The calendar has finally turned to August, which means only one thing, and that is that you get to whisper those three magical words to your spouse, significant other, best friend, or work buddy:
"Football is back."
Millions of people will join their fantasy football leagues this month to once again chase glory by way of beating their peers, and here at Footballguys, we continue to strive to help you do that by making things easier on you.
In recent years, the usage of player props, especially with wide receivers, to know where your favorite fantasy option might stand has skyrocketed, as the legalization of sports gambling has enabled people to place a true bet on whether they think a player will have a good or bad season.
We plan to take that a step further, utilizing our proprietary Footballguys projections to decide whether we believe a player will go over or under their projected total yardage this season!
This article will cover some wide receiver player props that I'm looking at. I'll include what book(s) are showing this line, our Footballguys projection, and what our recommendation is for the season.
DK Metcalf Player Prop: 1000.5 Receiving Yards -110 (DraftKings)
| YEAR | G | RSH | YD | TD | TARG | REC | YD | TD | FumL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Consensus | 16.1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 74.0 | 1088 | 7.7 | 0.5 | |
| 2024 | Freeman | 16.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 82.5 | 1203 | 8.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2024 | Henry | 16.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 78.0 | 1130 | 7.5 | 1.0 | |
| 2024 | Tremblay | 17.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 69.7 | 1044 | 7.1 | 0.7 | |
| 2024 | Wood | 16.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 69.0 | 1025 | 8.0 | 0.0 |
We'll start with a softball wide receiver player prop here. Metcalf is comfortably projected by all four of our projections specialists to go OVER this number, with the consensus coming in at 1,088 receiving yards. The Seahawks' veteran is in an interesting spot, as he saw his lowest number of targets since his rookie season in 2023. However, new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb brings an aerial attack from the University of Washington that should benefit the WR group in Seattle. Metcalf is the perfect WR1, in the mold of former Husky Rome Odunze, and should be in line for a high-profile receiving role once again.
Pick: OVER 1000.5 Receiving Yards
Tank Dell: 825.5 Receiving Yards -105 (DraftKings)
| YEAR | G | RSH | YD | TD | TARG | REC | YD | TD | FumL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Consensus | 15.4 | 14.6 | 83 | 0.5 | 67.1 | 952 | 5.5 | 0.1 | |
| 2024 | Freeman | 16.0 | 13.2 | 72 | 0.5 | 69.0 | 993 | 5.4 | 0.1 | |
| 2024 | Henry | 14.0 | 14.0 | 60 | 0.0 | 65.0 | 980 | 6.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2024 | Tremblay | 17.0 | 15.0 | 87 | 0.2 | 60.1 | 820 | 4.7 | 0.8 | |
| 2024 | Wood | 16.0 | 15.0 | 105 | 1.0 | 68.0 | 915 | 5.0 | 0.0 |
Despite our Maurile Tremblay being a bit lower than the rest of the team here, this is another overwhelming OVER. Houston dramatically upped their pass rate in neutral game scripts down the stretch last season, jumping from a 50% pass rate (29th) to 61% (7th), per Rotoworld's Kyle Dvorchak. C.J. Stroud is heading into his second season, which could see him reach new confidence levels (if that's even possible). Yes, Stefon Diggs' arrival could complicate the target share in this receiver room a bit, but I expect Dell's role as the flanker to be very secure and for his downfield targets to be healthy.
