The calendar has finally turned to August, which means only one thing, and that is that you get to whisper those three magical words to your spouse, significant other, best friend, or work buddy:
"Football is back."
Millions of people will join their fantasy football leagues this month to once again chase glory by way of beating their peers, and here at Footballguys, we continue to strive to help you do that by making things easier on you.
In recent years, the usage of player props to know where your favorite fantasy option might stand has skyrocketed, as the legalization of sports gambling has enabled people to place a true bet on whether they think a player will have a good or bad season.
We plan to take that a step further, utilizing our proprietary Footballguys projections to decide whether we believe a player will go over or under their projected total yardage this season!
This article will cover some tight end player props that I'm looking at. I'll include what book(s) are showing this line, our Footballguys projection, and what our recommendation is for the season.
Jake Ferguson, Dallas
Player Prop: 675.5 Yards -110 (DraftKings)
| Projector | Games | Receptions | ReYards | ReTDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Footballguys Consensus | 16.1 | 70.6 | 737 | 5.6 |
| Justin Freeman | 16.0 | 76.4 | 794 | 6.5 |
| Bob Henry | 16.0 | 75.0 | 780 | 6.0 |
| Maurile Tremblay | 17.0 | 67.8 | 712 | 5.5 |
| Jason Wood | 16.0 | 66.0 | 690 | 5.0 |
The projections crew is all over this one, and they have a good right to be bullish on the Cowboys' tight end. Behind CeeDee Lamb, who is Dak Prescott really throwing to in Dallas this season? Sure, Brandin Cooks is still there, but he's on the wrong side of 30, and Ferguson had a solid season last year. With Tony Pollard gone and a backfield split between Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle looming, the Cowboys may be throwing more than ever in 2024.
Pick: OVER 675.5 Yards
Jake Ferguson is one of 12 TEs to hit the following thresholds over the past 10 seasons:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 14, 2024
- 300+ routes run before the age of 25
- Target per route run rate of 25%
Pictured here (per @TruMediaSports) is the career per-route data for each tight end before their age-25 season. pic.twitter.com/MZjy8szgOh
Mark Andrews, Baltimore
Player Prop: 725.5 Yards -115 (Caesars)
| Projector | Games | Receptions | ReYards | ReTDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Footballguys Consensus | 15.4 | 67.2 | 798 | 7.3 |
| Justin Freeman | 16.0 | 63.9 | 765 | 6.3 |
| Bob Henry | 14.0 | 62.0 | 750 | 8.0 |
| Maurile Tremblay | 17.0 | 71.0 | 840 | 7.1 |
| Jason Wood | 16.0 | 72.0 | 840 | 7.0 |
There's a pretty wide dispersion here in this prop. DraftKings has Andrews all the way up at 800.5 receiving yards, which would trigger an under based on our projections (especially Justin's and Bob's). However, Caesars having this at 725.5 is an over play, and I do really like the over, too. This is basically a play on Andrews staying healthy most of the season because outside of his rookie season, Andrews has surpassed this number each time he's played at least 15 games. Andrews is still the main receiving option that the Ravens have on the offense, and they didn't really change things up much this offseason in the WR room. The veteran should pass this with ease.
Pick: OVER 725.5 Yards
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta
Player Prop: 750.5 Yards -110 (DraftKings)
| Projector | Games | Receptions | ReYards | ReTDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Footballguys Consensus | 16.1 | 68.8 | 855 | 5.2 |
| Justin Freeman | 16.0 | 64.0 | 825 | 3.7 |
| Bob Henry | 16.0 | 73.0 | 930 | 6.0 |
| Maurile Tremblay | 17.0 | 58.4 | 687 | 5.3 |
| Jason Wood | 16.0 | 70.0 | 850 | 5.0 |
Our Footballguys team is especially bullish on Pitts, as we love Kirk Cousins' fit in Atlanta. Pitts should be looked at as a focal point of the Falcons' offense, and his struggles of the past two seasons should go away quickly as he gets the best quarterback he's had in his career throwing the ball his way. Pitts had an obscene NFL-highest 479 unrealized air yards in 2023 due to one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL throwing to him in Desmond Ridder. That should all change under Cousins, who ranked third last season with a 74.7 True Completion Percentage.
Pick: OVER 750.5 Yards
