Thanksgiving is all about family, food, and of course, football! Whether you're sneaking away from the table to check your lineups or watching the games surrounded by loved ones, this holiday slate is a unique opportunity to combine two of the best parts of the season. In this guide, we’ll break down everything you need to dominate your DFS contests—both Showdown and Classic formats. From player recommendations to game strategies, this article has you covered so you can enjoy the action on the field without missing a beat. Let’s turn turkey day into payday!
Overall Strategy- Written by Devin Knotts
For a three game slate, these tend to be some of the most unpredictable slates of the season. The reason is that there are a massive number of entries with upwards of 600,000 entries in the largest contest. With that many entries in a contest, you're going to need to be almost perfect to win the GPP. One strategy that has worked over the last several seasons is to try to avoid game stacking where possible. Far too often, on these short slates, we will see two things. 1) People completely stacking the three games maximizing the number of players in a single game, and 2) People stacking the first game more than the other two games simply because they want to see themselves get out to an early lead and have a green number next to "currently winning". The first strategy is a particularly bad one. By maximizing a game stack meaning play 7 or 8 players from the same lineup, you're greatly decreasing your upside. While you may get every touchdown in that game, every touchdown that is scored is a touchdown that is not scored by the other 6 or 7 players on your roster. The other issue is that uniqueness becomes a factor. With 500k entries in a contest, there are going to be many people who end up doing this for each of the games, therefore limiting your upside completely as even if a game has the right script fo rit to work with 11 touchdowns scored or some crazy number, you'll still be tied with a lot of your new friends who had the same idea as you and you'll share the prize pool with them.
If you're only building one or a couple of lineups, try to game plan how you could see the games playing out. Once you've built out the game scripts, then try to see how that will impact the various players in those games. For example, if you believe that Miami will struggle in the cold, that could lead to shorter passing and more of a run-heavy approach for the Dolphins. If you believe that the Giants passing offense will improve under Drew Lock, then taking a shootout potential game between Lock and Rush could make sense with the lowest scoring game on the slate. There's almost always a game that the public is just wrong on
Should you play cash games? This is a question that gets asked quite a bit, and the answer most of the time is no unless you're looking for entertainment and want more of a one vs. one matchup to be able to track throughout the day. This week, more than year's past does not have one cash game optimal build, so you could do it as there are a variety of different choice options particularly at quarterback between going cheap with a Drew Lock/Cooper Rush, or spending up to a Jared Goff with Caleb Williams in the middle. At running back, most people are going to have both Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Rico Dowdle while at wide receiver a large number taking Nabers, Lamb, and a cheap wide receiver to be able to fit in Jonnu Smith and a player like Josh Jacobs at $7k.
Early Game: Chicago at Detroit (Lee)
Through 12 weeks of football, no NFC team boasts a better record than the 10-1 Detroit Lions. Vegas oddsmakers predict this NFC North clash to be a one-sided affair, with the Lions heavily favored over the 4-7 Chicago Bears. The league's 2024 number-one draft pick, Caleb Williams, has delivered moments of brilliance this season, including a standout 340-yard performance last Sunday in a thrilling game against the Vikings. However, Williams faces a tough challenge against a dominant Lions squad. Read on for a deeper dive into the game and the key DFS options to consider.
Injury Considerations: The Detroit Lions have placed wide receiver Khalif Raymond on injured reserve due to a foot injury sustained during their recent game against the Indianapolis Colts. Prior to his injury, Raymond was averaging approximately 20 snaps per game. In his absence, it's anticipated that Tim Patrick and Allen Robinson II will see increased playing time. Patrick has been more involved in the offense, absorbing 4-5 times the number of snaps when compared to Robinson. Given this higher usage, Patrick presents a more appealing option for DFS formats, especially considering his marginally higher cost relative to Robinson.