Pick: OVER 825.5 Receiving Yards
Curtis Samuel: 650.5 Receiving Yards -115 (c)
| YEAR | G | RSH | YD | TD | TARG | REC | YD | TD | FumL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Consensus | 15.8 | 15.7 | 85 | 0.8 | 58.2 | 625 | 4.1 | 0.1 | |
| 2024 | Freeman | 16.0 | 14.3 | 83 | 0.7 | 70.1 | 754 | 5.2 | 0.1 | |
| 2024 | Henry | 15.0 | 23.0 | 110 | 1.0 | 58.0 | 620 | 4.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2024 | Tremblay | 17.0 | 14.0 | 81 | 0.1 | 56.7 | 634 | 3.9 | 0.7 | |
| 2024 | Wood | 16.0 | 10.0 | 65 | 1.0 | 56.0 | 595 | 4.0 | 0.0 |
This play intrigues me. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis have left the Bills' wide receiver room, and they've been replaced by rookie second-round pick Keon Coleman and veteran Samuel. Samuel is the most reliable receiver that the Bills have, but this has all the feel of a wide receiver-by-committee feel to it this season, with tight end Dalton Kincaid most likely leading the group on a weekly basis and any one of Samuel, Coleman or Khalil Shakir being options to have a week. Understandably, three of our four experts are on the under here, and our consensus also leans that way (sorry Mr. Freeman).
Pick: UNDER 650.5 Receiving Yards
DeMario Douglas: 600.5 Receiving Yards -115 (Caesars)
| YEAR | G | RSH | YD | TD | TARG | REC | YD | TD | FumL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Consensus | 15.8 | 6.4 | 35 | 0.0 | 54.2 | 659 | 2.5 | 0.1 | |
| 2024 | Freeman | 16.0 | 4.5 | 26 | 0.2 | 51.7 | 629 | 2.1 | 0.1 | |
| 2024 | Henry | 15.0 | 9.0 | 40 | 0.0 | 55.0 | 625 | 2.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2024 | Tremblay | 17.0 | 6.0 | 32 | 0.1 | 52.7 | 666 | 3.0 | 0.6 | |
| 2024 | Wood | 16.0 | 5.0 | 35 | 0.0 | 57.0 | 725 | 3.0 | 0.0 |
Would you be shocked to discover that this is the highest-projected receiving yards total of ANY Patriots' pass-catcher in 2024? It's a group that needs some seasoning, but Douglas should be the one leading it. I actually think he'll zoom over this total and have somewhere in the 750-800 receiving yards area, as you have two first-year receivers projected to play large roles in Javon Baker and Ja'Lynn Polk. Time will tell when third-overall pick Drake Maye enters the mix this season, but until then, Jacoby Brissett is an excellent bridge quarterback who has coaxed good receiving numbers out of his pass catchers before. Douglas has the slot WR role on lock, and is having a terrific training camp so far. Our rankers feel similar to me and this is an OVER pick for us.
Pick: OVER 600.5 Receiving Yards
Calvin Ridley: 875.5 Receiving Yards -105 (DraftKings)
| YEAR | G | RSH | YD | TD | TARG | REC | YD | TD | FumL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Consensus | 15.8 | 2.7 | 14 | 0.0 | 70.2 | 925 | 5.6 | 0.3 | |
| 2024 | Freeman | 16.0 | 4.1 | 20 | 0.2 | 72.8 | 956 | 5.7 | 0.0 | |
| 2024 | Henry | 15.0 | 3.0 | 15 | 0.0 | 70.0 | 900 | 5.0 | 0.5 | |
| 2024 | Tremblay | 17.0 | 2.0 | 13 | 0.0 | 60.6 | 823 | 6.0 | 0.6 | |
| 2024 | Wood | 16.0 | 2.0 | 10 | 0.0 | 73.0 | 975 | 6.0 | 0.0 |
If you had asked me about this a week ago, I would say I'd be taking the under. There are numerous yellow (bordering on red) flags in Ridley's profile (as well as his new team) that say an under bet could be profitable here. However, in the wake of DeAndre Hopkins' injury, I have to go with our projections team and say OVER is the play here. Ridley's new contract, the lack of proven options in the receiving game besides Tyler Boyd, and the seeming dedication to Will Levis and the passing game suggest that Ridley will be the focus here as long as Hopkins is working his way back. Hopkins will reportedly not need knee surgery, but the wording of that update suggests to me that the Titans will not be rushing him back by any means.
Pick: OVER 875.5 Receiving Yards