Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason, I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania V tournament, excitement has been growing each day ever since. Each week, I want to break down what has changed from the previous week regarding NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks, we are looking at NFL players, specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week, I will use the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com to examine the top 3 risers and top 3 fallers at ADP in the early, mid, and late rounds. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
Let's look at the last two weeks worth of data (07/16-7/23) and find the top 3 Risers and Fallers in the following:
- Early Rounds (1-5)
- Mid Rounds (6-12)
- Late Rounds (13-20)
Underdog Best Ball Risers
Top 3 Risers - Early Rounds
- Isiah Pacheco RB KC +1.5 ADP
- Deebo Samuel WR SF +0.8 ADP
- Patrick Mahomes QB KC +0.7 ADP
Top 3 Risers - Mid Rounds
- Nick Chubb RB CLE +3.1
- Ricky Pearsall WR SF +2.7
- Christian Watson WR GB +2.1
Top 3 Risers - Late Rounds
- Audric Estime RB DEN +3.7
- Tyler Conklin TE NYJ +3.0
- Dameon Pierce RB HOU +2.5
The Risers Takeaways: The risers have a little bit of everything this week, with four coming from the running back position, three at wide receiver, one at tight end, and one at quarterback. The news of the week was Brandon Aiyuk requesting a trade out of San Francisco, which directly affected his ADP falling and, on the flip side, saw both Deebo Samuel and Ricky Pearsall as two of this week's risers. We have a pair of Chiefs on the risers this week in Isiah Pacheco and Patrick Mahomes II as drafters focus on looking for high-octane offenses to target in the slow news cycle month of July.
We also got some smaller news items. Nick Chubb posted a video of him working out and showing off that he has no intention of calling it quits. Audric Estime also got a clean bill of health, and that news blurb put him back on the radar in the last round of drafts for those looking to fill out their running back rooms. We also saw a positive report on Dameon Pierce in the Texans backfield, as he looks to be in line for a role in the offense. We also saw a spike in Christian Watson this week as he is up a couple of spots in ADP, and Tyler Conklin is getting some love for the late tight end builds.
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Underdog Best Ball Fallers
Top 3 Fallers - Early Rounds
- Brandon Aiyuk WR SF -2.2 ADP
- Tee Higgins WR CIN -1.7 ADP
- Jayden Reed WR GB -1.2 ADP
Top 3 Fallers - Mid Rounds
- Mike Williams WR NYJ -5.0
- Courtland Sutton WR DEN -3.0
- Xavier Legette WR CAR -2.8
Top 3 Fallers - Late Rounds
- Javon Baker WR NE -2.9
- Ben Sinnott TE WAS -2.1
- Bryce Young QB CAR -1.9
The Faller Takeaways: Brandon Aiyuk's trade request news was the biggest story of the week, and it instantly dropped his ADP with the fear that we might not see him in the 49ers offense this season. It is a good time to buy him as the uncertainty window surrounds him, especially if you can get him to fall to you in the third round. Tee Higgins and Jayden Reed are the other two big-named wide receivers who saw their ADPs take a tumble this week. I am not sure of the specific reasons Higgins is falling, but I will continue to buy in on him, especially with the chance to stack him with a decently priced Joe Burrow a few rounds later. As for Jayden Reed, it is likely the small Christian Watson spike shifting Reed down a small amount.
Mike Williams still looks to have a long way to go before making a full recovery, and we are seeing his ADP fall down the ranks. Courtland Sutton is down three spots this week. I will not be scared off of him as he remains my highest-drafted player on Underdog Fantasy. Xavier Legette, Javon Baker, and Ben Sinnott all fall in that rookie window as we like the potential upside but we just really don't know the role on their teams this early in the process. We often see rookies go up and down in ADP at this time of year for no good reason. We will start to get reports on rookies over the next few weeks and will have more solid reasons for why their ADPs will rise or fall. Bryce Young is the last faller of the week. He remains a buy late in drafts as he works in any kind of build as the Panthers look like they are committed to him for a full season hoping they can get more out of him in year two.
Weekly News and Notes
- RB Isaiah Spiller LAC - Competing for the No. 3 RB role
- TE T.J. Hockenson MIN - To be placed on PUP list.
- WR Rashee Rice KC - Still no word on league discipline
- QB Joe Burrow CIN - Officially fully cleared for contact.
- QB Jordan Love GB - Won't practice without extension.
- RB Audric Estime DEN - Avoids PUP list before camp.
- WR Rashid Shaheed NO - Gets Extension from Saints.
- TE Juwan Johnson NO - Lands on PUP list ahead of camp
- TE Tucker Kraft GB - On PUP list to start camp
- QB Daniel Jones NYG - Expected to be healthy for training camp.
- WR Brandon Aiyuk SF - Requests trade from 49ers.
- WR Kayshon Boutte NE - Gambling charge dropped
Best Ball Industry News
Underdog Fantasy - Best Ball Mania V is alive and well, sitting at a 45.4% (41.4% last week) fill rate - 305,000/672,672, with 26,000 new entries this past week. It is a $25 entry tournament with a 1st place prize of $1,500,000. Underdog is also currently offering a variety of other contests ranging from $5-$1000 entry fees, such as The Puppy Superflex, The Sprint, The Eliminator, Weekly Winners, The Marathon, The Big Dog, and The Mastiff.
Drafters - Drafters released a $2.5 Million Best Ball tournament with a $15 entry fee and a top prize of $500,000. It is currently 40,200/186,672 full, which is up 7,000 entries this week. They also have a $2 entry Mini II that is 33,200/70,008 full, which just launched and has a top prize of $25,000.
DraftKings - DraftKings released their big $20 entry Best Ball tournament for 2024. It has a $1.5 million to 1st place price, but you must beat out 882,144 entries to win the prize. This contest is playoff-style, with the Top 2 out of 12 advancing out of Round 1 (Week 1 through Week 14). After that, the top team in Week 15 and Week 16 will make it into the Week 17 Finals. This contest currently sits at 319,400/882,144 full, which is up 67,000 entries. DraftKings also released a slew of other tournaments at various price ranges of $3-$10,000 in entry fees.
Other sites with Best Ball offerings are FFPC, Yahoo, FanDuel, and BestBall10s.
Author Bio
I have been playing Best Ball for five-plus years now and have learned valuable lessons along the way. I want to share that knowledge with our customers at Footballguys.com. My name is James Brimacombe, and my username on Underdog Fantasy and around the various Best Ball and DFS sites is "Eaglezzz". I will be honest with you each week as I try to help guide you on your own personal Best Ball journey in 2024. I have made mistakes over the years but have also done a few things correctly. I will always give you my knowledge from both angles. You can always follow me on Twitter as I share my Best Ball thoughts there daily and am always happy to answer questions via replies or DMs. You can follow along here @JamesBrimacombe.
Be sure to check out Underdog Fantasy. You can join their Best Ball Mania V contest here. Being a Footballguys subscriber, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100 if you're a first-time depositor. Have fun, and see you in the lobby!
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