As we approach the 2024 season, many fantasy managers are already deep into their draft research. If you are so inclined, you could also use that knowledge to place some prop bets (Responsibly, of course). Our Full Player Projections will make those picks a lot easier!
RELATED: See Wide Receiver Props here >>>
Using this tool, I compared some quarterback prop lines on various sites to our projections and found a few who could likely beat their lines by a significant amount. I focused my research on passing yards and stuck with betting the Over. Touchdowns are notoriously hard to predict, and I don't like betting against things happening. I prefer to root for them to happen.
On top of the best payout for each of these props, I also listed a Safer Bet. The required total is lower with these bets, but the payout drops slightly. With that said, here are my favorite season-long quarterback props for the 2024 season.
The Top 5 Quarterback Prop Bets
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia
Line: 3600.5 Passing Yards (+110 on DraftKings)
2024 Footballguys Projections
| Projector | Games | Comps | Atts | PaYards | PaTDs | INTs | Rushes | RuYards | RuTDs | FumLost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Footballguys Consensus | 16.2 | 337.3 | 511.9 | 4032 | 23.9 | 12.1 | 133.7 | 576 | 10.6 | 3.9 |
| Justin Freeman | 17.0 | 280.7 | 388.0 | 4473 | 27.0 | 8.8 | 140.8 | 621 | 9.3 | 5.3 |
| Bob Henry | 16.0 | 346.0 | 535.0 | 3980 | 23.5 | 12.0 | 135.0 | 580 | 12.0 | 3.0 |
| Maurile Tremblay | 16.2 | 353.0 | 543.0 | 3910 | 21.3 | 15.9 | 120.0 | 471 | 9.9 | 1.9 |
| Jason Wood | 16.0 | 345.0 | 526.0 | 3955 | 24.0 | 12.0 | 135.0 | 595 | 10.0 | 5.0 |
We start with a positive money bet that also happens to feel pretty safe. Our projectors have Hurts beating this total by over 400 yards. That means Hurts could miss one or two games and still cross the 3600-yard mark. You'll notice this type of cushion in every bet I've chosen for this article. In 2022, Hurts only played 15 games but threw for 3701 yards. Last season, Hurts played every game and hit 3858 yards. With new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, the Eagles will likely throw the ball even more in 2024. Over the last two seasons, Moore's offenses have averaged more than 4000 passing yards. A healthy Hurts should hit this number by Week 16.
Pick: OVER 3600.5 Passing Yards
Safer Bet: Over 3525.5 Passing Yards (-112 on FanDuel)
Jayden Daniels, Washington
Line: 3105.5 Passing Yards (+110 on DraftKings)
2024 Footballguys Projections
| Projector | Games | Comps | Atts | PaYards | PaTDs | INTs | Rushes | RuYards | RuTDs | FumLost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Footballguys Consensus | 15.4 | 329.4 | 516.6 | 3766 | 20.4 | 14.0 | 107.1 | 559 | 4.8 | 4.5 |
| Justin Freeman | 17.0 | 290.4 | 385.1 | 4205 | 21.3 | 9.6 | 129.0 | 716 | 6.0 | 5.1 |
| Bob Henry | 15.0 | 330.0 | 525.0 | 3720 | 21.0 | 15.0 | 110.0 | 610 | 5.0 | 4.0 |
| Maurile Tremblay | 15.9 | 372.0 | 611.0 | 4164 | 23.0 | 19.5 | 77.0 | 293 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| Jason Wood | 15.0 | 335.0 | 535.0 | 3565 | 19.0 | 13.0 | 110.0 | 565 | 5.0 | 6.0 |
While the projected cushion on this bet is fantastic at 675 yards, there is a bit more risk in betting on rookies. However, we do know a little about the offense Daniels will run. Kliff Kingsbury was the coach of the Cardinals from 2019-2022. During that time, his quarterback was Kyler Murray, an athletic quarterback who could both run and throw. That sounds a lot like Daniels, who threw for 3812 yards last season in college while adding another 1134 on the ground. Kingsbury's Cardinals averaged just over 4000 passing yards during his four seasons. With weapons like Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Luke McCaffrey, Zach Ertz, Ben Sinnott, and Austin Ekeler, there is no reason to think Daniels can't throw for 182 yards per game if he plays the whole season. The injury risk is a factor here, as Daniels is only 185 pounds, and the Commanders gave up the second-most sacks in the NFL last season. However, Kingsbury's teams averaged about 245 passing yards per game, meaning Daniels could beat this total in just 13 games.
