Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason, I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania V tournament, excitement has been growing each day ever since. Each week, I want to break down what has changed from the previous week regarding NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks, we are looking at NFL players, specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week, I will look at the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com to examine the top 3 risers and the top 3 fallers at ADP in each of the early, mid, and late rounds. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news we have coming in that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
Let's look at the last two weeks worth of data (05/21-6/04) and find the top 3 Risers and Fallers in the following:
- Early Rounds (1-5)
- Mid Rounds (6-12)
- Late Rounds (13-20)
Underdog Best Ball Risers
Top 3 Risers - Early Rounds
- Christian Kirk WR JAX +3.6 ADP
- Tank Dell WR HOU +3.4 ADP
- Jaylen Waddle WR MIA +3.3 ADP
Top 3 Risers - Mid Rounds
- Jameson Williams WR DET +7.8
- Tyler Lockett WR SEA +6.1
- Rashid Shaheed WR NO +6.0
Top 3 Risers - Late Rounds
- D'Onta Foreman RB CLE +7.0
- Antonio Gibson RB NE +5.2
- Jalen Tolbert WR DAL +4.3
The Risers Takeaways: The wide receiver position remains the most important and sought-after position on Underdog Fantasy, as we see seven out of the nine names on the risers list this week come from that position. In the early rounds, we see Christian Kirk as the number one riser, as he is up 3.6 ADP spots. This might not seem too significant of a rise, but the early rounds often stay pretty stagnant at this time of year. Jameson Williams is the biggest riser in the mid rounds - up 7.8 spots - as he has had some positive coach speak in the media, helping his rise. In the late rounds, we see two running backs in D'Onta Foreman and Antonio Gibson with the biggest rises - up 7.0 and 5.2 ADP spots, respectively. The late-round running backs thin out rather quickly this year, so finding players at the position that will have a role in an offense is key.
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Underdog Best Ball Fallers
Top 3 Fallers - Early Rounds
- C.J. Stroud QB HOU -4.2
- Josh Jacobs RB LV -3.7
- Kyren Williams RB LAR -3.4
Top 3 Fallers - Mid Rounds
- T.J. Hockenson TE MIN -6.4
- Caleb Williams QB CHI -5.9
- Justin Herbert QB LAC -4.8
Top 3 Fallers - Late Rounds
- J.J. McCarthy QB MIN -10.3
- Aaron Rodgers QB NYJ -7.0
- Matthew Stafford QB LAR -5.4
The Faller Takeaways: This is the time of year that quarterbacks start to adjust and level out as other positions are focused more on and pushed up the board. We see six out of nine of the fallers being at the quarterback position with C.J. Stroud, Caleb Williams, Justin Herbert, J.J. McCarthy, Aaron Rodgers, and Matthew Stafford. These are all impressive players and ones that you might be surprised are falling at ADP. Maybe the lesson here is to start pushing your draft limits with the quarterback position and wait it out a little longer, as you might get a falling ADP value at the quarterback position. The other fallers on the list are T.J. Hockenson, who is still working back from injury and has yet to have much positive news on his rehab, and a pair of running backs in Josh Jacobs and Kyren Williams, who both have had some news on potential workload shares that might be scaring people off some and pushing them down the ADP board.
Weekly News and Notes
- TE Logan Thomas - In line to sign with the 49ers.
- TE Darren Waller - Likely announcing retirement soon.
- WR Justin Jefferson - Signs a 4-year, $140M extension.
- RB Gary Brightwell - Goes on IR.
- QB Jacoby Brissett - Dominating first-team reps.
- WR Darius Slayton - Gets incentives added to contract.
- RB Audric Estime - Undergoes knee scope.
- WR Jauan Jennings - Inks two-year deal.
- WR Nico Collins - Signs a 3-year, $72M extension.
- QB Daniel Jones - Expects to be ready by Week 1.
Best Ball Industry News
Underdog Fantasy - Best Ball Mania V is alive and well, sitting at an 18% fill rate - 121,200/672,672. It is a $25 entry tournament with a 1st place prize of $1,500,000. Underdog is also currently offering a variety of other contests ranging from $5-$1000 entry fees, such as The Puppy Superflex, The Sprint, The Eliminator, Weekly Winners, The Marathon, The Big Dog, and The Mastiff.
Drafters - Drafters released a $2.5 Million Best Ball tournament with a $15 entry fee and a top prize of $500,000. It is currently 13,000/186,672 full. They also have a $2 entry Mini that is 22,550/56,004 full and has a top prize of $20,000.
DraftKings - DraftKings released their big $20 entry Best Ball tournament for 2024. It has a $1.5 million to 1st place price, but you must beat out 882,144 entries to win the prize. This contest is playoff-style, with the Top 2 out of 12 advancing out of Round 1 (Week 1 through Week 14). After that, the top team in Week 15 and Week 16 will make it into the Week 17 Finals. This contest currently sits at 97,200/882,144 full. DraftKings also released a slew of other tournaments at various price ranges of $3-$10,000 in entry fees.
Other sites that have Best Ball offerings - FFPC, Yahoo, FanDuel, and BestBall10s.
Author Bio
I have been playing Best Ball for five-plus years now and have learned valuable lessons along the way. I want to share that knowledge with our customers at Footballguys.com. My name is James Brimacombe, and my username on Underdog Fantasy and around the various Best Ball and DFS sites is "Eaglezzz". I will be honest with you each week as I try to help guide you on your own personal Best Ball journey in 2023. I have made mistakes over the years but have also done a few things correctly. I will always give you my knowledge from both angles. You can always follow me on Twitter as I share my Best Ball thoughts there daily and am always happy to answer questions via replies or DMs. You can follow along here @JamesBrimacombe.
Be sure to check out Underdog Fantasy. You can join their Best Ball Mania V contest here. Being a Footballguys subscriber, you'll get a 100% deposit match up to $100 if you're a first-time depositor. Have fun, and see you in the lobby!
