NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
Game Scripting & Roster Construction
Vegas is projecting a 23-18 road victory in favor of the Cowboys, despite their recent disappointing home losses to New Orleans and Baltimore. The Giants have looked average so far this season, but they managed to salvage a road win last week in Cleveland. From a talent standpoint, the Cowboys are stacked, while the Giants are fielding only one high-end player at a skill position—Malik Nabers. However, Showdown contests are often decided by unexpected touchdowns, making players like Wan'Dale Robinson relevant for roster construction.
In my lineups, I’m banking on the Cowboys to bounce back, and I’ll likely favor CeeDee Lamb, who publicly apologized for his recent performance after Sunday’s loss to the Ravens. On the Giants’ side, Malik Nabers is emerging as the top wide receiver from this year’s draft and should be a fixture in every lineup you build. The key decision revolves around Devin Singletary, who is coming off a 20-touch game where he surpassed 100 total yards and found the end zone. While Dallas has struggled to defend the run—allowing over 330 rushing yards in their last two games—there’s reason to believe they’ll adjust by adding a safety to the box to address this issue, which could impact Singletary’s production.
Injury Roundup
Dallas appears set to enter this contest with a weakened secondary, as both cornerback Caelen Carson and safety Markquese Bell were listed as doubtful on Wednesday’s injury report. This will likely force the Cowboys to adjust their defensive schemes, and it could prompt Brian Daboll to rely on Daniel Jones more heavily than initially expected.
The Giants are dealing with similar defensive issues, as cornerbacks Dru Phillips and Adoree' Jackson have already been ruled out for Thursday. These injuries further position Dak Prescott and the Cowboys' passing attack for a potentially big game.
Captain Considerations
Tipandpick's Conviction Plays
Dallas Showdown Players
Quarterback
Dak Prescott (CPT or FLEX)
Dak lit up the fantasy scoreboards last weekend, throwing for 379 yards on 51 attempts during a fourth-quarter comeback against the Ravens. While we shouldn’t expect another 50-attempt game from Prescott, he has multi-touchdown upside against a Giants defense that has already allowed multiple passing touchdowns to lesser quarterbacks this season. Both Sam Darnold and Deshaun Watson managed two touchdown passes against New York, which bodes well for Dak in this matchup.
Running Backs
Rico Dowdle (FLEX)
Ezekiel Elliott (FLEX)
Dallas has a full-blown running back committee, and predicting who will score more fantasy points between Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott on Thursday night is anyone’s guess. Through the Cowboys' first two games, they were nearly even in snaps and touches, but Dowdle edged ahead in last week's matchup against the Ravens. While this could suggest that Dowdle is earning more trust from the coaching staff, it’s just as likely that last week’s pass-heavy game script worked in his favor over Elliott. If I had to choose, I’d lean toward Elliott, as I believe Dallas has more confidence in him for high-leverage situations, particularly in the red zone.
Wide Receivers
CeeDee Lamb (CPT or FLEX)
Brandin Cooks (FLEX)
Jalen Tolbert (FLEX)
CeeDee Lamb is the centerpiece of the Dallas offense, despite his subpar numbers so far this season. No other player on the team offers the upside that Lamb does, and his recent history against the Giants is stellar. In his last matchup with New York, Lamb tallied 11 receptions, 165 all-purpose yards, and two touchdowns.
After CeeDee, there’s a significant drop-off to Brandin Cooks and Jalen Tolbert. Tolbert has outperformed Cooks so far this season, but Cooks arguably remains the more talented player, even at this stage of his career. For Showdown purposes, both are viable as secondary receivers, but Cooks is the better play due to his likely lower ownership stemming from his higher salary and recent underperformance.
Tight Ends
Jake Ferguson (FLEX)
After rebounding from a scary Week 2 injury, Jake Ferguson emerged as Dak Prescott's favorite receiver in last week's comeback against the Ravens. Ferguson saw 11 targets and led the team with 95 receiving yards. He now appears to be the #2 option in the Dallas offense in 2024, making him a tough player to fade heading into Thursday Night’s Showdown.
Under the Radar
KaVontae Turpin (FLEX)
KaVonte Turpin is a high-risk, high-reward option I’d consider for DraftKings' largest Showdown contests on Thursday night. While Turpin will likely only see 15-20 snaps, he serves as Dallas' primary punt and kick returner and has seen some modest action as a receiver recently. Don’t go overboard with your exposure, but pairing Turpin with the Dallas defense offers deep differentiation and could yield 12 points if he returns a kick or punt for a touchdown.
NY Giants Showdown Players
Quarterback
Daniel Jones (FLEX)
Daniel Jones will likely be the highest-rostered Giant on Thursday night by virtue of his position and implied oportunity, alone. If his popularity reaches that level, fading him in your lineup could be the shark move. Over his last nine starts, Jones has thrown just 6 touchdowns against 8 interceptions, highlighting his struggles in recent years. As the second most expensive player on his team, Jones should be approached with caution.
Running Backs
Devin Singletary (FLEX)
Coming off a respectable 900-yard rushing season with the Texans, Devin Singletary appears to have secured the lead role in the Giants’ backfield through the first three games of the 2024 season. While he hasn’t put up explosive numbers, Singletary has consistently seen 16+ touches per game, which should provide ample opportunity for solid fantasy production against the Cowboys’ porous 2024 run defense. As mentioned earlier in the article, the only hesitation in rostering Singletary is if Dallas adjusts their defensive front to address their glaring weakness against the run.
Wide Receivers
Malik Nabers (CPT or FLEX)
Darius Slayton (FLEX)
Wan'Dale Robinson (FLEX)
Footballguys' own talent scout, Matt Waldman, recently stated that Malik Nabers looks like the best wide receiver in the 2024 draft class. It’s hard to argue against that, as Nabers has put up massive numbers over the past few weeks, even with opposing defenses keying in on him. Nabers remains a must-play in this format until further notice.
Meanwhile, Darius Slayton, who is questionable with a thumb injury, has been underwhelming in 2024. With just 7 catches for 66 yards and no touchdowns across three games, Slayton remains the Giants’ primary deep threat, but he’s a true boom-or-bust option. In contrast, Wan'Dale Robinson is the polar opposite—reliable for 6+ catches from the slot each week but rarely surpassing 50 receiving yards. His rising price, paired with limited upside, makes him a tough sell for tournament play.
Tight End
Theo Johnson (FLEX)
Theo Johnson, a fourth-round rookie out of Penn State, has been getting significant playing time ahead of Daniel Bellinger. Despite logging over 150 offensive snaps, Johnson has only seen 7 targets from Daniel Jones so far this season. However, at 6'6" with strong touchdown potential and a bargain price, he becomes a viable option in tournament formats.
Kickers and Defenses
With defensive injuries plaguing both teams and neither showing recent defensive strength, it's hard to recommend either defense in this matchup. If you must choose one, I’d lean toward Dallas. They have the talent to justify consideration, and Daniel Jones has a history of turnovers, which could lead to a potential defensive score for the Cowboys.
At a similar price point, I like Brandon Aubrey as a kicker option. He’s 10-for-10 on field goals this season, including five from 50+ yards, which DraftKings values at 5 points each. Given that Aubrey has been successful from as far as 65 yards, there’s potential for him to rack up several of those 5-point opportunities. On the Giants’ side, Greg Joseph is filling in for the injured Graham Gano after spending several seasons with the Vikings. While anything can happen, I’m comfortable passing on Joseph, especially considering his career 57% success rate on kicks beyond 50 yards.
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