The Giants are on bye this week. When the press asked head coach Brian Daboll and GM Joe Schoen about Daniel Jones' future, neither would commit to Jones remaining the starting quarterback in Week 12. NFL insider Adam Schefter speculated Jones' career as the Giants' starter is over.
What matters most to us is how this impacts the Giants' fantasy options. Who should we be buying, selling, and holding in this offense?
Buy: Drew Lock
The Giants media asked Schoen this week who was getting first-team reps and Schoen said practice is looking a lot different than it has in the past. Because Lock has been the No.2 option on the depth chart, it's likely he earns the first shot to take over for Jones.
I'm about to share a long backstory about Lock because there's some worthwhile insider context behind his career arc. If you don't care, that's fine, skip the next dozen paragraphs.
I could not give a clear endorsement of Lock as an early-round prospect when I scouted him for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio because his reliance on his arm talent far outpaced his conceptual and technical refinement at the position, and it appeared Lock didn't have the desire to work at his craft.
This was notable when he starred at Missouri. Lock got away with bad game management, late decisions, bad reads, and sloppy technique against most teams. When he faced the Alabamas, Georgias, and LSUs of the college football world, the margin for error narrowed and he cost his team series, points, turnovers, and wins.
The analogy I gave for Lock's behavior was of the smart high school student who got away with making As and Bs without much studying. He'd try to summon his talent as a quick study in college, but the complexity of the information required the discipline of daily work and his performance plummeted.
Missouri's coaching staff enabled Lock. They had no reason to do otherwise -- Missouri is a mid-level-to-low-level SEC program that couldn't get as much top-tier national talent as Alabama, Georgia, and LSU.
They didn't have a player on the bench with Lock's ability. As long as Lock helped the team get to a bowl game, their season was a success and the coaches weren't under pressure.
If Lock was at Alabama, the threat of a young prospect taking Lock's job if he didn't constantly work at his craft was ever-present. At Missouri, coaches might tell Lock where he can improve and why it might matter to him as a pro, but Lock also had a ton of voices telling him that he was a top NFL prospect.
This was my presumption of Lock's behavior based solely on his college tape. Years later, Cecil Lammey, who had read my pre-draft scouting report, had gotten to know Lock's dad. Lammey confirmed my priors with this story:
When Lock arrived in Denver, Peyton Manning reached out and offered his services to the young quarterback. Lock thanked Manning for the offer but never acted on it. Only when Lock faltered for two years and the Broncos acquired Teddy Bridgewater to compete with Lock for the starting role did Lock reach out to Manning.
This is typical behavior of a talented young man who heard throughout his early and late adolescence that he was great. Lock had private quarterback coaches, camp invitations, and a lot of press. He was talented and privileged.
A more mature, focused young man with greater self-awareness would have looked at the offer from Manning a lot differently than Lock. If I had the perspective I have today and Lock's talent, I would have asked if I could move into Manning's garage and do chores for the Hall of Famer.
I'd want as much time, wisdom, and coaching from Manning as possible. If that's what it took, I'd be washing cars, walking dogs, changing diapers, and moving lawns for his help.
Lock's dad told Cecil that he loved his son and that Lock was a terrific young man, but he (and others) had been telling Lock since high school that he had to prepare more if he was going thrive in the NFL. It only began to click for Lock when Bridgewater became a threat to Lock's starting role.
When Lock wound up in Seattle he had some compelling moments in starts against the Eagles and 49ers in place of the injured Geno Smith. Here are some cutups of the good things Lock did -- and has often done as a strong talent, but not often a great student of the game.
Where Drew Lock wins in ways that could elevate Malik Nabers and company.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 12, 2024
- Vertical aggression and placement
- Less time needed to pull the trigger.
- Better pocket clock
- Functional pocket movement looking to throw first, run later.
