 Risers - Late Rounds
- Ben Sinnott TE WAS +11.6
- Braelon Allen RB NYJ +7.4
- Bo Nix QB DEN +6.1
The Risers Takeaways: Preseason games are helping us get a better gauge of players and opportunities. Strong performances from Rashee Rice, Caleb Williams, Ben Sinnott, and Bo Nix have given them a rise in ADP this week. It is important to see the rookies in game situations and how they mesh with first-team opportunities as they look to solidify their spots up the depth chart.
We have five running backs on the risers list this week, which is typically a rare occurrence for Underdog drafts. However, as we get closer to kickoff, we are seeing the positions start to level out more. Isiah Pacheco, Josh Jacobs, Rico Dowdle, Jerome Ford, and Braelon Allen are the backs who have risen in ADP this week, as they have all had strong training camps and look to have valuable roles on their teams locked up.
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Underdog Best Ball Fallers
Top 3 Fallers - Early Rounds
- George Pickens WR PIT -2.3 ADP
- Amari Cooper WR CLE -2.2 ADP
- Michael Pittman Jr WR IND -1.6 ADP
Top 3 Fallers - Mid Rounds
- DeAndre Hopkins WR TEN -5.5
- Rashid Shaheed WR NO -3.7
- Tyler Lockett WR SEA -3.1
Top 3 Fallers - Late Rounds
- Kimani Vidal RB LAC -8.3
- Justin Fields QB PIT -7.1
- DJ Chark Jr WR LAC -4.7
The Faller Takeaways: Seven of this week's nine fallers come from the wide receiver position. We see some high-end talent at the top with George Pickens, Amari Cooper, and Michael Pittman Jr. I feel now, if you want to go with an RB-RB start, you can often try to get all three of these wide receivers in rounds 3-5 and then build out your team from there. They are all strong options in best ball and offer plenty of spike week potential. The other receivers that are falling are DeAndre Hopkins, Rashid Shaheed, Tyler Lockett, and D.J. Chark Jr. We are seeing the fall of Hopkins, Shaheed, and Chark based on injury news.
Justin Fields and Kimani Vidal round out the fallers this week. Fields continues to have a very up-and-down training camp as the quarterback position remains a big question mark in Pittsburgh. Vidal has been in the news as a potential cut candidate as beat writers continue to speculate as he missed the teams first preseason game due to injury. Vidal did play in the second game and looked rather good so we might see him swap back to a riser here in the next few days.
Weekly News and Notes
- RB Kendre Miller NO - Remains injured this offseason. Week 1 status uncertain.
- QB Justin Herbert LAC - Was seen participating in practice
- WR Curtis Samuel BUF - Week to week with turf toe injury
- QB Jayden Daniels WAS - Officially named Commanders starting QB
- RB Jaylen Warren PIT - Could miss next few weeks, status for Week 1 uncertain
- QB Gardner Minshew LV - Named the Raiders starting quarterback
- WR DeAndre Hopkins TEN - Expected to be ready for Week 1
Best Ball Industry News
Underdog Fantasy - Best Ball Mania V is alive and well, sitting at a 76.7% (67.2% last week) fill rate - 516,500/672,672, with 64,000 new entries this past week. It is a $25 entry tournament with a 1st place prize of $1,500,000. Underdog is also currently offering a variety of other contests ranging from $5-$1000 entry fees, such as The Puppy Superflex, The Sprint, The Eliminator, Weekly Winners, The Marathon, The Big Dog, and The Mastiff.
Drafters - Drafters released a $2.5 Million Best Ball tournament with a $15 entry fee and a top prize of $500,000. It is currently 81,700/186,672 full, which is up 16,000 entries this week.
DraftKings - DraftKings released their big $20 entry Best Ball tournament for 2024. It has a $1.5 million to 1st place price, but you must beat out 882,144 entries to win the prize. This contest is playoff-style, with the Top 2 out of 12 advancing out of Round 1 (Week 1 through Week 14). After that, the top team in Week 15 and Week 16 will make it into the Week 17 Finals. This contest currently sits at 535,400/882,144 full, which is up 68,000 entries. DraftKings also released a slew of other tournaments at various price ranges of $3-$10,000 in entry fees.
Other sites with Best Ball offerings are FFPC, Yahoo, FanDuel, and BestBall10s.
Author Bio
I have been playing Best Ball for five-plus years now and have learned valuable lessons along the way. I want to share that knowledge with our customers at Footballguys.com. My name is James Brimacombe, and my username on Underdog Fantasy and around the various Best Ball and DFS sites is "Eaglezzz". I will be honest with you each week as I try to help guide you on your own personal Best Ball journey in 2024. I have made mistakes over the years but have also done a few things correctly. I will always give you my knowledge from both angles. You can always follow me on Twitter as I share my Best Ball thoughts there daily and am always happy to answer questions via replies or DMs. You can follow along here @JamesBrimacombe.
Be sure to check out Underdog Fantasy. You can join their Best Ball Mania V contest here. Being a Footballguys subscriber, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100 if you're a first-time depositor. Have fun, and see you in the lobby!
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