Pick: OVER 3105.5 Passing Yards
Safer Bet: Over 3025.5 Passing Yards (-112 on FanDuel)
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami
Line: 4100.5 Passing Yards (Even Money on DraftKings)
2024 Footballguys Projections
| Projector | Games | Comps | Atts | PaYards | PaTDs | INTs | Rushes | RuYards | RuTDs | FumLost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Footballguys Consensus | 15.8 | 364.0 | 535.1 | 4526 | 27.6 | 12.7 | 32.3 | 82 | 1.1 | 3.5 |
| Justin Freeman | 17.0 | 289.6 | 405.9 | 4808 | 29.3 | 9.1 | 31.4 | 81 | 1.7 | 4.4 |
| Bob Henry | 16.0 | 381.0 | 560.0 | 4620 | 29.0 | 13.0 | 30.0 | 70 | 1.0 | 2.5 |
| Maurile Tremblay | 16.2 | 365.0 | 556.0 | 4477 | 23.4 | 14.9 | 32.0 | 64 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Jason Wood | 15.0 | 374.0 | 550.0 | 4310 | 27.0 | 13.0 | 35.0 | 100 | 1.0 | 5.0 |
Tagovailoa led the NFL in passing last year with 4624 yards. He put up those numbers while Miami was ranked 19th in passing attempts. This team prefers to run the ball, but the passing yardage comes in big chunks when you have Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and the fastest running backs group in the league. The Dolphins averaged 11.4 yards per completion last season, the third-best in the NFL. In 2022, they led the league with 12.2 yards. Some might be concerned with injury, but Tagovailoa played every game in 2023 and seems to have turned a page on his injury history. For a guy who averaged 272 yards per game last year, a goal of 241 seems reasonable for a double-your-money bet.
Pick: OVER 4100.5 Passing Yards
Safer Bet: Over 4000.5 Passing Yards (-105 on ESPNBet)
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati
Line: 4000.5 Passing Yards (-105 on on DraftKings)
2024 Footballguys Projections
| Projector | Games | Comps | Atts | PaYards | PaTDs | INTs | Rushes | RuYards | RuTDs | FumLost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Footballguys Consensus | 16.2 | 384.5 | 573.0 | 4498 | 31.0 | 12.1 | 55.8 | 183 | 2.0 | 2.6 |
| Justin Freeman | 17.0 | 315.2 | 430.5 | 4965 | 34.0 | 8.6 | 55.0 | 182 | 2.4 | 4.9 |
| Bob Henry | 16.0 | 400.0 | 597.0 | 4520 | 31.5 | 12.0 | 58.0 | 200 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Maurile Tremblay | 16.1 | 382.0 | 601.0 | 4226 | 29.5 | 15.9 | 53.0 | 150 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Jason Wood | 16.0 | 398.0 | 595.0 | 4400 | 30.0 | 12.0 | 55.0 | 180 | 2.0 | 4.0 |
This bet is the first where injury plays a real factor. In four seasons, Burrow has only played 16 games twice. In those two seasons, he averaged 4543 yards, clearing this betting mark by over 500 yards. He just needs to stay healthy, and all reports are that he is back to 100% for the start of camp. Burrow averages 328 passing yards per game for his career, so we could see him hit 4000 yards in just 13 games. There is the added concern that Ja'Marr Chase is currently not practicing due to a contract dispute, but most believe that will not continue into the season, and the team still has Tee Higgins. All in all, you're betting on Burrow's talent here and hoping his offensive line keeps him upright for at least 14 games.
Pick: OVER 4000.5 Passing Yards
Safer Bet: Over 3945.5 Passing Yards (-120 on BetMGM)
C.J. Stroud, Houston
Line: 4175.5 Passing Yards (-105 on BetMGM)
2024 Footballguys Projections
| Projector | Games | Comps | Atts | PaYards | PaTDs | INTs | Rushes | RuYards | RuTDs | FumLost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Footballguys Consensus | 15.9 | 359.4 | 551.5 | 4545 | 27.6 | 9.8 | 46.3 | 195 | 2.9 | 3.0 |
| Justin Freeman | 17.0 | 312.8 | 425.5 | 5132 | 30.7 | 6.5 | 57.1 | 242 | 2.4 | 4.8 |
| Bob Henry | 16.0 | 367.0 | 575.0 | 4600 | 26.0 | 8.0 | 43.0 | 185 | 3.0 | 2.0 |
| Maurile Tremblay | 16.5 | 365.0 | 585.0 | 4464 | 26.9 | 14.1 | 46.0 | 183 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| Jason Wood | 15.0 | 365.0 | 560.0 | 4245 | 28.0 | 11.0 | 45.0 | 190 | 3.0 | 4.0 |
We end on a bet that feels like a slam dunk but also carries the worst odds of the five. Technically, it's tied with Burrow, but our projectors have Burrow beating his total by 50 more yards. Stroud threw for 4108 yards as a rookie, but he also missed two games. Heading into this second season, we should see improvement to his 273 yards per game. This improvement seems inevitable when you factor in the addition of Stefon Diggs. Last year, Houston's best receiver, Nico Collins, only played 15 games, and their number-two, Tank Dell, missed six games. Both are now healthy, and you've added a third to the mix in Diggs, who averages over 1100 yards per season. With the talent around him, Stroud will beat this total even if he missed two games again in 2024.
Pick: OVER 4175.5 Passing Yards
Safer Bet: Over 4050.5 Passing Yards (-135 on ESPNBet)
As we approach the 2024 season, these quarterback prop bets present exciting opportunities for fantasy managers and sports bettors. You can make informed betting decisions by leveraging our player projections and carefully considering the potential for each quarterback to surpass their respective passing yardage totals. Remember to bet responsibly, and good luck!
Be sure to follow Ryan Weisse and Footballguys on X to stay up-to-date on fantasy football news this summer.