- Placement pic.twitter.com/zGJQzxrqji
Lock had an emotional post-game interview on national television after leading the Seahawks to a late victory over the Eagles. Based on what I shared about his career arc, you could see how Lock had stared in the face of his potential career death and realized he hadn't maximized his opportunities.
He had faced the Great Emotional Divide. What Lock has done since facing it is something we're about to discover. If he has put in the work, it's possible he could revive his career despite Giants media dismissing him out of hand as "knowing what he is."
I am not telling you I believe Lock will revive his career as a starter, but I'm open to the possibility. I've also been telling you since this spring that I've been projecting Lock to eventually take over for Jones, and Lock would be a better option for his receiving corps for the reasons listed in the Twitter/X post above.
Lock can get careless with the football, but he's decisive and gives receivers opportunities to win. Jones has always had significant flaws that got in the way of his teammates' success.
Lock's big-play mentality and quick trigger should boost Malik Nabers' game and return him to top-15 fantasy starter production. It could also open more big play opportunities for Darius Slayton when he returns from concussion protocol.
Wan'Dale Robinson and Nabers should also benefit more from Lock off-script. Although Lock has the arm talent and accuracy on vertical shots up the boundary, Lock has a pocket clock that Jones never had.
It means Lock finds his running backs on leaks and check-downs. Devin Singletary and Tyrone Tracy Jr. could earn more targets.
With the Giants facing weak pass defenses after the bye -- Tampa, Dallas, Baltimore, Atlanta, New Orleans, and Indianapolis, Lock is worth a flier as a fantasy QB2 who might become a matchup QB1.
Monitor: Tommy DeVito
A local hero, DeVito's five-game run with at least a touchdown between Weeks 10-14 inspired Giants fans -- especially his 246-yard, 3-TD outing against the Commanders in Week 11. I explored whether DeVito was for real last year.
The answer? Yes, he's a viable NFL quarterback. The better answer: He has the potential to become a quality backup who could eventually grow into a journeyman starter ala Gardner Minshew II.
The compelling reasons are the parts of DeVito's game that have nothing to do with his offensive scheme or the opposing schemes he has faced thus far. His pocket management and footwork are sustainable parts of his game.
DeVito has quick, precise feet. It shows up with his drops, his movement from pressure in the pocket, his ability to reset and fire an accurate ball after avoiding pressure, and even as an open-field runner.
It's the accuracy and precision to adjust and throw with good pass placement that gives DeVito a real shot to sustain his viability as an NFL passer. Note that I haven't labeled him an NFL starter.
At this point, we haven't seen how well DeVito will handle various blitzes, coverages, and the ingenious ways pro defenders and coaches can disguise them. This is a vital part of successful quarterbacking long-term in the NFL.
He also lacks franchise-starter arm talent. If you're seeking a quarterback who can drive the ball with velocity on the move or off-platform, forget it.
DeVito wins with anticipation, delivering the ball just as the receiver begins his break. This includes vertical routes. As the film illustrates, DeVito's best vertical shots are ones he delivers just as the receiver is beginning his break, and the pass-catcher can run under the ball — 30-40 yards up the boundary is the top end of his range. Anything greater offers diminishing returns.
When a quarterback lacks a cannon, he must have skills that compensate for this limitation. DeVito has won for the Giants with the help of his anticipation, quick decisions after avoiding pressure, and chain-moving gains as a runner, you can see what most of those compensatory factors are with his game.
In this respect, DeVito's style of play — strengths and limitations — resembles former MVP Rich Gannon, a quick-release passer with good anticipation who could buy time, gain yards with his legs, and use those skills to offset his arm strength that had a top end of 35-40 yards in the vertical game.
Bet on DeVito being the backup. Unless he begins displaying the tight-window talents of Brock Purdy, he's unlikely a long-term starter of note.
If he starts and thrives, he'll offer more fantasy support to Nabers, Johnson, and Robinson than Slayton and Hyatt. Lock is better equipped to unlock Slayton and Hyatt's ceilings in the vertical passing game. DeVito will also utilize Tracy and Singletary more in the passing game.
