Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason, I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania V tournament, excitement has been growing each day ever since. Each week, I want to break down what has changed from the previous week regarding NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks, we are looking at NFL players, specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week, I will use the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com to examine the top 3 risers and top 3 fallers at ADP in the early, mid, and late rounds. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
Let's look at the last two weeks worth of data (8/6-8/13) and find the top 3 Risers and Fallers in the following:
- Early Rounds (1-5)
- Mid Rounds (6-12)
- Late Rounds (13-20)
Underdog Best Ball Risers
Top 3 Risers - Early Rounds
- Rashee Rice WR KC +2.2 ADP
- Isiah Pacheco RB KC +1.8 ADP
- Cooper Kupp WR LAR +1.7 ADP
Top 3 Risers - Mid Rounds
- Darnell Mooney WR ATL +2.7
- Romeo Doubs WR GB +2.5
- Kyler Murray QB ARI +2.4
Top 3 Risers - Late Rounds
- Justin Fields QB PIT +10.4
- Jalen Tolbert WR DAL +4.7
- Ricky Pearsall WR SF +4.2
The Risers Takeaways: We have six out of the nine risers this week at the wide receiver position in Rashee Rice, Cooper Kupp, Darnell Mooney, Romeo Doubs, Jalen Tolbert, and Ricky Pearsall. At the top, Rice and Kupp continue to be strong buys as we have only received good news from both players of late, and their teammates are both battling injuries right now, heading into Week 1. Mooney and Doubs are strong plays in the middle rounds as they seem to be locked into top 2 roles on each of their offenses and will have plenty of opportunity to perform. In the later rounds, Tolbert and Pearsall are both on strong passing offenses and look to be locked in as WR3s on their teams.
Isiah Pacheco is the lone running back on the risers this week, and he continues to rise week after week with little competition behind him in the Kansas City backfield. At quarterback, we have Kyler Murray rising as he looks healthier and more explosive and might be primed for an elite fantasy season. Justin Fields is the biggest riser this week as he is up almost a full round as speculation grows that he might be the Week 1 starter in Pittsburgh.
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Underdog Best Ball Fallers
Top 3 Fallers - Early Rounds
- George Pickens WR PIT -1.6 ADP
- Christian Kirk WR JAC -1.4 ADP
- Jayden Reed WR GB -1.3 ADP
Top 3 Fallers - Mid Rounds
- Ezekiel Elliott RB DAL -3.1
- DeAndre Hopkins WR TEN -2.5
- Ladd McConkey WR LAC -2.3
Top 3 Fallers - Late Rounds
- Javon Baker WR NE -4.7
- Ben Sinnott TE WAS -4.4
- Xavier Legette WR CAR -3.8
The Faller Takeaways: Seven out of the nine fallers this week are wide receivers, as we see the position flip-flop around the last few weeks. George Pickens, Christian Kirk, Jayden Reed, DeAndre Hopkins, Ladd McConkey, Javon Baker, and Xavier Legette are the fallers at the position this week. Honestly I can see the falls for Hopkins and McConkey because of the injuries but the others I am not quite sure why the fall in ADP as I like them all at their current cost in a wide receiver hungary best ball site like Underdog.
Ezekiel Elliott is the lone running back faller, and reports continue to come out that he is out of shape and not looking so sharp in camp. He is also a veteran, but a veteran that the Cowboys trust in pass protection, so he should see plenty of usage to start the season. However, the fear is that he might fade away as the weeks go on. Ben Sinnott is the last of the fallers, and there has been little news on his camp progress so far. But he is one big play away from a spike in ADP. We are seeing no quarterbacks in the fallers this week as the closer we get to the season, the position is becoming more solidified, and they are slowly moving up the board.
Weekly News and Notes
- RB Jahmyr Gibbs DET - Suffered hamstring injury in practice.
- WR Odell Beckham Jr MIA - Remains on PUP and is week-to-week
- WR Malik Nabers NYG - Slight injury but comes away from it with day-to-day status
- RB Kendre Miller NO - Still sidelined with hamstring injury
- QB Deshaun Watson CLE - Cleared for full contact
- WR Hollywood Brown KC - Uncertain for Week 1
- RB MarShawn Lloyd GB - Suffered a hamstring injury
- TE Logan Thomas FA - Let go by the 49ers
Best Ball Industry News
Underdog Fantasy - Best Ball Mania V is alive and well, sitting at a 67.2% (58.9% last week) fill rate - 452,000/672,672, with 55,000 new entries this past week. It is a $25 entry tournament with a 1st place prize of $1,500,000. Underdog is also currently offering a variety of other contests ranging from $5-$1000 entry fees, such as The Puppy Superflex, The Sprint, The Eliminator, Weekly Winners, The Marathon, The Big Dog, and The Mastiff.
Drafters - Drafters released a $2.5 Million Best Ball tournament with a $15 entry fee and a top prize of $500,000. It is currently 65,700/186,672 full, which is up 11,000 entries this week.
DraftKings - DraftKings released their big $20 entry Best Ball tournament for 2024. It has a $1.5 million to 1st place price, but you must beat out 882,144 entries to win the prize. This contest is playoff-style, with the Top 2 out of 12 advancing out of Round 1 (Week 1 through Week 14). After that, the top team in Week 15 and Week 16 will make it into the Week 17 Finals. This contest currently sits at 467,400/882,144 full, which is up 56,000 entries. DraftKings also released a slew of other tournaments at various price ranges of $3-$10,000 in entry fees.
Other sites with Best Ball offerings are FFPC, Yahoo, FanDuel, and BestBall10s.
Author Bio
I have been playing Best Ball for five-plus years now and have learned valuable lessons along the way. I want to share that knowledge with our customers at Footballguys.com. My name is James Brimacombe, and my username on Underdog Fantasy and around the various Best Ball and DFS sites is "Eaglezzz". I will be honest with you each week as I try to help guide you on your own personal Best Ball journey in 2024. I have made mistakes over the years but have also done a few things correctly. I will always give you my knowledge from both angles. You can always follow me on Twitter as I share my Best Ball thoughts there daily and am always happy to answer questions via replies or DMs. You can follow along here @JamesBrimacombe.
Be sure to check out Underdog Fantasy. You can join their Best Ball Mania V contest here. Being a Footballguys subscriber, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100 if you're a first-time depositor. Have fun, and see you in the lobby!
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