Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason, I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania V tournament, excitement has been growing each day ever since. Each week, I want to break down what has changed from the previous week regarding NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks, we are looking at NFL players, specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week, I will use the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com to examine the top 3 risers and top 3 fallers at ADP in the early, mid, and late rounds. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
Let's look at the last two weeks worth of data (07/23-7/30) and find the top 3 Risers and Fallers in the following:
- Early Rounds (1-5)
- Mid Rounds (6-12)
- Late Rounds (13-20)
Underdog Best Ball Risers
Top 3 Risers - Early Rounds
- Rashee Rice WR KC +2.0 ADP
- James Cook RB BUF +1.5 ADP
- Anthony Richardson QB IND +1.2 ADP
Top 3 Risers - Mid Rounds
- Alvin Kamara RB NO +2.6
- Chase Brown RB CIN +2.0
- Keon Coleman WR BUF +1.9
Top 3 Risers - Late Rounds
- JK Dobbins RB LAC +3.8
- Michael Wilson WR ARI +3.2
- DJ Chark Jr WR LAC +3.2
The Risers Takeaways: This week's risers see four running backs and four wide receivers, along with a quarterback in Anthony Richardson. The running backs include James Cook, Alvin Kamara, Chase Brown, and JK Dobbins. All four of these backs have had some positive news coming out of training camp this week associated with their names. Cook has Ty Johnson and Ray Davis behind him on the depth chart, but Johnson just got dinged up early in camp. Kamara has Kendre Miller behind him, but Miller is already dealing with a hamstring injury. Chase Brown is said to be getting a majority of first-touch looks early on, and Dobbins is healthy and on the field to start camp.
The wide receivers this week are Rashee Rice, who is still battling potential legal issues; Keon Coleman, who is off to a strong start in camp; Michael Wilson, who is seeing first-team looks; and DJ Chark Jr, who is also seeing first-team opportunities for his team. The risers are continuing to come in based on positive news out of camp and we should continue to see lots of activity from now leading up to the start of the season in the ADP market.
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Underdog Best Ball Fallers
Top 3 Fallers - Early Rounds
- Calvin Ridley WR TEN -2.5 ADP
- Terry McLaurin WR WAS -1.6 ADP
- Jayden Reed WR GB -1.3 ADP
Top 3 Fallers - Mid Rounds
- Tyler Lockett WR SEA -3.0
- Adonai Mitchell WR IND -2.6
- Mike Williams WR NYJ -2.6
Top 3 Fallers - Late Rounds
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB KC -7.1
- Ben Sinnott TE WAS -3.8
- Troy Franklin WR DEN -3.6
The Faller Takeaways: Seven out of the nine fallers are at the wide receiver position; now that we are back to training camp and have some tangible news, we are starting to see shifts in ADP. Underdog is a strong WR market, and in the months leading up to camp, drafters seem to push the limits on the position and force them up the board. Now, as the news comes in, we are seeing some receivers take a hit as the other positions start to rise. Calvin Ridley, Terry McLaurin, Jayden Reed, Tyler Lockett, Adonai Mitchell, Mike Williams, and Troy Franklin are the names who saw a decrease in ADP. I think Ridley, McLaurin, and Reed are nice options if you want to start running back heavy in drafts, as they are all the top wide receivers on their teams.
Lockett, Mitchell, Williams, and Franklin come with more risk as their roles are not as locked in for their teams. You have the veteran in Lockett, who has younger talent behind him trying to overtake him. Williams is battling back from injury but looks closer to being cleared to return soon, and then should see a rise in ADP. Franklin is a guess. He is a rookie on a young offense; we don't really know his role just yet. The other two fallers this week are Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who looks to be losing the RB2 role in Kansas City, and Ben Sinnott, who we still don't know what type of role he will have in Washington.
Weekly News and Notes
- WR Ray-Ray McCloud III ATL - Seeing first-team work
- TE Theo Johnson NYG - Earning first-team reps
- TE Juwan Johnson NO - Showing progress working on the side
- WR Ricky Pearsall SF - Activated from NFI list
- WR Tank Dell HOU - Ready for training camp
- WR Rondale Moore ATL - Mostly getting backup reps
- TE Erick All CIN - Brought off NFI list
- RB Nick Chubb CLE - Unlikely to be ready for start of season
- RB Chase Brown CIN - Working with starters a lot
- QB Jordan Love GB - Signs a 4-year $220M extension
- QB Tua Tagovailoa MIA - Signs a 4-year $212M extension
- WR Andrei Iosivas CIN - Early favorite for No. 3 job
- WR Michael Gallup - Offically retires from the NFL
- WR Greg Dortch ARI - Working with the starting offense
- WR DJ Chark LAC - Running with first-team offense
- WR Jalen Tolbert DAL - Looking sharp early in camp
- TE Mike Gesicki CIN - Showing chemistry with Joe Burrow
- RB J.K. Dobbins LAC - Fully practicing in training camp
- QB Kirk Cousins ATL - Medically cleared for training camp
- RB Audric Estime DEN - Practicing in full
- WR Jameson Williams DET - Standing out early in camp
- RB Kendre Miller NO - Injures hamstring at practice
Best Ball Industry News
Underdog Fantasy - Best Ball Mania V is alive and well, sitting at a 51.2% (45.4% last week) fill rate - 345,000/672,672, with 40,000 new entries this past week. It is a $25 entry tournament with a 1st place prize of $1,500,000. Underdog is also currently offering a variety of other contests ranging from $5-$1000 entry fees, such as The Puppy Superflex, The Sprint, The Eliminator, Weekly Winners, The Marathon, The Big Dog, and The Mastiff.
Drafters - Drafters released a $2.5 Million Best Ball tournament with a $15 entry fee and a top prize of $500,000. It is currently 45,200/186,672 full, which is up 5,000 entries this week. They also have a $2 entry Mini II that is 44,500/70,008 full, which just launched and has a top prize of $25,000.
DraftKings - DraftKings released their big $20 entry Best Ball tournament for 2024. It has a $1.5 million to 1st place price, but you must beat out 882,144 entries to win the prize. This contest is playoff-style, with the Top 2 out of 12 advancing out of Round 1 (Week 1 through Week 14). After that, the top team in Week 15 and Week 16 will make it into the Week 17 Finals. This contest currently sits at 362,400/882,144 full, which is up 43,000 entries. DraftKings also released a slew of other tournaments at various price ranges of $3-$10,000 in entry fees.
Other sites with Best Ball offerings are FFPC, Yahoo, FanDuel, and BestBall10s.
Author Bio
I have been playing Best Ball for five-plus years now and have learned valuable lessons along the way. I want to share that knowledge with our customers at Footballguys.com. My name is James Brimacombe, and my username on Underdog Fantasy and around the various Best Ball and DFS sites is "Eaglezzz". I will be honest with you each week as I try to help guide you on your own personal Best Ball journey in 2024. I have made mistakes over the years but have also done a few things correctly. I will always give you my knowledge from both angles. You can always follow me on Twitter as I share my Best Ball thoughts there daily and am always happy to answer questions via replies or DMs. You can follow along here @JamesBrimacombe.
Be sure to check out Underdog Fantasy. You can join their Best Ball Mania V contest here. Being a Footballguys subscriber, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100 if you're a first-time depositor. Have fun, and see you in the lobby!
Photos provided by Imagn Images