The Steelers benched Justin Fields for Russell Wilson. More accurately, the Steelers awarded Russell Wilson the starting job this summer, Wilson got hurt, and NFL coaches don't like to have a quarterback lose his job due to injury.
What matters most to us is how this impacts the Steelers' fantasy options. Who should we be buying, selling, and holding in this offense?
Hold/Buy: Russell Wilson
If you're desperate for a starting quarterback, Wilson should be a cheap addition to your roster. Most are skeptical about his production potential after Wilson's disastrous stint in Denver, the Steelers' porous offensive line, the lack of established aerial weapons in Pittsburgh, and Arthur Smith's reputation with personnel usage. It means you should get Wilson at a significant discount.
For most of you, Wilson has no value beyond holding him if he's already on your roster in re-draft or dynasty leagues. You're hoping he either plays his way into your lineups or elevates his value so you can trade him.
The football community has been down on Wilson for a while. I wrote about the hate for Wilson on and off the field two years ago. Although Wilson didn't deliver in Denver, there were a lot more reasons that were out of his control than characterized.
As for the vitriol from the media, I thought it was petty -- especially from Kyle Brandt (and you can read about it in that link above). However, we've since learned that his teammates felt that Wilson held them at arm's length--even in Seattle. When Marshawn Lynch is critical of Wilson, you know there's fire with that smoke.
That said, teammates loved Brett Favre, Ben Roethlisberger, and Deshaun Watson before the world saw their off-field behaviors come to light. Wilson may lose the popularity referendum, but from what I've seen, he still has enough left to compete in the NFL.
Is he better than Fields? As a runner? Never. Fantasy GMs with Fields are disappointed in the loss of ceiling at QB.
As a passer? Absolutely. Wilson processes information faster and more accurately pre-snap and post-snap. He's also capable of winning from the pocket.
The big question - -and what's holding me back from recommending Wilson as a universal "buy" -- is the Steelers offensive line. They may not give Wilson the time to perform significantly better than Fields. I'm open to it, but only as a "hold" or cheap "buy" if desperate for a backup/emergency starter.
Hold: Justin Fields
You can't sell Fields. You can only hope that he gets another shot. Given the Steelers' pass protection, Wilson could falter physically or conceptually, and Pittsburgh would have no choice but to return to Fields.
You've probably seen a bunch of stats about Fields in the past 24 hours. Seth Walder at ESPN noted that Fields' 8.3 percent sack rate this year, despite a bottom-feeding offensive line, is a career-best mark for the young quarterback.
It's also not hard to find that Fields' completion percentage dropped below 60 percent during the past two weeks. So did his average yardage per attempt. Fields has also fumbled six times this year--four times in the past three games.
There's also the bottom line: The Steelers have lost two of the past three games--each by three points.
What does the film say? After watching Fields' past three games, it's easy to see why the Steelers are benching him. I posted a thread Wednesday afternoon with several videos from Fields's past three starts.
Here's the summary of the insights:
- Fields may have a career-low sack rate, but he generates sacks because he's a slow processor of pre-snap and post-snap information.
- He doesn't read the field with patience and accuracy when he has plenty of time.
- Fields has game-management lapses in critical areas of the field and game-script scenarios.
- Fields doesn't see the early and most efficient opportunities for big plays and stresses his offense.
- Fields sabotages the potential of plays with predetermined decisions that limit their potential.
Let's look at some examples...
This sack is on Justin Fields. He knows where he's going pre-snap. He sees the LB's head turned to the S after the snap. He doesn't need to hold the LB nearly as long as he does. He's late to throw to Pickens and then can't make the throw. pic.twitter.com/pN6XmvXm8E
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 16, 2024
Justin Fields on third down in FG range down by 14 takes a sack for a 22 yard loss in mid-third quarter.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 16, 2024
Pre-snap show of blitz from edges. He knows the routes and who should be coming unblocked. No adjustment to this. Should be a quick throw to left--two options there. Nope. pic.twitter.com/7DuTzscPIb
Justin Fields makes a terrific throw to Pickens off-structure.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 16, 2024
Unfortunately, he could have hit Pickens in structure and gives the WR a better shot for a bigger gain and be more efficient. Less risk. pic.twitter.com/R0NZ2YCzWr
Fields doesn't put 2+2 together well downfield. If you determine the S has leverage against the seam on the right side, it means you will have the open seam up the left.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 16, 2024
Fields misses this and the check-down opportunity. pic.twitter.com/AH4vBkcReO
There are four more videos you can find in this thread.
