Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason, I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania V tournament, excitement has been growing each day ever since. Each week, I want to break down what has changed from the previous week regarding NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks, we are looking at NFL players, specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week, I will use the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com to examine the top 3 risers and top 3 fallers at ADP in the early, mid, and late rounds. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
Let's look at the last two weeks worth of data (07/30-8/6) and find the top 3 Risers and Fallers in the following:
- Early Rounds (1-5)
- Mid Rounds (6-12)
- Late Rounds (13-20)
Underdog Best Ball Risers
Top 3 Risers - Early Rounds
- Calvin Ridley WR TEN +1.9 ADP
- Rashee Rice WR KC +1.2 ADP
- De'Von Achane RB MIA +1.1 ADP
Top 3 Risers - Mid Rounds
- Ja'Lynn Polk WR NE +2.8
- T.J. Hockenson TE MIN +2.3
- Romeo Doubs WR GB +1.7
Top 3 Risers - Late Rounds
- Greg Dortch WR ARI +4.9
- Tyler Allgeier RB ATL +4.3
- Justin Fields QB PIT +4.2
The Risers Takeaways: This week, we are seeing the effects of DeAndre Hopkins's injury as he has fallen down in ADP due to his injury, and his teammate Calvin Ridley is on the rise. We are seeing the same with Marquise Brown falling as we get a little more clarity on the Rashee Rice legal battle, and he continues to rise in ADP.
Some other newsworthy risers this week are T.J. Hockenson, who is solely rising because there is a quote out there that he is ahead of schedule on his recovery. I am still skeptical of his recovery and buying in at his current ADP but there definitely is a risk-reward scenario with drafting any injured players. Romeo Doubs is getting high praise at Packers camp and standing out in a loaded wide receiver room. Justin Fields is gaining buzz as Russell Wilson continues to battle an injury in camp. We are seeing a big rise from Tyler Allgeier based on coach speak saying he will have a big role in the offense. Lastly, we have Ja'Lynn Polk in New England, who has been gaining positive camp buzz as drafters are desperate for a Patriots wide receiver to stand out. Greg Dortch is also slated as a starting wide receiver in Arizona, and his ADP is rising as drafters look to add a starting WR to their rosters.
Continue reading this content with a ELITE subscription.
An ELITE subscription is required to access content for Best Ball leagues. If this league is not a Best Ball league, you can edit your leagues here.
Underdog Best Ball Fallers
Top 3 Fallers - Early Rounds
- Davante Adams WR LV -1.1 ADP
- Brandon Aiyuk WR SF -0.8 ADP
- Marquise Brown WR KC -0.8 ADP
Top 3 Fallers - Mid Rounds
- DeAndre Hopkins WR TEN -4.8
- Justin Herbert QB LAC -4.8
- Zack Moss RB CIN -3.7
Top 3 Fallers - Late Rounds
- Kendre Miller RB NO -4.4
- Elijah Mitchell RB SF -4.1
- Kimani Vidal RB LAC -3.8
The Faller Takeaways: We have four earlier-round wide receivers as fallers this week in Davante Adams, Brandon Aiyuk, Marquise Brown, and DeAndre Hopkins. After that, we have four running backs in the later rounds in Zack Moss, Kendre Miller, Elijah Mitchell, and Kimani Vidal, who have been falling. We have a lone quarterback on the list this week in Jusin Herbert as reports came out that his Week 1 status is uncertain as he is healing from an injury.
The fallers this week have some really big names up top with Adams, Aiyuk, Brown, Hopkins, Herbert, and Moss. Aiyuk continues to be in trade rumors and drafters are scared off of the landing spot as his ADP will likely fall hard if he does leave San Francisco. Hopkins and Herbert are the recipients of ADP falling because of injuries alone, and if a new report comes out that they are healing quickly, their ADPs could shift back the other way. Kendre Miller, Elijah Mitchell, and Kimani Vidal are all depth chart dependent and will have to wait how the next few weeks go to see how things shake out for them on their teams' depth charts.
Weekly News and Notes
- WR Brandon Aiyuk SF - Trade rumors continue with Browns, Patriots, and Steelers
- RB Tyjae Spears and RB Tony Pollard TEN - listed as co-starters on Titans depth chart
- TE Tucker Kraft GB - Passes physical and has been removed the PUP list
- WR Jordan Addison MIN - Oct 7th hearing scheduled
- RB Zack Moss and Chase Brown CIN - listed as co-starters on the Bengals depth chart
- RB Jamaal Williams NO - Mixing in with starters
- WR Johnny Wilson PHI - Pushing for No.3 WR role in Philadelphia
- WR Van Jefferson PIT - Remains favorite for No.2 WR spot in Pittsburgh
- WR Puka Nacua LAR - Is week-to-week with a knee injury
- WR Elijah Moore CLE - In concussion protocol
- WR Roman Wilson PIT - Sheds walking boot
- WR Tyreek Hill MIA - To sign a 3-year, $90M extension with the Dolphins
- WR DeAndre Hopkins TEN - Won't need surgery, Week 1 status up in the air
Best Ball Industry News
Underdog Fantasy - Best Ball Mania V is alive and well, sitting at a 58.9% (51.2% last week) fill rate - 397,000/672,672, with 52,000 new entries this past week. It is a $25 entry tournament with a 1st place prize of $1,500,000. Underdog is also currently offering a variety of other contests ranging from $5-$1000 entry fees, such as The Puppy Superflex, The Sprint, The Eliminator, Weekly Winners, The Marathon, The Big Dog, and The Mastiff.
Drafters - Drafters released a $2.5 Million Best Ball tournament with a $15 entry fee and a top prize of $500,000. It is currently 54,300/186,672 full, which is up 9,000 entries this week. They also have a $2 entry Mini II that is 57,200/70,008 full, which just launched and has a top prize of $25,000.
DraftKings - DraftKings released their big $20 entry Best Ball tournament for 2024. It has a $1.5 million to 1st place price, but you must beat out 882,144 entries to win the prize. This contest is playoff-style, with the Top 2 out of 12 advancing out of Round 1 (Week 1 through Week 14). After that, the top team in Week 15 and Week 16 will make it into the Week 17 Finals. This contest currently sits at 411,400/882,144 full, which is up 49,000 entries. DraftKings also released a slew of other tournaments at various price ranges of $3-$10,000 in entry fees.
Other sites with Best Ball offerings are FFPC, Yahoo, FanDuel, and BestBall10s.
Author Bio
I have been playing Best Ball for five-plus years now and have learned valuable lessons along the way. I want to share that knowledge with our customers at Footballguys.com. My name is James Brimacombe, and my username on Underdog Fantasy and around the various Best Ball and DFS sites is "Eaglezzz". I will be honest with you each week as I try to help guide you on your own personal Best Ball journey in 2024. I have made mistakes over the years but have also done a few things correctly. I will always give you my knowledge from both angles. You can always follow me on Twitter as I share my Best Ball thoughts there daily and am always happy to answer questions via replies or DMs. You can follow along here @JamesBrimacombe.
Be sure to check out Underdog Fantasy. You can join their Best Ball Mania V contest here. Being a Footballguys subscriber, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100 if you're a first-time depositor. Have fun, and see you in the lobby!
