Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason, I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania V tournament, excitement has been growing each day ever since. Each week, I want to break down what has changed from the previous week regarding NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks, we are looking at NFL players, specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week, I will look at the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com to examine the top 3 risers and the top 3 fallers at ADP in the early, mid, and late rounds. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news coming in that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
Let's look at the last two weeks worth of data (06/24-7/02) and find the top 3 Risers and Fallers in the following:
- Early Rounds (1-5)
- Mid Rounds (6-12)
- Late Rounds (13-20)
Underdog Best Ball Risers
Top 3 Risers - Early Rounds
- Chris Godwin WR TB +1.4 ADP
- DeVonta Smith WR PHI +1.3 ADP
- Tank Dell WR HOU +1.3 ADP
Top 3 Risers - Mid Rounds
- Ja'Lynn Polk WR NE +2.8
- Jordan Addison WR MIN +2.4
- Christian Watson WR GB +2.4
Top 3 Risers - Late Rounds
- Noah Fant TE SEA +4.1
- DeMario Douglas WR NE +3.8
- Jalen McMillan WR TB +3.7
The Risers Takeaways: It's full on wide receiver season right now in the best ball streets as we see eight out of the nine risers all at the wide receiver position. At the top rounds it is Chris Godwin, DeVonta Smith, and Tank Dell as the big names in solid offenses. We are seeing these players as the WR2 on their teams and in best ball targeting a teams WR2 has plenty of benefits as sometimes the ADP price is discounted compared to the teams WR1 and in best ball you just never know which wide receiver might go off in a given week.
In the mid rounds, it is all younger wide receivers in Ja'Lynn Polk as the rookie, Jordan Addison as the potential big play second-year guy, and Christian Watson as the guy in a great offense who is still young with breakout potential but has battled injuries.
In the later rounds, we see a rookie in Jalen McMillan and a second-year player in Demario Douglas make the list as drafters are desperate at the end of drafts to find any sort of breakout potential at the wide receiver position. Rounding out the risers is Noah Fant, the only player who is not a wide receiver on the week, as he is becoming talked up more in the industry and is becoming a staple for late-round TE depth.
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Underdog Best Ball Fallers
Top 3 Fallers - Early Rounds
- Saquon Barkley RB PHI -2.0 ADP
- Josh Jacobs RB GB -1.7 ADP
- Travis Etienne Jr. RB JAX -1.1 ADP
Top 3 Fallers - Mid Rounds
- C.J. Stroud QB HOU -4.3
- Joe Burrow QB CIN -2.4
- Kenneth Walker III RB SEA -2.1
Top 3 Fallers - Late Rounds
- J.J. McCarthy QB MIN -3.3
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB NYG -3.1
- Tank Bigsby RB JAX -2.6
The Faller Takeaways: With wide receivers continuing to see all the attention at the top of draft boards, it is only fitting that all the fallers this week are either at the running back or quarterback positions. The top three names really surprise me in Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, and Travis Etienne Jr. I really think now is a great time to buy these three players at their current ADP price as they are three of the better running backs in the league and all play on emerging offenses that have potential to move the ball well and score a lot of points.
In the mid rounds, we see two massive names at the quarterback position in C.J. Stroud and Joe Burrow, who are the biggest fallers. When I see quarterbacks falling in ADP, I feel that it is more related to how drafters are currently constructing rosters and if they are looking for stacks and willing to risk passing on the quarterback for an extra round to squeeze out some value at the other positions. Ken Walker III is the third faller in the mid rounds. Again this is a player that I have been buying up recently as the workload and upside remain intact for Walker heading into 2024.
As far as the later round fallers, we have J.J. McCarthy, Tyrone Tracy Jr., and Tank Bigsby. All three of these players have plenty of depth chart question marks and are more wait and see how training camp and preseason shakes out as to if you want to invest in them in best ball.
Weekly News and Notes
- WR Brandon Aiyuk SF - Hoping to stay in San Francisco
- WR CeeDee Lamb DAL - Could hold out from training camp.
- WR Keith Kirkwood BAL - Added to the Ravens WR room.
- WR Jordan Addison MIN - Impresses at spring practices.
- WR Adam Thielen CAR - Slot role still likely in 2024.
Best Ball Industry News
Underdog Fantasy - Best Ball Mania V is alive and well, sitting at a 33.7% (28.9% last week) fill rate - 226,500/672,672, with 32,000 new entries this past week. It is a $25 entry tournament with a 1st place prize of $1,500,000. Underdog is also currently offering a variety of other contests ranging from $5-$1000 entry fees, such as The Puppy Superflex, The Sprint, The Eliminator, Weekly Winners, The Marathon, The Big Dog, and The Mastiff.
Drafters - Drafters released a $2.5 Million Best Ball tournament with a $15 entry fee and a top prize of $500,000. It is currently 26,200/186,672 full, which is up 4,700 entries this week. They also have a $2 entry Mini II that is 2,000/70,008 full, which just launched and has a top prize of $25,000.
DraftKings - DraftKings released their big $20 entry Best Ball tournament for 2024. It has a $1.5 million to 1st place price, but you must beat out 882,144 entries to win the prize. This contest is playoff-style, with the Top 2 out of 12 advancing out of Round 1 (Week 1 through Week 14). After that, the top team in Week 15 and Week 16 will make it into the Week 17 Finals. This contest currently sits at 197,000/882,144 full, which is up 28,000 entries. DraftKings also released a slew of other tournaments at various price ranges of $3-$10,000 in entry fees.
Other sites with Best Ball offerings are FFPC, Yahoo, FanDuel, and BestBall10s.
Author Bio
I have been playing Best Ball for five-plus years now and have learned valuable lessons along the way. I want to share that knowledge with our customers at Footballguys.com. My name is James Brimacombe, and my username on Underdog Fantasy and around the various Best Ball and DFS sites is "Eaglezzz". I will be honest with you each week as I try to help guide you on your own personal Best Ball journey in 2024. I have made mistakes over the years but have also done a few things correctly. I will always give you my knowledge from both angles. You can always follow me on Twitter as I share my Best Ball thoughts there daily and am always happy to answer questions via replies or DMs. You can follow along here @JamesBrimacombe.
Be sure to check out Underdog Fantasy. You can join their Best Ball Mania V contest here. Being a Footballguys subscriber, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100 if you're a first-time depositor. Have fun, and see you in the lobby!
