Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason, I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania V tournament, excitement has been growing each day ever since. Each week, I want to break down what has changed from the previous week regarding NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks, we are looking at NFL players, specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week, I will look at the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com to examine the top 3 risers and the top 3 fallers at ADP in the early, mid, and late rounds. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news coming in that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
Let's look at the last two weeks worth of data (06/04-6/11) and find the top 3 Risers and Fallers in the following:
- Early Rounds (1-5)
- Mid Rounds (6-12)
- Late Rounds (13-20)
Underdog Best Ball Risers
Top 3 Risers - Early Rounds
- Tank Dell WR HOU +2.2 ADP
- Marquise Brown WR KC +2.1 ADP
- DK Metcalf WR SEA +1.8 ADP
Top 3 Risers - Mid Rounds
- Rashee Rice WR KC +5.2
- Josh Downs WR IND +4.1
- Joshua Palmer WR LAC +3.0
Top 3 Risers - Late Rounds
- Rashod Bateman WR BAL +4.8
- Jermaine Burton WR CIN +4.5
- Elijah Mitchell RB SF +4.5
The Risers Takeaways: Eight out of the nine risers this week are at the wide receiver position as drafters continue to value the position above all else on the Underdog platform. If you want a solid team of wide receivers in your draft, you are almost forced to follow the trend and ADP and chase the position up the board. Rashee Rice is the biggest riser this week as he is up 5.2 spots as drafters look to find value in the receiver position and hope that Rice's legal issues are lesser than first expected. Even in the late rounds, we are seeing the likes of Rashod Bateman and Jermaine Burton getting a bump up in ADP as the field looks to play catchup at the position, looking for any type of player that might have some youth and upside associated with their name. Elijah Mitchell is the lone non-WR player in the risers section this week, as he makes for a nice handcuff to superstar Christian McCaffrey.
The thirst for wide receivers on Underdog will only increase the further we get into June and July. Later in camps and preseason, we might see some depth chart players and rookies that get a bump on the depth chart. We will then see their prices adjust. It is a hard time currently to build out best ball rosters that are super wide receiver heavy and to know what running backs later in drafts will be higher on teams' depth charts.
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Underdog Best Ball Fallers
Top 3 Fallers - Early Rounds
- C.J. Stroud QB HOU -2.3 ADP
- Josh Allen QB BUF -1.9 ADP
- Patrick Mahomes QB KC -1.9 ADP
Top 3 Fallers - Mid Rounds
- Austin Ekeler RB WAS -3.7
- Ezekiel Elliott RB DAL -3.1
- T.J. Hockenson TE MIN -3.1
Top 3 Fallers - Late Rounds
- Baker Mayfield QB TB-6.6
- Cade Otton TE TB -4.6
- Will Levis QB TEN -4.6
The Faller Takeaways: The quarterback position continues to adjust in ADP pricing as it is the one position that might be the most predictable, and with it being a onesie type of position, you can build in a way that you don't have to force the position like you might at running back and wide receiver. We see some really big names on this weeks list at the quarterback position in C.J. Stroud, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes II, and in the later rounds a couple of more starters in Baker Mayfield and Will Levis. These are all valuable players in best ball builds, but often, when drafting a quarterback, you want to have a pass catcher to stack him with. Some of the other fallers this week are veteran running backs Austin Ekeler and Ezekiel Elliott, who come with some concerns when drafting in early June. Cade Otton is a surprise to me as a faller this week as I see him with little competition behind him at the tight end position in Tampa Bay. T.J. Hockenson remains on the list this week and continues to battle back from a serious injury and likely will continue to drop as his recovery will take more time than expected.
Weekly News and Notes
- RB Rhamondre Stevenson NE - Closing in on a contract extension
- WR Chase Claypool BUF - Positive news as he has been shining at OTAs.
- TE Darren Waller NYG - Official retires and opens the door for Theo Johnson and Daniel Bellinger.
- RB Evan Hull IND - His 2023 injury included a torn MCL.
- QB Jacoby Brissett NE - Earns praise of offensive coordinator.
- RB Ty Chandler MIN - Looking good at minicamp.
- RB Kyren Williams LAR - Gets back on the practice field.
- WR Courtland Sutton DEN - To attend minicamp.
- WR Mecole Hardman Jr KC - Re-signs with the Chiefs.
Best Ball Industry News
Underdog Fantasy - Best Ball Mania V is alive and well, sitting at a 22% (18% last week) fill rate - 148,200/672,672, with 27,000 new entries this past week. It is a $25 entry tournament with a 1st place prize of $1,500,000. Underdog is also currently offering a variety of other contests ranging from $5-$1000 entry fees, such as The Puppy Superflex, The Sprint, The Eliminator, Weekly Winners, The Marathon, The Big Dog, and The Mastiff.
Drafters - Drafters released a $2.5 Million Best Ball tournament with a $15 entry fee and a top prize of $500,000. It is currently 15,000/186,672 full, which is up 2,000 entries this week. They also have a $2 entry Mini that is 30,000/56,004 full, which is up 7,500 entries and has a top prize of $20,000.
DraftKings - DraftKings released their big $20 entry Best Ball tournament for 2024. It has a $1.5 million to 1st place price, but you must beat out 882,144 entries to win the prize. This contest is playoff-style, with the Top 2 out of 12 advancing out of Round 1 (Week 1 through Week 14). After that, the top team in Week 15 and Week 16 will make it into the Week 17 Finals. This contest currently sits at 121,200/882,144 full, which is up 24,000 entries. DraftKings also released a slew of other tournaments at various price ranges of $3-$10,000 in entry fees.
Other sites that have Best Ball offerings - FFPC, Yahoo, FanDuel, and BestBall10s.
Author Bio
I have been playing Best Ball for five-plus years now and have learned valuable lessons along the way. I want to share that knowledge with our customers at Footballguys.com. My name is James Brimacombe, and my username on Underdog Fantasy and around the various Best Ball and DFS sites is "Eaglezzz". I will be honest with you each week as I try to help guide you on your own personal Best Ball journey in 2023. I have made mistakes over the years but have also done a few things correctly. I will always give you my knowledge from both angles. You can always follow me on Twitter as I share my Best Ball thoughts there daily and am always happy to answer questions via replies or DMs. You can follow along here @JamesBrimacombe.
Be sure to check out Underdog Fantasy. You can join their Best Ball Mania V contest here. Being a Footballguys subscriber, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100 if you're a first-time depositor. Have fun, and see you in the lobby!
