The What of the Matter
Quentin Johnston is improving as a pass catcher. It's a promising development.
Yet, growth is not linear. Johnston still demonstrates lapses with his attack that led to drops last year.
The Chargers have made slight adjustments to leverage Johnston's strengths while limiting the volume of targets where his game remains a work in progress.
Johnston's improvements and the Chargers' scheme changes are translating to fantasy production for Johnston after two weeks.
Can he sustain fantasy starter value? Although it's too early to make that assessment, Johnston is a valuable roster addition as a free agent or pot sweetener in a trade.
Based on what I've seen thus far, Johnston will be no worse than a flex or match-up streamer off the bench as we enter bye weeks.
Quentin Johnston is worth adding because he and the Chargers have increased his fantasy floor.
The Fantasy Details
Fantasy football's WR23 after two weeks; Johnston's was WR107 at this point last year.
Quentin Johnston's two touchdowns in Week 2 boosted his value into the fantasy starter tier for almost any league format. Subtract one from the total, and he's a borderline fantasy WR3/WR4 in lineups. Subtract both, and he's a borderline WR4/WR5.
Johnston and Ladd McConkey (fantasy's WR41) have led the Chargers' passing game. Joshua Palmer has 6 targets, 4 catches, and 34 yards after 2 weeks and only saw 2 targets in Week 2. A knee injury has limited Palmer early in the year.
While Johnston's end-of-season fantasy value remains a high-variance proposition that spans between a borderline WR2/WR3 and a WR4/WR5, the legitimate improvement to his receiving game is a promising development.
He's no longer a player who should be summarily written off because more reliable hands and a Chargers offense that limits where he's still unreliable allows L.A. to leverage his physical assets in open space and his promise as a route runner.
At worst, you're getting a borderline WR4/WR5 this year in 12-team leagues. Last year, Johnston finished as WR74--a high-end WR7 for rosters.
The Why: Signs L.A. Is Adjusting Scheme to Talent
Two weeks of data indicate the Chargers are using him a little more as an outside receiver but having him run fewer vertical routes.
Where the Chargers Are Aligning Quentin Johnston
| Alignment | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Wide Left | 47% | 67% |
| Slot Left | 5% | 3% |
| Tight Left | 1% | 1% |
| Tight Right | 0% | 1% |
| Slot Right | 4% | 2% |
| Wide Right | 41% | 26% |
| Backfield | 2% | 1% |
Depth of Quentin Johnston's Routes
| Length of Pass (Yards) | 2023 | 2024 | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| <=0 | 21% | 23% | 2% |
| 1 to 5 | 30% | 45% | 15% |
| 6 to 9 | 18% | 12% | -6% |
| 10 to 19 | 17% | 12% | -5% |
| 20 + | 13% | 10% | -3% |
Quentin Johnston's Routes with Notable Changes in Frequency
| Route | 2023 | Pct | 2024 | Pct | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hitch | 70 | 13.3% | 11 | 25% | 11.69% |
| Hole | 3 | 0.6% | 3 | 7% | 6.25% |
| Go | 118 | 22.4% | 8 | 18% | -4.25% |
| Dig | 33 | 6.3% | 1 | 2% | -4.00% |
| Seam | 21 | 4.0% | 0 | 0% | -3.99% |
| Screen | 27 | 5.1% | 4 | 9% | 3.96% |
| Drag | 40 | 7.6% | 5 | 11% | 3.76% |
| Slant Stop | 41 | 7.8% | 2 | 5% | -3.25% |
| Corner | 40 | 7.6% | 2 | 5% | -3.06% |
The Chargers have used him less on intermediate and deep boundary routes, and thus far, he hasn't run a single seam route. Jim Harbaugh may have told the media that Johnston is a good pass catcher, but I think he silently omitted the qualifier: "Quentin Johnston is a good pass catcher with what we're going to ask him to do."
L.A. is having Johnston run more routes that break with him facing the ball with his feet on the ground and fewer routes that invite more contested scenarios (Corner, Seam, Go, and Dig).
Two weeks of data can change dramatically. It's why I'm touting Johnston as a talent worth adding to your roster with a higher fantasy floor rather than convincing you that he's going to remain a top-24 fantasy receiver. This could happen, but Johnston's past issues are the reason a measured approach is wiser.