A big part of dynasty (and fantasy football as a whole) is taking a stand on whether we believe what we have seen will continue. This could be from week to week, year to year, or in dynasty from a previous-to-future general sense. By this point of the season, taking stock of your roster and team situation is key.

Historical Odds

Over the offseason, one historical project looked at season starts and the playoff odds in dynasty leagues. Specifically, the analysis was done during the first month of head-to-head results.

Let's start with the quick good news and 3-0 teams. They have a 91% chance to make the playoffs in the sample, which grows to 97% if advancing to 4-0. Even if they lose this week to go to 3-1, they are 82% playoff bets. In short, this is not a critical week for those teams in the macro view. That should be of no surprise as many good teams get off to quality starts, whether in the NFL or in a dynasty.

Next, 2-1 teams. At present, they are at 68% odds of making the playoffs. With a win, they elevate to 3-1 and 82% like above. The key point is dropping to 2-2 does not produce 50% odds. Instead, the result is 43%. These are all six-team playoff structures and 12-team leagues for the record. The explanation is likely that 4-0 and 3-1 teams at this juncture are such favorites to secure many of the playoff spots that 2-2 teams are closer to the 1-3 teams in odds. By historical probabilities, the 2-1 teams this week have the most to gain and lose by their result.

The 1-2 teams have little on the line in Week 4. Their 35% odds today rise to only 43% with a 2-2 record and 23% with a loss to a 1-3 record. In short, 1-2 teams are not in a great spot, but their 1-3 odds are not much worse. One of the key takeaways from this study was a 1-3 start is not a death knell and should not be a time to fold up camp and look ahead to the next year.

Finally, the 0-3 teams. This is a critical week. At 5% odds today, they rise to 23% with a win to a 1-3 record. However, it drops to 3% with a loss. At 0-4, that is a legitimate moment to question the current season and know you are a substantial historical outlier to make the playoffs. Also, a much longer bet than even 1-3 teams. Also, know that probably half of the playoff spots, if not more, are near-locks to the other teams.

One other aspect to consider is at 0-4, there is not as much schedule luck (misfortune), which could be at play as compared to once or twice going up against the highest-scoring team in the league or being a hard-luck loser early on. Getting a single win in the opening month is the minimum threshold for optimism.

Diagnosis: Further Analysis

Myfantasyleague.com is my go-to dynasty league hosting site for several reasons. One of which is applying in-season team management shading with their "Power Rankings" statistics. In head-to-head formats, getting lost in the binary "Did I win or lose?" weekly outcome is easy. The Power Ranking information (under the header "Scores") also includes key data such as:

Potential Points: This is my favorite way to distribute rookie draft positions for non-playoff teams. This uses best-ball concepts to score your optimal lineup each week. Also, Potential Points provide clarity on the true strength of a team independent of their lineup decisions.

Efficiency: This shows the difference between your potential points (optimized best ball scoring for the season) and your actual starting lineup each week.

Max PF: Your best weekly score

Coulda Won, Woulda Lost: The game results in flux due to lineup decisions where the outcome would change with a more or less optimized lineup.

All-Play Record: Your Win-Loss record if you had played every team in the league each week.

Each of these categories provides a second-level sense of how your team is faring within the league. Potential Points and All-Play are the most global data points. Deep teams of talent have more difficult lineup decisions, so their potential points can be higher and can see a lower efficiency mark as a result.

Teams with a strong win-loss record and a low all-play mark point to a fortunate schedule. The same thing applies to a low ranking in potential points (or high efficiency). This can point to a team being 'maxed out' even pushing all the right buttons weekly.

Three weeks into the season is the perfect time to begin to assess these secondary (and more detailed) ways of team strength. A strong record with low Power Ranking metrics (or a lack of depth for the upcoming bye weeks plus injuries) can point to regressing to the pack. On the flip side, A slow start but strong secondary metrics (and returning players from injury) point to a rebound coming.

Critical Questions

When analyzing your dynasty teams, summarize some of the points above and look beyond the current W-L record for secondary information. Check out the remaining, or the next two to three, games on your schedule. Are they notably strong or weak teams on your slate? Is your All-Play record far different than your W-L record?

Do you have players injured and not back for a few weeks (or not at all)? On the flip side, are you getting back someone of note in the short term?

Being early as a potential seller (or buyer) has value in a dynasty league. However, declaring your season over when your odds (see a 1-3 record above) still provide a decent shot can siphon away an otherwise competitive next two months of a fantasy regular season. A key loss this week or next could be the realistic end to your playoff probabilities and shift your team to a clear trade market seller.

The final point, and more in future installments, is to make dynasty trades and not short-sided deals hinging only on this season or selling off players who can help your title push in 2025 just because contention is not occurring in 2024.

Check out all of Chad Parsons' content at Footballguys.