Two weeks into the season is far too short of a sample size to pull the rip cord on the season. However, some may already be looking toward 2024. The next few weeks are critical to poke and prod the bottom teams in your dynasty league for trading opportunities and to let them know you are active and open to trading when/if the time comes on their end. Here are tips and tricks, starting now and continuing through the gauntlet of teams deciding if they are in or out on the season to contend and navigate the dynasty trade market:
Contend Until Eliminated
It is easy to throw in the towel early in the season at 0-2, 0-3, or 0-4 and move on with your attention to your other contending dynasty teams. However, I have numerous personal examples of making the playoffs after a disappointing September and countless from subscribers and listeners. This includes, like NFL teams, when you need two wins to close the regular season plus help from teams losing also in the hunt.
The Power of Time and Attrition
You may have been stung with early-season injuries and missed games like Puka Nacua, Christian McCaffrey, Raheem Mostert, Ken Walker III, and others. However, being in the volume running back business (and backup quarterbacks in Superflex) means time is your friend. Any starter from a leaguemate's roster at running back or quarterback who is out stands to benefit (most likely) in at least one of your leagues. Like an interception adding to your defense's fantasy tally and hurting your opponent's quarterback score, there is a dual benefit to you in these injury situations. The skill is being patient to allow time and attrition to benefit you. Yes, there have already been at least four NFL running back depth charts where the starter on paper back in August has missed a game or is projected out for Week 3. Some teams are down to RB3 already. In a typical year, more than 50 quarterbacks start an NFL game. The time value of being patient benefits those piling up primary backup (and sometimes tertiary) options waiting for the injury attrition. Week 3 is still on the early side to truly reap the dual benefits of subtraction from their lineups and addition to yours.
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Attack Bottom-Dwelling Teams
Some teams will pack it in at 0-2 and fire sale their productive and/or older players to jump-start their vision towards 2025. Others will wait until 0-3, or 0-4, or 1-6 to fold up shop. There will be breaking points for teams at the bottom of the standings. Waiting for them to approach you with their contending pieces is a recipe for disaster. You might be 0-2 and following the rule of "contend until officially eliminated", but they are sending offers only to 2-0 and 1-1 teams. They might assume you are heading towards 2025 like them simply because you have the same record. Sending offers for their notable players or contending pieces weekly keeps the engagement dialogue open that you are an interested buyer. Also, assess their team from the same prism you would your own. Next week's installment will discuss how to analyze your team's standing beyond the high-variance win-loss record, but look at their points scored, points against, injured players, all-play record, and other elements. Are they an unlucky 0-2 with a better true assessment or a legit 0-2 and trending towards 0-4 more likely than 2-2 by the end of the season's opening month?
Fat Trimming
If you invest heavily in the backup running back market, a constant to-do list item targets running back-needy teams and rebalancing your roster by trading running back for other positions for upgrades and supplementation. Here are just a few running backs who have seen a rise in lineup utility and/or market value since the start of the season. You might be deep enough at running back where multiple NFL starters or 1A options are on your bench.
- Zach Charbonnet
- Ty Chandler
- Braelon Allen
- Carson Steele
- Samaje Perine
- Bucky Irving
- Jordan Mason
- Rico Dowdle
- Jerome Ford
- J.K. Dobbins
Finally, here are a few examples of trades this week as examples to deal with the above players and continue to churn to open roster spots for the next wave of interesting running backs:
- Zach Charbonnet, Braelon Allen for George Pickens
- Zach Charbonnet, Allen Lazard for Rashid Shaheed
- Ty Chandler, Alec Pierce for Najee Harris
- Carson Steele, 3rd, 4th for Blake Corum, 2nd
- Carson Steele, 3rd for 2nd, 4th
- Carson Steele, Samaje Perine for 2nd
- Bucky Irving, 2nd for Michael Penix Jr.
- Jordan Mason, 2nd for 1st
- Jordan Mason, J.K. Dobbins for Jonathon Brooks, 2nd
- J.K. Dobbins for 1st
- J.K. Dobbins, 2nd for Travis Etienne Jr., 4th
The next batch of stash running backs includes:
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