Gamescript & Analysis: Since their Week 7 bye, the Chicago Bears have suffered five consecutive losses, with three of those defeats decided by a field goal or less. Despite these close contests, they enter this game as 10-point underdogs to the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. This significant line likely reflects the Lions' recent dominance, having outscored their opponents 76-12 over the past two weeks. I anticipate a continuation of this trend, with Detroit excelling on both sides of the ball in front of a national audience. PREDICTION: Detroit 33, Chicago 13.
GPP Plays: Among the Bears' options, Rome Odunze stands out as a compelling choice. Despite his consistent involvement in Chicago's offense, he's the most affordable Bears receiver and is due for positive scoring regression, having not reached the end zone since late September. Given the anticipated game script, D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen are also viable considerations; however, their recent success has elevated both their popularity and cost, which I try to avoid in DFS contests.
On the Detroit side, the entire offense is viable across all DFS formats. This includes Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta, both of whom have underperformed relative to their talent this season. A noteworthy low-owned option is Tim Patrick, who is expected to see increased opportunities following Khalif Raymond's placement on injured reserve. Patrick is among my top tournament plays on this slate due to his relative obscurity, affordable price, and expanded role within a high-scoring offense.
Showdown Captain Picks: For your Captain slot, you can confidently eliminate any of the Bears as options due to their lack of upside compared to the Lions' top-scoring offense. This narrows your choices to three strong candidates for Showdown contests: 1) Jahmyr Gibbs, 2) Amon-Ra St. Brown, and 3) Jared Goff.
Jahmyr Gibbs earns the edge over his backfield partner, David Montgomery, primarily because Montgomery injured his shoulder last Sunday and has been limited in practice leading up to this game. It’s plausible that the usual 50/50 workload split tilts more heavily in Gibbs’ favor, especially in a gamescript that should prioritize the run for Detroit. The Bears' run-funnel defense further boosts Gibbs’ fantasy potential, making him a strong Captain pick.
If Gibbs doesn’t appeal to you, don’t let the Bears' defensive rankings against the pass (see chart above) deter you from targeting the Lions’ aerial attack. The Bears haven’t faced an elite quarterback this season—and Jared Goff may not quite be ‘elite’—he has the tools to deliver high-end fantasy production. Chief among them is Amon-Ra St. Brown, who had an impressive streak of eight consecutive games with a touchdown before being held scoreless last Sunday against the Colts. St. Brown remains a top-tier option in this matchup, with a high ceiling for fantasy success.
Kickers and Defense: The Detroit Lions' defense presents a compelling option against rookie quarterback Caleb Williams, who may be tasked with over 40 pass attempts in this matchup. Rookie quarterbacks often experience growing pains, leading to potential turnovers and defensive scoring opportunities.
Kicker Jake Bates offers a cost-effective choice for Showdown contests. If the game unfolds as Vegas odds suggest, Bates could see increased action in the second half. Notably, he has maintained a perfect field goal record this season, including 5-for-5 on attempts beyond 50 yards. In contrast, it's advisable to fade the Bears' kicker, Cairo Santos, as his opportunities may diminish if Chicago falls behind late in the game.
Afternoon Game: NY Giants at Dallas (Lee)
The mid-afternoon Thanksgiving game arrives just as the tryptophan from your turkey dinner begins to take effect. With Dak Prescott sidelined for the season and Daniel Jones no longer with the team, this matchup features Cooper Rush facing off against either Tommy DeVito or Drew Lock—neither of whom inspire much confidence for an exhilarating game. Expect a heavy emphasis on the ground game, as both teams have struggled to defend the run this season. The likely outcome is a low-scoring, swiftly concluded contest—perfect for a post-meal nap.
Injury Considerations: As of this writing, the primary injury concern among skill position players is Jake Ferguson, who is likely to miss his second consecutive game due to the league's concussion protocol. In his absence, rookie Luke Schoonmaker is expected to start again; notably, Schoonmaker scored his first NFL touchdown last week while filling in for Ferguson.
