Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason, I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania V tournament, excitement has been growing each day ever since. Each week, I want to break down what has changed from the previous week regarding NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks, we are looking at NFL players, specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week, I will look at the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com to examine the top 3 risers and the top 3 fallers at ADP in the early, mid, and late rounds. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news coming in that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
Let's look at the last two weeks worth of data (06/19-6/24) and find the top 3 Risers and Fallers in the following:
- Early Rounds (1-5)
- Mid Rounds (6-12)
- Late Rounds (13-20)
Underdog Best Ball Risers
Top 3 Risers - Early Rounds
- Calvin Ridley WR TEN +3.0 ADP
- Derrick Henry RB BAL +1.7 ADP
- Terry McLaurin WR WAS +1.4 ADP
Top 3 Risers - Mid Rounds
- Josh Palmer WR LAC +3.6
- Diontae Johnson WR CAR +2.0
- Rhamondre Stevenson RB NE +1.9
Top 3 Risers - Late Rounds
- Jonnu Smith TE MIA +3.7
- Chuba Hubbard RB CAR +3.5
- Isaiah Likely TE BAL +3.2
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The Risers Takeaways: The biggest risers in all the categories this week are fairly modest with Jonnu Smith and Joshua Palmer as the two biggest risers on the week. We also saw some number one wide receivers on their teams in Calvin Ridley, Terry McLaurin, and Diontae Johnson all find their way onto the biggest risers of the week as the thirst for wide receiver remains on Underdog and drafters are searching to find any value they can at the position.
Derrick Henry, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Chuba Hubbard are the three biggest risers at the running back position in each of the riser tiers of drafting. Henry drafters are starting to focus on him in the third round as one of the best value options, especially if you start the draft with two straight wide receivers. Stevenson just signed a 4-year contract extension, so just being in the news bumped up his ADP. As far as Hubbard goes, he is a later-round play, and drafters are using him as a solid depth piece add when building out running back rooms. We have two tight ends in the later rounds on the riser list with Jonnu Smith and Isaiah Likely as they both get a boost near the end of drafts now with Juwan Johnson dinged up at the position.
Underdog Best Ball Fallers
Top 3 Fallers - Early Rounds
- Josh Jacobs RB GB -1.7 ADP
- Lamar Jackson QB BAL -1.1 ADP
- Michael Pittman Jr WR IND -1.0 ADP
Top 3 Fallers - Mid Rounds
- Joe Burrow QB CIN -2.8
- Caleb Williams QB CHI -2.1
- C.J. Stroud QB HOU -1.9
Top 3 Fallers - Late Rounds
- Juwan Johnson TE NO -8.5
- Rashod Bateman WR BAL -3.6
- Roman Wilson WR PIT -3.0
The Faller Takeaways: In the early and mid rounds the fallers this week all look like solid buys to me as it is filled with star players. We have four quarterbacks in the fallers section this week in Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Caleb Williams, and C.J. Stroud. I would be happy to draft any of those quarterbacks this year as they are all in very strong offenses, and we have seen those mid-round quarterbacks be a solid value this past week. Josh Jacobs and Michael Pittman also look like great buys right now, and with their falling ADP prices, you might be able to get them at an even better discount.
In the late rounds, we are seeing Juwan Johnson as the biggest faller, as he has been diagnosed with a broken foot and is not a lock to start the season now. Roman Wilson has yet to receive any positive news out of Steelers camp so it is likely his ADP will continue to decline until he does. Rashod Bateman is a surprise faller for me, but that might be more likely because he rose quickly up the board with everyone chasing wide receivers. Out of all the fallers this week I think they are all good discounted ADP prices now outside of the injured Juwan Johnson.
Weekly News and Notes
- WR Tre Tucker LV - Excels during OTAs and minicamp
- QB Jayden Daniels WAS - Works with starters at minicamp
- TE Isaiah Likely BAL - Impresses throughout OTAs
- RB Rhamondre Stevenson NE - Signs a 4-year, $36M extension.
- WR Brandon Aiyuk SF - Frustrated with negotiations.
Best Ball Industry News
Underdog Fantasy - Best Ball Mania V is alive and well, sitting at a 28.9% (26.1% last week) fill rate - 194,500/672,672, with 19,000 new entries this past week. It is a $25 entry tournament with a 1st place prize of $1,500,000. Underdog is also currently offering a variety of other contests ranging from $5-$1000 entry fees, such as The Puppy Superflex, The Sprint, The Eliminator, Weekly Winners, The Marathon, The Big Dog, and The Mastiff.
Drafters - Drafters released a $2.5 Million Best Ball tournament with a $15 entry fee and a top prize of $500,000. It is currently 21,500/186,672 full, which is up 3,000 entries this week. They also have a $2 entry Mini that is 48,000/56,004 full, which is up 9,000 entries and has a top prize of $20,000.
DraftKings - DraftKings released their big $20 entry Best Ball tournament for 2024. It has a $1.5 million to 1st place price, but you must beat out 882,144 entries to win the prize. This contest is playoff-style, with the Top 2 out of 12 advancing out of Round 1 (Week 1 through Week 14). After that, the top team in Week 15 and Week 16 will make it into the Week 17 Finals. This contest currently sits at 169,000/882,144 full, which is up 22,000 entries. DraftKings also released a slew of other tournaments at various price ranges of $3-$10,000 in entry fees.
Other sites that have Best Ball offerings - FFPC, Yahoo, FanDuel, and BestBall10s.
Author Bio
I have been playing Best Ball for five-plus years now and have learned valuable lessons along the way. I want to share that knowledge with our customers at Footballguys.com. My name is James Brimacombe, and my username on Underdog Fantasy and around the various Best Ball and DFS sites is "Eaglezzz". I will be honest with you each week as I try to help guide you on your own personal Best Ball journey in 2024. I have made mistakes over the years but have also done a few things correctly. I will always give you my knowledge from both angles. You can always follow me on Twitter as I share my Best Ball thoughts there daily and am always happy to answer questions via replies or DMs. You can follow along here @JamesBrimacombe.
Be sure to check out Underdog Fantasy. You can join their Best Ball Mania V contest here. Being a Footballguys subscriber, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100 if you're a first-time depositor. Have fun, and see you in the lobby!
