A month into the season is enough sample size to draw conclusions about NFL offenses and player utilization. However, the fantasy season is barreling towards the business section of the calendar where at least 1-2 teams in a league are looking toward 2025 already. Here are the key NFL and fantasy observations at the quarterback position:
Cleveland
Deshaun Watson has not been as bad as advertised in Cleveland. Watson has produced an above average number of high-level throws and avoided turnovers, two massive data traits for successful quarterbacks. His 3.50 ratio of those two stats is well beyond the threshold for higher-level quarterback play (2.00). Watson is widely available in superflex dynasty leagues and a solid trade strategy if needing help at quarterback.
Denver
Bo Nix is on a Bryce Young-type trajectory. Denver's offense lacks playmakers around Nix, but Nix's results through the opening month are very 2023 Bryce Young-esque in terms of lacking bigger plays and generally limiting the offense. The most glaring trait Nix exhibited at a superior level to Young a year ago is his ability to avoid sacks. It is early, but the signs on Bo Nix are negative and pointing to a massive step needed in 2025.
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Miami
Tua Tagovailoa might be the most important quarterback in fantasy. This is not Tagovailoa himself as a producer, but the impact of his loss. The past two games, without Tagovailoa, have resulted in catastrophe for the supporting cast with Skylar Thompson, Tim Boyle, and Tyler Huntley under center. De'Von Achane has 14 points total over the two games (21-45-0 rushing stat line), Tyreek Hill has 15 points (7-63-0 receiving stat line), and Jaylen Waddle has managed 14 points (8-62-0 receiving stat line). In short, there is a power outage until Tagovailoa returns.
Minnesota
Sam Darnold's 0.62 fantasy points per dropback is higher than any qualifying season in recent season. Aaron Rodgers' 0.60 is the highest on record in 2020 and since then Brock Purdy's 0.55 last season is the other comparable note. Darnold is also three passing touchdowns over expectation. Darnold is white hot but has a major test in Week 5 (Jets) and a Week 6 bye upcoming.
New England
The Drake Maye waiting game. Jacoby Brissett continues to start for the offensively-challenged New England offense as the line play mires as one of the worst blocking units in the NFL. Maye is the lone reason for optimism later in the season as Brissett has struggled mightily to avoid pressure, push the ball vertically, or avoid potential turnovers.
NY Jets
Maybe Garrett Wilson's breakout was not waiting for Aaron Rodgers? Wilson is averaging 1.5 fewer points per game and has logged his lowest yards per route run (1.26) in the opening month compared to previous seasons. Allen Lazard is a meaningful part of the passing game and Mike Williams continues to get up to speed in the early weeks. Wilson was valued as an elite dynasty receiver in the offseason with the presumption Rodgers would surely elevate Wilson's volume into more production in 2024. Through Week 4, Wilson has been more of the middling same than anything greater.
Philadelphia
Jalen Hurts has been without his key wide receivers for a chunk of the opening month with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith missing time. However, Hurts is playing horrifically, however, with an NFL-leading 11 turnover-worthy plays. Since his 2022 peak (to date), Hurts' fantasy points per dropback (passing) has dropped from 0.41 to 0.35 to now 0.29 through four games this season. Hurts is fourth among quarterbacks in rushing yards and has scored twice on the ground to mask his passing game struggles.
Strength of Schedule
The Footballguys powerful strength of schedule tool is up at running now here.
Looking at the next four weeks, here are the notable quarterback schedules:
Next Month's Best Schedules
- Jordan Love, +15.9 points
- Caleb Williams, +13.1 points
- Kirk Cousins, +9.1 points
- Deshaun Watson, +6.4 points
- Brock Purdy, +6.3 points
Jordan Love was white hot in Week 4 and poised for a massive next month with all quality matchups on the schedule, including the Rams in Week 5 and Jaguars in Week 8. Caleb Williams needs to play significantly better in the upcoming games as the schedule (Carolina, Jacksonville, bye week, Washington) softens. Deshaun Watson has a strong matchup against Washington in Week 5. Side with Watson in lineups.
Next Month's Worst Schedules
- Andy Dalton, -8.6 points
- Kyler Murray, -8.5 points
- Justin Herbert, -7.8 points
- Baker Mayfield, -6.8 points
- Derek Carr, -5.8 points
Andy Dalton has been a breath of fresh air to supply optimism for the Carolina offense. However, Chicago (Week 5) and Denver (Week 8) are avoid matchups. Dalton will be a great streamer in Week 7 with the Washington matchup. A slow start by Justin Herbert is likely to continue with a Week 5 bye and Denver in Week 6.
Check out all of Chad Parsons' content at Footballguys.