Dump: Daniel Jones
Unless Lock and DeVito get hurt, Jones is likely done in New York. I semi-infamously labeled Jones a fraud on draft night. The reason was Dave Gettleman, whose staff bought into the idea that Jones was a David Cutcliffe protege.
Cutcliffe was known for having a hand in the refinement of the Manning brothers' games at Tennessee and Ole Miss. Roughly half of the league bought into the Cutcliffe label associated with Jones at Duke. This was a case of incomplete diligence from scouts and personnel management across the league.
According to a source of mine with a lot of contacts in this arena, a Duke employee explained to NFL people (when asked) that Cutcliffe the head coach had a lot less time and impact on quarterbacks than Cutcliffe the former quarterback developer at Ole Miss and Tennessee. However, they marketed the Cutcliffe appeal to recruits and it only helps a college program to link Daniel Jones' potential first-round value for that reason.
Jones wasn't a fraud -- the reasons for his elevated draft capital were fraudulent. It played out this way in New York.
His pocket clock was always 1-2 beats slow and it led to him taking punishment and turning the ball over unnecessarily. He didn't see the field well. His game management was too inconsistent and so was his pass placement. He wasn't a great processor of information as the game unfolded.
Jones is the prototypical QB Robot in the pejorative sense of the term: A big-bodied, big-armed passer with enough athletic ability to perform in the NFL but lacking the refined tools between the ears that elevate less athletes like Brock Purdy. The athletic ability, arm talent, and association with Cutcliffe made Jones a safer prospect on paper so his early-round selection might appear more justifiable to some.
It wasn't. Jones likely finishes his career as a journeyman.
Buy: Malik Nabers
Nabers wins every type of route you want him to run. He excels in zone and man-to-man. He has also proven that he can win contested targets at the highest level.
Lock didn't play a lot with Courtland Sutton due to Sutton's ACL tear in 2020, but he showed rapport with two players who, separately, have common strengths with Nabers: Tim Patrick and Jerry Jeudy.
Patrick, an excellent vertical boundary player who can win contested targets at the sideline, had a career year in 2020 with Lock as the starter for the majority of those 15 games. Although Patrick had 6 more targets and 2 more receptions in 16 games the next year, his 79 targets, 51 catches, 742 yards, and 6 touchdowns were the superior output on a per-game basis.
Jeudy is a good zone player in the middle of the field with enough vertical speed to win with longer-developing plays. He's also a promising runner of timing routes.
Jeudy's best season came in 2022 with a 100-target, 67-catch, 972-yard, 6-score campaign. However, his rookie year in 2020 has been his second-best season to date with 113 targets, 52 catches, 856 yards, and 3 scores. It was also Jeudy's best fantasy season and his highest yards-per-catch output.
Nabers is a superior route runner to Jeudy, tougher at the catch point, and better after the catch. Nabers is also as good or better than Patrick at the boundary and more explosive in the vertical game.
Nabers is a match-up player and a player Lock can trust. He's DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett combined. Perhaps Lock implodes and the Giants' passing game suffers, but you have to take the chance on buying into Nabers.
Lock's strengths mesh with Nabers' and the schedule of defenses is as favorable as any in the league. Nabers is fantasy WR10 in PPR formats but he's WR31 for the past four starts. If you can acquire him as a mid-range fantasy WR2 for your lineup WR15-WR20 in value, you're getting a good deal.
I would sell Brian Thomas Jr., Jr, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Courtland Sutton, Marvin Harrison Jr., DK Metcalf, DeVonta Smith, and possibly Jayden Reed or CeeDee Lamb for Nabers if I had to go there.
Buy: Darius Slayton
Currently in concussion protocol, Slayton was WR36 from Weeks 6-9. During that span, Slayton averaged 16.1 yards per catch on 14 receptions for 225 yards.
