Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason, I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania V tournament, excitement has been growing each day ever since. Each week, I want to break down what has changed from the previous week regarding NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks, we are looking at NFL players, specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week, I will use the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com to examine the top 3 risers and top 3 fallers at ADP in the early, mid, and late rounds. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
Let's look at the last two weeks worth of data (07/09-7/16) and find the top 3 Risers and Fallers in the following:
- Early Rounds (1-5)
- Mid Rounds (6-12)
- Late Rounds (13-20)
Underdog Best Ball Risers
Top 3 Risers - Early Rounds
- Isiah Pacheco RB KC +2.0 ADP
- Cooper Kupp WR LAR +0.9 ADP
- Derrick Henry RB BAL +0.8 ADP
Top 3 Risers - Mid Rounds
- James Conner RB ARI +2.2
- Brian Robinson Jr RB WAS +2.1
- Ja'Lynn Polk WR NE +2.0
Top 3 Risers - Late Rounds
- Noah Fant TE SEA +6.1
- Tyler Boyd WR TEN +3.7
- Daniel Jones QB NYG +2.9
The Risers Takeaways: The biggest riser overall this week is Noah Fant who is now at an ADP of 166.4; he bumped up over half a round this past week. Finding any value in the late rounds for tight ends is always a hard task, and now, with Fant continuing to move up the board, we will have to look elsewhere. We see some big names at running back this week, with Isiah Pacheco on the list for the second straight week as he continues to be steamed up the board by the community. Derrick Henry, James Conner, and Brian Robinson Jr are the other big names at the position, making moves up the board as their roles seem to be more locked in at the moment.
Cooper Kupp is the biggest name at the wide receiver position on the risers list this week, as he is a high-volume pass catcher in round three who is easy to pair with any build after the opening two rounds. Ja'Lynn Polk saw a little buzz this past week as it was suggested that he might be in line to win the WR1 spot in New England. Tyler Boyd is a veteran wide receiver who found his way as a riser this week as he is up 3.7 ADP spots and is in line to be the Titans WR3 heading into training camp. The last player on the risers list this week is Daniel Jones at the quarterback position, and he makes a great option in the last couple of rounds to draft as a QB2 or QB3 in best ball. Health is the big concern for Jones, but it looks like he is currently on track to start in Week 1.
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Underdog Best Ball Fallers
Top 3 Fallers - Early Rounds
- DJ Moore WR CHI -1.0 ADP
- Christian Kirk WR JAX -0.9 ADP
- Sam LaPorta TE DET -0.8 ADP
Top 3 Fallers - Mid Rounds
- Adonai Mitchell WR IND -2.7
- Mike Williams WR NYJ -2.2
- Javonte Williams RB DEN -1.6
Top 3 Fallers - Late Rounds
- Ricky Pearsall WR SF -3.4
- Malachi Corley WR NYJ -3.0
- Zay Jones WR ARI -2.8
The Faller Takeaways: Seven of the nine fallers this week are at the wide receiver position as the lack of NFL news continues to shift the ADP values. Another reason that a lot of folks in the industry are saying is that Underdog keeps releasing Puppy or smaller high-entry level drafts with lesser experienced drafters coming in and taking other positions over WR and driving down the cost some. I don't feel like that is the case. It is more just a time in the NFL news cycle that is slow, and all ADPs continue to level out and adjust slightly. This week's wide receivers on the fallers list are DJ Moore, Christian Kirk, Adonai Mitchell, Mike Williams, Ricky Pearsall, Malachi Corley, and Zay Jones.
The only two non wide receivers on the list this week are Sam LaPorta at tight end and Javonte Williams at running back. Laporta was the TE1 overall as a rookie last season and now the market is trying to figure out where to rank him at the top of drafts. Williams falling is more based on a crowded backfield in Denver but with training camp starting up we will start to get a clear picture of the Broncos RB depth chart and ADP could adjust.
Weekly News and Notes
- RB Keaton Mitchell BAL - Starting camp on PUP list
- RB Nick Chubb CLE - Encouraging workout progress
- WR Jordan Addison MIN - Arrested on DWI charge
- WR Tee Higgins CIN - Will play on franchise tag this season
- RB Audric Estime DEN - Should be ready for camp
- WR Van Jefferson PIT - Early favorite for WR2 job
- QB Dak Prescott DAL - Out of walking boot
Best Ball Industry News
Underdog Fantasy - Best Ball Mania V is alive and well, sitting at a 41.4% (37.4% last week) fill rate - 279,000/672,672, with 27,000 new entries this past week. It is a $25 entry tournament with a 1st place prize of $1,500,000. Underdog is also currently offering a variety of other contests ranging from $5-$1000 entry fees, such as The Puppy Superflex, The Sprint, The Eliminator, Weekly Winners, The Marathon, The Big Dog, and The Mastiff.
Drafters - Drafters released a $2.5 Million Best Ball tournament with a $15 entry fee and a top prize of $500,000. It is currently 33,200/186,672 full, which is up 4,000 entries this week. They also have a $2 entry Mini II that is 24,000/70,008 full, which just launched and has a top prize of $25,000.
DraftKings - DraftKings released their big $20 entry Best Ball tournament for 2024. It has a $1.5 million to 1st place price, but you must beat out 882,144 entries to win the prize. This contest is playoff-style, with the Top 2 out of 12 advancing out of Round 1 (Week 1 through Week 14). After that, the top team in Week 15 and Week 16 will make it into the Week 17 Finals. This contest currently sits at 254,000/882,144 full, which is up 34,000 entries. DraftKings also released a slew of other tournaments at various price ranges of $3-$10,000 in entry fees.
Other sites with Best Ball offerings are FFPC, Yahoo, FanDuel, and BestBall10s.
Author Bio
I have been playing Best Ball for five-plus years now and have learned valuable lessons along the way. I want to share that knowledge with our customers at Footballguys.com. My name is James Brimacombe, and my username on Underdog Fantasy and around the various Best Ball and DFS sites is "Eaglezzz". I will be honest with you each week as I try to help guide you on your own personal Best Ball journey in 2024. I have made mistakes over the years but have also done a few things correctly. I will always give you my knowledge from both angles. You can always follow me on Twitter as I share my Best Ball thoughts there daily and am always happy to answer questions via replies or DMs. You can follow along here @JamesBrimacombe.
Be sure to check out Underdog Fantasy. You can join their Best Ball Mania V contest here. Being a Footballguys subscriber, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100 if you're a first-time depositor. Have fun, and see you in the lobby!
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