DraftKings Thursday Showdown: Week 3

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Scripting & Roster Construction

Oddsmakers are predicting a low-scoring game on Thursday, with the Jets expected to edge out the Patriots 22-16. Given this forecast, a lineup composition favoring the Jets with a 4-2 Jets-to-Pats ratio seems logical. Although I can envision scenarios for a 5-1 Jets stack or an even 3-3 split between the teams, the limited scoring potential on the New England side hardly justifies having more than three of their players.

In my lineups, I plan to anchor with Breece Hall and likely pair him with Aaron Rodgers and Garrett Wilson. Given the expected low score, it’s crucial to include players who are likely touchdown scorers—those who can turn the tide in your favor. Additionally, I’m considering adding a kicker or defense to my roster, potentially even two. While I haven’t finalized my lineup builds, I’m leaning toward not using the full salary cap. As discussed in last week’s column, this approach helps avoid duplicated lineups and the consequent split of prize pools, enhancing your chances of crafting the optimal lineup.

Injury Roundup

The final injury report ahead of Thursday night’s game raises concerns for the Patriots' offensive line. Left Tackle Vederian Lowe (knee) and Left Guard Sidy Sow (ankle) have been declared inactive while starting Center David Andrews is questionable with a hip injury. Mike Reiss reports that Andrews is likely to play; however, it’s crucial to verify his status on Thursday evening. If Andrews is sidelined, Rhamondre Stevenson’s high salary makes him a risky play (further details on Stevenson are discussed below).

On the Jets' side, they suffered a significant blow to their pass rush last week when Jermaine Johnson tore his Achilles tendon during the game against the Titans. While Johnson’s absence could mean better protection for Jacoby Brissett, it doesn't necessarily warrant including Brissett in your lineups.

Captain Considerations

1. Breece Hall
2. Garrett Wilson
3. Aaron Rodgers

Tipandpick's Conviction Plays

1. Breece Hall
2. Garrett Wilson
3. Jets Defense
4. Hunter Henry

New England Showdown Players

Quarterback

Jacoby Brissett (Flex...maybe)

With only 270 passing yards and zero touchdowns through the Patriots' first two games, it's hard to justify a $9.0K premium for Jacoby Brissett against a robust Jets defense. Given the limited number of standout players in this matchup, Brissett receives only modest consideration. However, avoid forcibly including him in your lineup, as he's expected to appear in half of the GPP rosters and may disappoint for the third consecutive game.

Running Backs

Rhamondre Stevenson (FLEX)

Rhamondre Stevenson, with over 50 touches in two games, has been pivotal in keeping the Patriots competitive. While he's a must-include for Thursday, anticipate a potential drop in his performance. The Jets are likely to concentrate on stopping him, challenging New England to pass with their subpar receivers and the struggling Brissett. The additional strain from the offensive line injuries weakens the case for Stevenson as a Captain pick.

Wide Receivers

K.J. Osborn (FLEX)
Demario Douglas (FLEX)
Ja'Lynn Polk (FLEX)
Tyquan Thornton (FLEX)

In 2024, New England is utilizing a mixed bag of wide receivers, none of whom possess the fantasy upside necessary to win DFS tournaments. Nonetheless, given this is a Showdown contest with limited player options, their affordability and low ownership make them worth considering for Thursday night. In a predicted low-scoring game, snagging a receiver who scores could be crucial to clinching the top prize. Among the available options, I particularly favor rookie Ja'Lynn Polk, primarily due to his size rather than his stats. While it’s reasonable to overlook this group of receivers, remember that if one of them scores a touchdown, having them on your roster could be crucial for winning your bets. 

Tight Ends

Hunter Henry (FLEX)

Hunter Henry emerges as a viable second-tier option with the potential to score. Boasting the best hands among the Patriots receivers and standing as the most seasoned on the field, Henry had a standout performance last week against the Seahawks, with 8 catches for 109 yards from 12 targets. He stands out as one of the better picks from the Patriots for this contest.

NY Jets Showdown Players

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers (CPT or FLEX)

Aaron Rodgers showed improvement from Week 1 to Week 2, but interpreting his progress requires context. Was his better performance due to facing a top-tier 49ers defense initially and then a weaker Titans defense, or did he simply get more comfortable under center after playing his first full game in nearly two years? It’s likely a combination of both factors, and we can anticipate continued improvement as Rodgers adjusts to game speed. On a night with limited options, he should definitely make your roster and is worth considering for the Captain spot, especially since he'll likely have lower ownership compared to Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson.

Running Backs

Breece Hall (CPT or FLEX)

Breece Hall has been the centerpiece of the Jets’ offense through the first two games and should be a key pick for your Showdown contest on Thursday night. With 30 carries and 12 targets as a receiver, Hall’s ability to make big plays is undeniable, and his fantasy upside is among the highest of any player on this slate. He's a must-start.

Wide Receivers

Garrett Wilson (FLEX)
Allen Lazard (FLEX)
Mike Williams (FLEX)

Garrett Wilson is the clear receiver choice for the Jets this Thursday, but don’t overlook Aaron Rodgers' secondary receivers. Allen Lazard is just one game removed from scoring two touchdowns against the 49ers in Week 1. Additionally, Mike Williams is known for both his big-play capability and his injury history—he has the potential for 50-yard gains on any given play. However, if you opt for two Jets receivers, including Rodgers in your lineup is advisable due to the performance correlation.

Tight End

As for Conklin, he hasn’t scored a touchdown in nearly two years, despite logging over 1,000 snaps in that timeframe. While he could potentially score on Thursday, I recommend exploring other options since salary constraints should not be an issue for this slate.

Kickers and Defenses

Neither offense generates much enthusiasm, especially considering the low 38-point total projected by Vegas for this matchup. Therefore, both defenses and kickers warrant consideration for Showdown contests.

Joey Slye might seem like the less favorable kicker option on paper, given his team is a touchdown underdog. If New England falls behind late in the game, they are unlikely to opt for field goals when down by a touchdown. However, I prefer Slye over Greg Zuerlein. There's a good chance the Patriots will struggle in the red zone, which could lead to more field goal attempts for Slye, while the Jets' offense, which is better at red zone conversions, might limit Zuerlein’s opportunities. Both kickers are viable, but Slye could be the better tournament choice.

Defensively, the Jets are the stronger pick due to their star players on that side of the ball. It’s easy to envision a scenario where Jacoby Brissett throws an interception to someone like Sauce Gardner. Although the Patriots' defense has been competitive and Aaron Rodgers is still finding his form post-injury, the Jets have the advantage. The likely game scenario, with the Patriots in late-game desperation, further tips the scales in favor of the Jets’ defense.

Player Chart

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