Fields can keep the Steelers competitive. He's already proven it. The Steelers don't believe Fields is ready to elevate this offense and they believe Wilson has the conceptual skills as a passer to do so. We're about to find out.
Buy: Najee Harris
Currently a low-end RB2 in PPR formats, Harris has only one touchdown. It's the difference between him being RB22 and a top-12 fantasy RB.
The utilization is there for Harris. He's 5th in rushing attempts, 10th in rushing yards, tied for 11th in receptions, and 15th in yards from scrimmage.
If the Steelers are correct about Wilson managing the offense with a wiser hand and delivering more efficient plays, there will be more scoring opportunities for Harris.
There is concern that Jaylen Warren and/or Cordarrelle Patterson could infringe on Harris' fantasy value. Warren is finally healthy and Patterson has looked good in limited playing time.
The worst case for Harris is that Warren regains his 2022-2023 role as a committee back, earning a significant split with touches. That didn't appear to be Arthur Smith's plan during the first three weeks of the season. Warren and Patterson were splitting the secondary role, and Harris got the vast majority of the backfield work.
Even if Warren sees more time, I doubt Harris slips below fantasy RB2 value. It makes Harris a steady value in a trade where you get him and a second starter of value in exchange for a productive/hot value. It could be worth taking the temperature of GMs with Harris to see if they are pessimistic about the Steelers' offense because of the Fields-Wilson situation and the way some in the media are defending fields.
Hold: Jaylen Warren
You're hoping Warren earns a significant split with Harris that he had last year. Or you're keeping him in case of a Harris injury.
(Monitor and then...) Buy: Cordarrelle Patterson
Patterson looked impressive before he got hurt. Arthur Smith knows how to get the most from Patterson and he likes big backs. Patterson is questionable this week as he recovers from injury. He could be a preemptive addition of value this week or next week depending on when he's declared active for game day.
Patterson could relegate Warren to a secondary role if healthy and Harris gets hurt.
Buy: George Pickens
PPR's WR36 this week, Pickens made plays with Fields under center, but there were enough opportunities Fields didn't exploit that Wilson might. Based on what I saw from Wilson in Denver, I believe "might" should be "will."
Pickens is 18th in yardage and among the top 25 in receptions at his position. He hasn't scored a touchdown this year. Wilson will change that and a streak of scores could bump Pickens from the bottom of the fantasy WR3 tier to the bottom of the WR2 tier in short order.
Buy: Calvin Austin III
Austin is getting open, and he's a breakaway threat after the catch. Pairing him with a conceptually wiser quarterback who throws with anticipation is a recipe for success.
It doesn't hurt that Wilson told the media this summer that Austin reminds him of a young-aspiring Tyler Lockett. If you have room at the end of your roster to rotate a free-agent receiver into that spot, Austin could be worth doing so during the next 1-2 weeks.
Quit: Van Jefferson
I see an outcome where Jefferson's route skills activate his fantasy value because they mesh with Wilson's skills better than Fields. Matthew Stafford got the most from Jefferson. Wilson is the only other quarterback Jefferson will have performed with who has veteran skill with seeing the field.
Wilson can't catch the ball for Jefferson, and that's his problem. Wilson has done well with journeymen-level talents like Jefferson in the past, but I'm betting against it.
Monitor: Scotty Miller
Once Jefferson has enough drops, Miller could earn his way into Wilson's good graces. Even so, He's no better than a fourth or fifth option if Austin performs as expected. Miller
Hold: Pat Freiermuth
Fields supported top-10 fantasy production for Freiermuth (TE8) thus far. Wilson has always been accurate to his tight ends on seam routes. Wilson is also better at checking the ball. Consider Freiermuth a strong candidate to maintain a steady target volume.
(Monitor...and then) Buy: Darnell Washington
Washington isn't Jimmy Graham in Graham's prime, but Wilson got production from post-prime Graham. Washington has value with seam and sail routes. Wilson throws those routes well, and Washington could be a match-up value for bye weeks. Monitor the next two games, and if you're in the market to seek such an option, Washington might pay temporary dividends. If Freiermuth gets hurt, Washington could be a true Buy.
Good luck!