His hands aren't as reliable as Nabers, but he gets open. With defenses likely to react to Nabers after Lock displays more downfield aggression with the rookie, Slayton could get some easier looks. He'll be available as a cheap addition you can rotate on and off your roster over the next 2-3 weeks to see if it works out.
Hold: Wan'Dale Robinson
Currently WR24 in PPR formats, Robinson's role won't change, but Lock's ability to get rid of the ball more efficiently than Jones and to extend plays could increase Robinson's viable targets. Lock has always been a talented off-platform thrower.
While the pre-draft comparisons to Patrick Mahomes II in this department were ridiculous and superficial, Lock can find options in ways Jones couldn't. Look for Robinson and Nabers to benefit the most as options who work across the field with a lot of their routes.
Monitor: Jalin Hyatt
The speedster from Tennessee has no problem winning in the vertical game and he can be an asset with RPOs. Lock is skilled in both arenas. If Lock forces opposing defenses to overplay Nabers and/or Slayton, Hyatt could get some sneaky big-play opportunities that lead to big weeks on few opportunities.
If Slayton can't return due to his concussion, Hyatt might become a match-up streamer against this slew of defenses who are among the most generous to fantasy wide receivers in the league.
Lock may have earned enough second-team reps with Hyatt that they have developed a rapport that could favor this occasional production.
Monitor: Isaiah Hodgins
Because Hodgins is a reserve, Lock may have earned enough rapport with Hodgins in practice to use him as a Tim Patrick Starter Pack. Hodgins wins against tight coverage at the boundary and in the red zone. He could give you a puncher's chance at meaningful points as a desperation bye-week start if you see consistent snaps and targets--albeit small--in the red zone.
Buy: Theo Johnson
The Giants have made Johnson a bigger part of the passing game during the past several weeks. Johnson has been TE13 in PPR formats for the past three weeks, thanks mostly to a touchdown in Week 9. However, he has averaged nearly six targets per game during that span and that's 50 percent of his target total for the entire season.
Lock showed he could gel with tight ends when he was Denver's starter. In 2020, Lock and Noah Fant combined for 9 catches, 138 yards, and 2 scores in Weeks 1-2.
When Lock returned in Week 6 and played through Week 11, Fant and Albert Okwuegbunam Jr. combined for 24 catches, 317 yards, and 1 touchdown. In Weeks 13-17, Lock and his tight ends combined for 34 catches, 333 yards, and 3 touchdowns.
You're looking at 67 catches, 788 yards, and 6 scores to tight ends from Lock in 2020. That combined effort was better than T.J. Hockenson's 67-catch, 723-yard, 6-score output that season as the No.5 fantasy tight end in PPR formats.
Johnson is the only game in town at tight end as a big-play threat. He could see the biggest rise in value with Lock in tow.
Monitor: Daniel Bellinger
Bellinger is a reliable play-action tight end in the flats. Think of him as a poor man's Tucker Kraft who can't get downfield as well. He may have some red zone value with Lock if there's rapport between them. Otherwise, it's unlikely Bellinger factors.
Buy: Tyrone Tracy, Jr.
With a more aggressive passing game that wins with quicker decisions, better tempo, and better results off-script, we could see opposing defenses employ more coverages and alignments that make the ground game more efficient.
Tracy converted from receiver to running back for a reason: He was not a strong pass catcher or top route runner. Still, Tracy should see better-looking targets in the passing game if the Giants don't solely rely on Singletary for that role after the bye week.
It has been a split thus far, but the Giants are probably evaluating everything on offense. They may decide that Singletary is a better option in passing-down situations.
Hold: Devin Singletary
Singletary could also benefit in the running game for the same reasons as Tracy, but we know he's injury insurance for most fantasy GMs at this point. His third-down/two-minute role in the passing game could increase if the Giants decide Tracy's hands and route acumen aren't satisfactory in comparison.
Good luck!