The Top 10: The Cliff's Notes
- Marvin Harrison, Jr. is as much of a problem with his production as Kyler Murray. Bench Harrison for now.
- Isaiah Likely merits an investment as a free agent thanks to how he was targeted.
- Mark Andrews is not washed up. He'll get his. Proclamations of players losing their explosion are mostly naive arrogance.
- Saquon Barkley is better than ever and worth every bit of his draft-day investment, if not more.
- Chiefs' DL Chris Jones and teammates confused the Ravens' OL. Don't overreact with Baltimore fantasy options.
- Kirk Cousins can't drive off his front foot to generate intermediate velocity on timing routes, and Atlanta knows it. Monitor Cousins closely for the next 3-5 weeks. Michael Penix Jr. might play this year.
- Baker Mayfield has improved since Cleveland dumped him. He has the freedom and improved pocket management skills to be a productive field general. Buy.
- Dontayvion Wicks will be worth your attention at some point this year. Monitor from afar and swoop in as appropriate.
- Aaron Rodgers did a great job finding matchups for Allen Lazard when they were in Green Bay. Lazard has rebounded in camp this year and could rebound this season.
- 10 Things that could happen this year based on what I saw on film this week.
1. Bench: Marvin Harrison Jr.
Kyler Murray has supported one top-10 fantasy asset in the passing game during his career. One. The next best outputs by a receiver working with Murray? Christian Kirk was WR26 and Larry Fitzgerald was WR35.
Murray is a good fantasy points producer. He's not a good quarterback.
None of these facets of Murray's quarterbacking have improved dramatically during his NFL career:
- Route miscommunications with receivers.
- Bailing pressure to one side and cutting off his options.
- Failing to climb unless forced and creating pressure that wasn't there.
- A poor pocket clock
- Missing pre-snap opportunities to make productive adjustments.
Kyler Murray-Marvin Harrison miscommunication. pic.twitter.com/pxIvCelgfq
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 8, 2024
Kyler Murray red zone decision making on this play limited his team. pic.twitter.com/cIo0DX5Gfs
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 8, 2024
Marvin Harrison Jr drop
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 8, 2024
He and Murray seem out of sync. pic.twitter.com/OlXgd3OKos
Kyler Murray game management pic.twitter.com/IYbDUyaxQY
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 8, 2024
Kyler Murray with an elongated pump and gets sacked. Loses a fumble pic.twitter.com/nkGGPiBH0N
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 8, 2024
Until Murray matures and becomes a better team quarterback than a "me" quarterback, anticipate Harrison dramatically underperforming to his top-15 average draft position this year. Bench Harrison if your lineups require only 2-3 receivers.
He might eventually be worth a WR3 spot, but wait for proof. Don't dwell on your sunk costs.
2. Isaiah Likely Merits An Investment
The bulk of Likely's film didn't match the buzz coming from it if looking simply at his talent. The Chiefs took away Mark Andrews and gave Lamar Jackson Likely.
Mark Andrews draws 3-4 #ChiefsKingdom defenders up the seam and it opens the leak to Isaiah Likely off this play-action backside throw that draws 6 defenders to Derrick Henry early. #RavensFlock pic.twitter.com/5C8whrz01f
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 6, 2024
Mark Andrews getting the bulk of zone attention to open the shallow check to Isaiah Likely in the late second quarter.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 6, 2024
The following play, the same thing vs Andrews and an attempt to a crossing route underneath to WR.
Ravens took what Chiefs gave them. They gave them Likley. pic.twitter.com/aWBEpEKzY2
It doesn't matter that the Chiefs gave Jackson Likely this week. What matters is the potential for repeatable fantasy value and the gravity of what those plays tell us as fantasy GMs.
Lamar Jackson targeted Likely on two potential game-winning targets -- one of them after Likely left the field for a play after an injury and was only a toe's width from victory -- that reinforces how much he trusts Likely.
The pair also showed advanced rapport on a scramble drill.
Nick Bolton was really good in Week 1, but #RavensFlock Lamar Jackson did have a play where he got the best of the #ChiefsKingdom LB.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 6, 2024
Mark Andrews opens the field for Jax and Likley to do Bolton dirty. pic.twitter.com/qII8WqGkDk
Baltimore used a lot of 22 and 12-personnel sets (two tight ends with 1 or 2 running backs) last week. Expect that to continue. At the same time...
3. Mark Andrews Will Get His
Andrews is not "washed." He was gassed at the end of the game. So was the Chiefs defense.
I've been scouting football players for 21 years. Discerning whether a player has lost something athletically is far more difficult than the ease I hear people make these proclamations.
Injuries are often a factor. So are technical and conceptual considerations as well as the game scenarios where people are judging these players.
I've asked experienced NFL scouts and trainers of pros if they can tell whether a player is "washed," and if they could, I'd like tips.
They all laughed or said it was the hardest thing to do.
Look at the film above of Andrews drawing 2-4 Chiefs defenders on several passes that freed up Isaiah Likely. This won't happen all season. We may even see teams give that treatment to Likely at some point.
4. Saquon Barkley Isn't Washed; He's Better Than Ever
I've been selling tickets to the Saquon Barkley Vengeance Tour on the Feel It or F-It Podcast with Bob Harris since Barkley landed in Philadelphia. Barkley killed it on opening night.
How you finish as an RB.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 8, 2024
Accelerate into the collision
Initiate the collision
Good leverage with pads
Attack one side of the chest
Keep feet moving
Jamaal Charles was excellent at this and he wasn't Saquon Barkley's size.
It's technique and mentality. #EaglesVsPackers pic.twitter.com/6I20u8LKRc
Where Saquon Barkley has matured as a runner over the years.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 8, 2024
He used to have more lapses where he ran to open space and ignored the scheme's dictates.
A good example of his maturation. #EaglesVsPackers pic.twitter.com/G8UzgnfuR8
The Saquon Barkley Wheel Route TD and all the personnel/schematic components making it happen.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 8, 2024
#EaglesVsPackers pic.twitter.com/f6luZl5bw5
Saquon Barkley's acceleration on this play is fun. #EaglesVsPackers pic.twitter.com/pdgOqrEh8q
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 8, 2024
Barkley is a much better inside runner than D'Andre Swift and Miles Sanders were. He's a better receiver, too. The Eagles' skill talent is a pick-your-poison scenario. Barkley will be a top-5 RB this year. Likely top-3.