The Top 10: Week 3

Photo: USA Today Sports

The Top 10: The Cliff's Notes

• The Saints have the personnel, coordinator, and scheme to be a top fantasy offense with Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Alvin Kamara, and Derek Carr having fantasy value.
• Kyler Murray targeted Marvin Harrison Jr. early and often. The Rams zone defense was way too soft, but credit the Cardinals for making Harrison startable--at least until we see coverage like the Bills used. 
• Read my Friday feature, The Replacements for late-week finds like Jalen Nailor and Alec Pierce. 
• Andrei Iosivas' route running is why he is a good long-term candidate to become a fantasy starter.
• Will Levis is tough and daring, but his erratic decision-making is a huge problem. 
• Treylon Burks could contribute on a team but not with the expectation of him as a primary receiver. He lacks the ingrained techniques that primary receivers have in the league and they are tough to acquire this late in a player's career. 
• Breece Hall showed all the techniques at the catch point that Burks lacked. No wonder he's an early read in the Jets' passing offense. 
• Caleb Williams didn't melt down as a decision-maker despite facing an onslaught of pressure on Sunday night. This year is likely a bust, but he was low-key impressive to an evaluator like myself who is used to seeing rookie QBs fall apart in ways Williams didn't. 
• The Colts' run defense is a great match-up until further notice. 
• Cody Alexander explains the nuances of the ever-evolving chess match between NFL offenses and defenses. Good read. 
• 10 more fantasy-relevant points I learned in Week 2

1. A Year (and an OC) Early on the Saints Offense

I might have been a year -- and an offensive coordinator -- early on the Saints offensive success. I kicked off last year's Gut Check with an examination of New Orleans personnel and concluded this group could become one of the most productive offenses in the league. 

My premise: 

• Rashid Shaheed's emergence, especially as a field stretcher, would force defenses into too many binds.
• Shaheed's versatility allowed the Saints to use more two-tight-end alignments to help the ground game and force opposing defenses off balance. 
• Derek Carr would thrive behind an offensive line Matt Bitonti projected as a top-10 unit, especially as a vertical passer with a play-action component. 

The premise fell apart in Week 1 because left tackle Trevor Penning was not ready for the NFL. The Saints had to give Penning too much help, which hamstrung the offense. Peter Carmichael's scheme also lacked a lot of motion, which added further to its predictability. 

Enter Kyle Shanahan (and Gary Kubiak) pupil, Klint Kubiak, in the offseason. Kubiak gave the Saints a much-needed update to the scheme. What we're seeing is an offense that is performing to the points I projected last year. 

Chris Olave gets the big catch and run over the middle to set up a Kamara TD.

7 plays, 80 yards pic.twitter.com/VTvKMnOpE0

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 15, 2024

Derek to Rashid Shaheed on PA post. Perfect. Only active player with more 40+ yard TDs? Tyreek Hill. #Saints pic.twitter.com/0rOtTJTfzK

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 15, 2024

I was a year early and a coordinator shy on the #Saints offense ?

Alvin Kamara screen pic.twitter.com/9FiNZ4flCk

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 15, 2024

Alvin Kamara TD3 in first half. #Cowboys run focused on #Saints heavy side and Saints go to weak side with the run. pic.twitter.com/DfARNnzOUk

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 15, 2024

The Saints dismantled a good Cowboys defense on Sunday because Kubiak's expert application of his talent forced Dallas to account for too much. Give Derek Carr time to throw, and he's a competent fantasy starter capable of supporting 2-3 fantasy options in the passing game if you count Kamara as that third guy. 

Combined with a good Saints defense, New Orleans is the favorite to win the NFC South division, and fantasy GMs should expect top-24 WR production from both Olave and Shaheed and top-5 RB value from Kamara. 

2. Kyler Murray Got the Memo on Marvin Harrison Jr. 

Last week, I recommended you bench Harrison until Murray proved he'd prioritize Harrison in the passing game. It didn't take but half the quarter of the Rams game to see that Murray, who told the media that it wasn't his job to force the ball to Harrison, got the memo. 

I like to imagine the "memo" as a conversation between Murray and Drew Petzing that went something like this...

Petzing: It may not be your job, Kyler, but it's my job to make it your job. Feed Marv.

Murray: But Coach, what if he's not wide open?

Petzing: Feed him. 

Murray: What if there's bracketed...

Petzing: Feed. Him. 

Murray: What if he's pressed at the line?

Petzing: F-E-E-D H-I-M!

Murray: (Sighs and rolls his eyes)

Petzing: Let's get real, Kyler. You're football's equivalent of a black-hole player in pickup games on the basketball court. The moment the ball goes to you, nobody sees it again. You've supported one player with top-24 receiving production in the league during your three healthy seasons in the NFL.

One. And while DeAndre Hopkins had too much class to say he didn't ask to be traded, what veteran with your track record as a decision-maker wants to work with you? 

This is your chance, Kyler. If all you see is a flash of red streaking up the boundary or a hint of our bird, rip it. Hell, if you tell me you saw red and it was a bandage or wrap on an L.A. cornerback, I'm not going to throw you under the bus. 

Feed Marvin. Let me hear you say it. 

Murray: What? 

Petzing: I need to hear it. You can't dodge this for an eternity like you're in a pocket that, by the way, you were responsible for destroying. Be the sun, Kyler, not a black hole. 

Fast-forward to Sunday...

Marvin Harrison Jr TD1

Tracking over the shoulder in tight coverage is where he’s the best in this class.

Murray: But Coach, 7-12 seconds of running around like a child having a tantrum in a grocery store gets me on SportsCenter.

We want 3-5 seconds of this, Kyler..

But…… pic.twitter.com/vdBCYBConw

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 16, 2024

TD No. 2 for Marvin Harrison Jr. pic.twitter.com/w8LhigFIaE

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 16, 2024

You don't need me to tell you that Harrison should be in your lineups moving forward. That said, the Rams zone coverage was Charmin soft and they did a poor job of accounting for Harrison multiple times during his first-quarterback points-fest. 

L.A. did not look nearly as ready for the Cardinals' passing game as Buffalo in Week 1. Buffalo also used a little more man-to-man with a defender playing over the top of Harrison than what we saw from L.A. 

Harrison looked like the player we saw at Ohio State and that's a blue-chip prospect. 

There's still a healthy risk that opponents force Murray to prove he'll prioritize Harrison regardless of coverage types, and the L.A. performance winds up a high mark for the season. 

Even so, err on the side of optimism with Harrison now that Murray did what we hoped.