The season has enough sample size to draw conclusions about NFL offenses and player utilization. However, the fantasy season is barreling towards the business section of the calendar, where at least 1-2 teams in a league are looking toward 2025 already. Here are the key NFL and fantasy observations at the running back position:

Arizona

James Conner has dominated the market share (as expected) early in the season. The key takeaway is two-fold through five weeks. First, Arizona is the worst HLO (high-leverage opportunity) team in the NFL for their running backs. Be skeptical of the upside of Emari Demercado or Trey Benson if Conner misses time. Also, Trey Benson was a healthy scratch in Week 5, and Demercado has been the clear RB2 thus far. Benson is an ideal dynasty running back target for teams who are falling out of the 2024 postseason race and pointing their attention toward 2025. Benson is also a potential sell for contending help for teams high in the standings as Benson is a non-producer and might be a non-producer even if Conner misses a chunk of games.

Buffalo

James Cook is having a robust season (RB11 in PPG), but the most interesting aspect of the depth chart is veteran Ty Johnson, the clear RB2 over Ray Davis. That may transition to Davis later in the season, but Johnson is one of the underrated "What if?" stash running backs for upside. Johnson is available in plenty of dynasty leagues as well as redraft leagues, yet stands to inherit the lead role if Cook misses time. One example is Johnson has four times the amount of routes as Davis on the season.

Carolina

Jonathon Brooks' practice window and pathway to making his NFL debut begins. He is the more exciting dynasty asset and proposition, but Chuba Hubbard is a sturdy veteran with a vice grip on the starting role for now. The Carolina offense with Andy Dalton starting has newfound appeal for upside from Hubbard and Diontae Johnson, which was not present with Bryce Young. Hubbard is venturing into a dynasty cost zone where the assumption is Brooks will be back soon and easily seize the lead role. Brooks is returning from a significant knee injury and surgery and has yet to play in the NFL. It is entirely possible Brooks has limited opportunities to rise up the depth chart in 2024 and is more of a 2025 proposition for significant work.

Cincinnati

Zack Moss may have skirted a significant injury in Week 5, but he is on the hot list for Week 6 tracking, in addition to the Cincinnati backfield being one of the most important for dynasty leagues over the rest of the season. Cincinnati has been top-12 in High-Leverage Opportunity (HLO) Score in four of the first five weeks, posting both quality goal-line and running back targets. Chase Brown is simmering in the RB2 role but with explosive upside if Moss were to miss any time. This backfield has already morphed into more of a committee than the opening weeks of the season, and Brown is primed for even more upside.

Detroit

Jahmyr Gibbs is RB9 in PPG despite being in a full-blown committee with David Montgomery, a reminder of Gibbs' ridiculous ceiling (RB1 overall) if Montgomery misses any time. The same general principle applies to David Montgomery, as Detroit is the premiere HLO situation in the NFL. The Lions are No.1 in HLO score and have produced two top-10 running backs through five weeks in points-per-game. The big takeaways are these are auto-start running backs under current conditions with high-end league-winning upside if clarity presents itself. A final note: Craig Reynolds is an intriguing RB3 should the depth chart venture down that far later in the season.

Green Bay

The equation looked rosy for Josh Jacobs joining Green Bay this offseason for his best fantasy season yet. Jacobs has been the unquestioned starter, but the Packers have been one of the worst HLO offenses over five weeks. They have one weekly finish better than 18th in a category and are 28th in running back targets per game. In short, Jacobs is in a tough upside environment. Jacobs is RB26 on the season and would still be outside the top-12 backs if posting an additional touchdown or two. Additionally, question the upside of MarShawn Lloyd (if healthy) and Emanuel Wilson if Jacobs is out later this season.

LA Chargers

The Chargers are coming off their bye week, and J.K. Dobbins has been a rousing success story coming back from the string of injuries in his career. However, the upside of the situation is limited as they are dead-last in HLO and have yet to finish better than 26th in any week this season. The Chargers are also the only team yet to have a goal-line carry (inside the five-yard line) for a running back this season. Dobbins is living off his quality fantasy performances over the first two weeks when he broke multiple long runs and scored twice outside the goal line. Dobbins is risky both from a durability perspective but also projecting a strong impact fantasy running back emerging from this offense.

LA Rams

The biggest observation from the Rams' backfield is the key shift in Week 5. Ronnie Rivers was the clear RB2 and a vice-grip dynasty roster spot through the opening month of the season. In Week 5, Blake Corum rose like a phoenix into the RB2 role, rotating with Kyren Williams early in the game. Corum saw red zone work on a successful drive and even a goal-line carry, which was stuffed at the line of scrimmage. Williams plunged in for the touchdown later that drive, but the dialogue around Corum and the backfield would be quite different if Corum had converted for the touchdown. Corum is where many projected back in August, the RB2 and a Kyren Williams injury away from being a potential league-winning player. Ronnie Rivers can be dropped in all but the deepest dynasty leagues.

Strength of Schedule

The Footballguys powerful strength of schedule tool is up at running now here.

Looking at the next four weeks, here are the notable running back schedules:

Next Month's Best Schedules

• Titans +11.4 PPG
• Dolphins +10.1 PPG
• Saints +10.0 PPG
• Cardinals +9.2 PPG
• Falcons +8.6 PPG

The Dolphins have a Week 6 bye to get De'Von Achane back from a concussion. The Saints are dealing with a Derek Carr oblique injury coming out of Week 5's Monday Night Football loss to the Chiefs. With Bijan Robinson's struggles, the Carolina Week 6 target matchup comes at the perfect time. James Conner has been a middle-of-the-road RB2 with Arizona's high-leverage opportunities among the lowest in the NFL. The Chargers and Dolphins are target matchups in Week 7 and Week 8.

Next Month's Worst Schedules

• Buccaneers -24.4 PPG
• Raiders -15.2 PPG
• 49ers -10.7 PPG
• Chargers -8.9 PPG
• Panthers -6.4 PPG

This might be the most difficult aSOS slate in recent memory for running backs with Tampa Bay having all avoid matchups over the next month. Rachaad White's role as the workhorse has already dissipated with Bucky Irving rising. The Raiders have Zamir White returning from injury, plus uncertainty at quarterback with the Steelers and Chiefs being avoid matchups. Despite avoid matchups in aSOS for running backs on the Chargers' schedule, no offense in the next month (Broncos, Cardinals, Saints, Browns) is an overt threat to force Los Angeles out of their ball control and lower-scoring ways in terms of game script.

Check out all of Chad Parsons' content at Footballguys.