Additionally, the Cowboys' injury situation is concerning, with eight players not participating in Tuesday's practice. If Wednesday's report reflects similar absences, Dallas may field a makeshift defense on Sunday, where they have yet to secure a win this season. Given the Giants' coaching staff's urgency to rebound from the Daniel Jones situation and Drew Lock's potential to solidify his role as QB1 for the remainder of 2024, there's a plausible scenario where the Giants could upset the Cowboys in Dallas.
Gamescript & Analysis: I am not confident in predicting the outcome of this matchup, but I do believe we’ll see a heavy dose of Tyrone Tracy Jr.. and Rico Dowdle on Thursday. Both teams rank in the bottom five in rush defense and are starting backup quarterbacks who have historically struggled when asked to lead an offense. Adding to the lackluster offensive outlook, these teams rank 31st and 32nd in red zone efficiency. This could lead to a game filled with field goals and minimal fantasy impact, particularly on the Classic (3-game) DFS slate.
GPP Plays: For tournaments, CeeDee Lamb and Malik Nabers should be on your radar as the centerpieces of their respective offenses. In full PPR scoring formats like DraftKings, these receivers are worth considering simply because they have the potential to catch 10+ passes. However, their upside may be capped by the talent limitations of Cooper Rush and Drew Lock under center.
Beyond Lamb and Nabers, there are several intriguing flyer options that could differentiate your lineup: Brandin Cooks, Luke Schoonmaker, and Brevyn Spann-Ford. Cooks, who is attempting to return from injured reserve, could help take some defensive focus away from Lamb. Schoonmaker’s case was outlined earlier in the injury discussion, but Spann-Ford stands out as an under-the-radar option. Despite similar involvement to Schoonmaker in recent weeks, Spann-Ford will likely go overlooked, making him a strong value play in Showdown contests where salary flexibility is key.
For the Giants, options are more limited. Theo Johnson and Wan'Dale Robinson are the most viable plays, as both are short average depth of target (ADoT) receivers who could benefit from quick passes to counteract pressure from Micah Parsons and the Cowboys’ pass rush. When the Giants are forced away from the run on passing downs, these two could see increased opportunities.
Showdown Captain Picks: Given the anticipated run-heavy game script, I recommend only two primary Captain options for this game: Rico Dowdle and Tyrone Tracy Jr... Dowdle gets the slight edge, as the Giants have allowed five consecutive 100+ yard rushing performances. That said, Tracy remains a strong Captain option, especially if the Cowboys’ defense is missing as many players as Tuesday’s injury report suggests.
For a more unconventional and debatable Captain pick, consider Brandon Aubrey, the Dallas kicker. Arguably the best kicker in the NFL, Aubrey has connected on 10 of 11 attempts from beyond 50 yards, including several from 60+. There’s a plausible scenario where the Cowboys’ offense moves the ball but stalls in Giants’ territory, leading to multiple field goal attempts. If Aubrey hits a pair of 50-yarders and adds a few shorter kicks, he could easily surpass 15 fantasy points on his $5.6K salary, freeing up budget for top-tier players across both teams. While risky, this approach is worth considering, given the circumstances.
Kickers and Defense: Brandon Aubrey is a strong choice for kicker-eligible contests, given his consistent performance this season. Greg Joseph, handling kicking duties for the Giants, also warrants consideration due to the team's struggles in the red zone. In a potentially low-scoring game, both kickers could feature in winning Showdown lineups.
Defensively, both teams are als0 viable options. Drew Lock has a career touchdown-to-interception ratio of 28:23, while Cooper Rush stands at 12:7. If either team is compelled to pass more frequently, the opposing defense could capitalize on turnover opportunities.
Late Game: Miami at Green Bay (Lee)
The highlight of Thanksgiving Day is set for the evening, as the Miami Dolphins (5-6) visit the Green Bay Packers (8-3) at Lambeau Field. The Dolphins' record may be deceptive, considering that four of their losses occurred in games where quarterback Tua Tagovailoa either didn't play or couldn't finish. Conversely, the Packers are vying for playoff positioning in the competitive NFC North, trailing both the Lions and Vikings. Oddsmakers anticipate a tight matchup, with a slight advantage to Green Bay as the home team.
