Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason, I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania V tournament, excitement has been growing each day ever since. Each week, I want to break down what has changed from the previous week regarding NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks, we are looking at NFL players, specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week, I will use the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com to examine the top 3 risers and top 3 fallers at ADP in the early, mid, and late rounds. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
Let's look at the last two weeks worth of data (07/02-7/09) and find the top 3 Risers and Fallers in the following:
- Early Rounds (1-5)
- Mid Rounds (6-12)
- Late Rounds (13-20)
Underdog Best Ball Risers
Top 3 Risers - Early Rounds
- Isiah Pacheco RB KC +1.7 ADP
- Josh Jacobs RB GB +1.2 ADP
- Travis Etienne Jr RB JAX +0.8 ADP
Top 3 Risers - Mid Rounds
- Rico Dowdle RB DAL +1.5
- Rashee Rice WR KC +1.2
- Pat Freiermuth TE PIT +1.1
Top 3 Risers - Late Rounds
- DeMario Douglas WR NE +2.8
- Elijah Mitchell RB SF +2.0
- J.K. Dobbins RB LAC +1.8
The Risers Takeaways: Wide receivers have been the hot button in Underdog drafts and have been constantly on the risers list week after week. This week is somewhat different as we only see two wide receivers in the risers section: Rashee Rice and Demario Douglas. We are still in the months of not a lot of NFL news and information, so the risers might be more roster construction-based at this time.
We have six different running backs in the risers this week with Isiah Pacheco, Josh Jacobs, and Travis Etienne as the big names in the early rounds. All three of these backs are in line for great opportunity with heavy volume in strong offenses and are going in the range where you can start drafts with three straight wide receivers and fire back with one of these star running backs.
Pat Freiermuth is the lone non-WR/RB to top the risers list this week. He battled injury and quarterback play last season but looks in line for a big bounce-back type of season. I am buying Freiermuth as my TE1 or TE2 in best ball as often as I can. The other three risers this week are all running backs: Rico Dowdle, Elijah Mitchell, and JK Dobbins. The wide receiver-heavy drafters look to fill in their zero running back builds.
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Underdog Best Ball Fallers
Top 3 Fallers - Early Rounds
- Marquise Brown WR ARI -0.8 ADP
- Keenan Allen WR CHI -0.8 ADP
- Lamar Jackson QB BAL -0.7 ADP
Top 3 Fallers - Mid Rounds
- Ricky Pearsall WR SF -2.5
- Xavier Worthy WR KC -1.7
- Caleb Williams QB CHI -1.7
Top 3 Fallers - Late Rounds
- Roman Wilson WR PIT -3.5
- Ben Sinnott TE WAS -2.2
- Javon Baker WR NE -2.2
The Faller Takeaways: Six out of the nine fallers are at the wide receiver position this week, with some solid names on the list: Marquise Brown, Keenan Allen, Xavier Worthy, Ricky Pearsall, Roman Wilson, and Javon Baker. Four out of those six are rookie receivers as the market continues to adjust before training camp and preseason open up, and we get more news on these rookies.
Lamar Jackson on the fallers list just feels wrong to me as he is the true better-in-best-ball type of play at the quarterback position. If you can find any sort of discount on Jackson, it feels like you should work to draft him into your portfolio, as he offers so much upside and spike weeks. Rounding out the fallers is Caleb Williams, who I also think is a great value currently, with the Bears looking to make a major offensive push in 2024. The last faller is Ben Sinnott, who is just leveling out after a huge ADP spike after the NFL draft. We will have to wait and see if there is any buzz on Sinnott in camp, and he could once again see a rise in ADP.
Weekly News and Notes
- QB Dak Prescott DAL - Managing foot sprain.
- RB Tank Bigsby JAX - Improving after rough rookie year.
- WR Tyreek Hill MIA - Eyeing pay bump amid rising receiver market.
- WR Jordan Addison MIN - Displaying real growth entering 2nd season.
- WR Ashton Dulin IND - Moving well as training camp nears.
- WR CeeDee Lamb DAL - Could hold out from training camp.
- WR Brandon Aiyuk SF - Hoping to stay in San Francisco.
Best Ball Industry News
Underdog Fantasy - Best Ball Mania V is alive and well, sitting at a 37.4% (33.7% last week) fill rate - 252,500/672,672, with 26,000 new entries this past week. It is a $25 entry tournament with a 1st place prize of $1,500,000. Underdog is also currently offering a variety of other contests ranging from $5-$1000 entry fees, such as The Puppy Superflex, The Sprint, The Eliminator, Weekly Winners, The Marathon, The Big Dog, and The Mastiff.
Drafters - Drafters released a $2.5 Million Best Ball tournament with a $15 entry fee and a top prize of $500,000. It is currently 29,200/186,672 full, which is up 3,000 entries this week. They also have a $2 entry Mini II that is 13,000/70,008 full, which just launched and has a top prize of $25,000.
DraftKings - DraftKings released their big $20 entry Best Ball tournament for 2024. It has a $1.5 million to 1st place price, but you must beat out 882,144 entries to win the prize. This contest is playoff-style, with the Top 2 out of 12 advancing out of Round 1 (Week 1 through Week 14). After that, the top team in Week 15 and Week 16 will make it into the Week 17 Finals. This contest currently sits at 220,000/882,144 full, which is up 23,000 entries. DraftKings also released a slew of other tournaments at various price ranges of $3-$10,000 in entry fees.
Other sites with Best Ball offerings are FFPC, Yahoo, FanDuel, and BestBall10s.
Author Bio
I have been playing Best Ball for five-plus years now and have learned valuable lessons along the way. I want to share that knowledge with our customers at Footballguys.com. My name is James Brimacombe, and my username on Underdog Fantasy and around the various Best Ball and DFS sites is "Eaglezzz". I will be honest with you each week as I try to help guide you on your own personal Best Ball journey in 2024. I have made mistakes over the years but have also done a few things correctly. I will always give you my knowledge from both angles. You can always follow me on Twitter as I share my Best Ball thoughts there daily and am always happy to answer questions via replies or DMs. You can follow along here @JamesBrimacombe.
Be sure to check out Underdog Fantasy. You can join their Best Ball Mania V contest here. Being a Footballguys subscriber, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100 if you're a first-time depositor. Have fun, and see you in the lobby!
