Trey McBride is entering his third NFL season and is ranked as our consensus TE3 in PPR formats. He is highly anticipated following a breakout 2023 campaign. He concluded with 81 receptions for 825 yards and three touchdowns. Franchise quarterback Kyler Murray returned from an ACL injury in Week 10, and the duo connected for 53 receptions for 538 yards and two touchdowns. In eight games, McBride accumulated with Murray:
- 65% receptions
- 65% yards
- 67% touchdowns
He averaged 8.3 targets per game while averaging 10.2 yards per reception. It should be noted WR Marquise Brown had three targets over the last five games of the season, not playing the final three games. McBride averaged 8.2 targets during this span. Additionally, rookie WR Michael Wilson averaged 4.8 targets, and WR Rondale Moore averaged 3.4 targets.
Not only did McBride accumulate targets, but he also finished this span among tight ends with the highest target share, fourth-most yards per route run, and fourth in red zone targets. He finished the season with only two red zone touchdowns.
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Out with the old, in with the new
The Arizona Cardinals did not re-sign WR Marquise Brown and traded WR Rondale Moore during the offseason. Marvin Harrison Jr. was selected by Arizona in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft with the fourth overall pick. Additionally, WR Greg Dortch signed a one-year, exclusive-rights tender, and Zay Jones signed a one-year deal worth up to $4.25 million.
You want your tight end to be a top target on the team, especially if you are investing high draft capital in the asset. McBride is ranked as our consensus 34th overall asset for the 2024 draft rankings. It does appear he will remain a top target for Murray, sharing the distribution with rookie Harrison. Second-year Wilson and fan-favorite Dortch will likely have a role, too. Jones will help stretch the field. On no account of significant threats to take away the potential from McBride's ascension.
Trey McBride Stats and Projections
Past Stats
| Season | Games | Receptions | Yards | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 9 | 29 | 265 | 1 |
| 2023 | 17 | 81 | 825 | 3 |
2024 Projections
| Projector | Games | Receptions | Yards | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | 16.3 | 89.7 | 893 | 4.8 |
| Justin Freeman | 16.0 | 84.6 | 841 | 4.4 |
| Bob Henry | 16.0 | 87.0 | 850 | 4.0 |
| Maurile Tremblay | 17.0 | 85.9 | 865 | 4.9 |
| Jason Wood | 16.0 | 87.0 | 880 | 6.0 |
Trey McBride 2024 Outlook
It does appear McBride will continue to build off his sophomore breakout campaign. Murray will be the starting quarterback for the entire season, and the existing rapport will bode well for the duo. The average stat line from the projections would be 94.4 receptions, 937.5 yards, and 4.7 touchdowns. A total of 216.4 points (PPR). The production would have concluded for:
- 2023: TE5
- 2022: TE3
- 2021: TE3
- 2020: TE3
- 2019: TE4
He is likely being drafted as TE3 with optimism to reach the overall TE1 season-end finish. It appears a high floor exists according to the last five seasons. Head coach Jonathan Gannon stated, “Sky's the limit” regarding McBride and the 2024 season.
If we extrapolate McBride and Murray's eight-game sample size (2023) mentioned earlier, he would have finished with 119.3 receptions for 1,210.5 yards and 4.5 touchdowns. This does not guarantee a similar stat line in 2024 but rather provides the possibility in the range of outcomes. Do not let a highly touted wide receiver prospect drafted fourth overall let you fade McBride for playing alongside Harrison Jr. Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp coexist, just like other duos in Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, and Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The abnormality of an athletic tight end co-existing with a talented wide receiver has become prominent in today's NFL.
McBride should be a lock to be a top-two target for Arizona in 2024 and another 100+ target season.
Final Thoughts
I would be remiss if I did not acknowledge the potential risk of investing in a top selection in McBride. He is currently being drafted at 44th overall, the middle-to-end of the fourth round. If you are risk averse, there will likely be safer options to select: Rachaad White (RB14), Joe Mixon (RB15), or Zay Flowers (WR24), to name a few. There is an existing notion regarding the relative ease of streaming the tight-end position.
Tight-end premium (TEP) or not, I am investing in McBride. A start-and-forget type asset with the potential to finish statistically as a low-end WR1, high-end WR2. He averaged 6.6 receptions per game with Murray, accumulating 67.3 yards per game. This would total 13.3 points per game. Without adding touchdown points, this stat line would have extrapolated to the 43rd overall finish in 2023, including quarterbacks.
The stars may need to align for the overall TE1 finish and a finish relative to a high-end WR2. Recent history supports the potential within this range of outcomes. It helps when there is a talented quarterback, coaching staff scheming to the player's talents, and the target-share available to make the stars align.