Injury Considerations: The Green Bay Packers have announced that wide receiver Romeo Doubs will miss Thursday night's game against the Miami Dolphins due to the league's concussion protocol. Doubs' absence opens up opportunities for other receivers to step up, potentially offering value in fantasy lineups. Additionally, star cornerback Jaire Alexander remains sidelined with a knee injury. However, the Packers' secondary has held strong in his absence, not allowing any opposing receiver to surpass 60 yards since he was injured.
Gamescript & Analysis: The offensive strategies of the Green Bay Packers and the Miami Dolphins are notably contrasting. The Packers emphasize the run, ranking 30th in pass rate over expectation, while the Dolphins, with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback, favor a pass-heavy approach. This dynamic seems to benefit the Packers, as the Dolphins' defense has been particularly effective against quarterbacks and wide receivers, allowing the fewest fantasy points to these positions. Conversely, the Dolphins' passing game may face challenges against a Packers' secondary that has permitted only one 300-yard passer this season. Given these factors, the game's outcome appears unpredictable, likely hinging on a pivotal play such as a defensive lapse, a turnover, or an unforeseen event.
GPP Plays: On the Packers’ side, the absence of Romeo Doubs creates an opportunity for players like Bo Melton or Malik Heath to gain relevance in Showdown formats. Of the two, Melton is the better option based on recent usage. Priced at only $1.2K, he provides significant salary relief for the rest of your lineup.
The Packers’ starting wide receivers—Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, and Dontayvion Wicks—are among the most unpredictable groups on this slate. All three play roughly 60% of the team’s snaps, and Jordan Love distributes targets fairly evenly across them. While Reed is my favorite option, this preference is based more on his talent and potential rather than concrete data. Among Packers’ pass-catchers, however, Tucker Kraft stands out as the best DFS play. Kraft continues to see heavy usage and leads the team in red zone targets, making him a high-upside option for Showdown contests.
For the Dolphins, Jonnu Smith has quietly emerged as a high-end tight end since their Week 6 bye. Over that span, Smith has delivered three 22+ DK point performances and clearly has the trust of Tua Tagovailoa. At just $6.4K in Showdown contests, Smith is a must-play in every lineup. Beyond Smith, there’s little to like aside from Jaylen Waddle, who finally broke out with a big performance last week against the Colts. The Dolphins’ running backs, meanwhile, are difficult to recommend due to their committee approach under Mike McDaniel and a tough matchup against the Packers’ stingy defensive front, which limits fantasy upside.
Showdown Captain Picks: Given the Packers' commitment to the run, Josh Jacobs stands out as a prime Captain choice for Showdown contests. Over the past month, Jacobs has averaged 22.5 touches per game, recording multiple touchdowns in two of those matchups. While the Dolphins' rush defense appears to have improved recently, this uptick may be attributed to facing less formidable running backs rather than a significant enhancement in their defensive play.
Additionally, Tyreek Hill remains a compelling option, especially when perceived unfavorable matchups lead to lower ownership. Historically, Hill has demonstrated that he's matchup-proof, offering unparalleled upside among receivers. Since Week 1, he hasn't surpassed 20 DraftKings points, suggesting he could be due for a breakout, multi-touchdown performance. Capitalizing on Hill at reduced ownership could provide a significant edge in your lineup.
Kickers and Defense: The weather in Green Bay is expected to be in the high 20s on Thursday night, which could impact decisions around longer field goal attempts. Jason Sanders and Brandon McManus are both serviceable but unspectacular NFL kickers. If you need to choose one, go with Sanders, who has the stronger leg for those longer-distance kicks.
Regarding team defenses, the Packers and Dolphins boast above-average units, but neither is particularly appealing in this matchup. Both offensive lines do a good job of limiting pressure and sacks, and the quarterbacks tend to avoid turnovers. As a result, there’s limited upside for either defense in this contest.
DraftKings GPP Chart (Knotts)
