A bust is a player who can lead you to a losing season. And the earlier you have to pick a bust, the more damage he can do to your team.
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To be clear, we define busts as players who we think will perform worse than most expect and be overvalued at their average draft position.
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Our staff recently gathered to offer up their busts for this season. Here they are.
Running Back Busts from Jason Wood
De'Von Achane, Miami
Achane is one of the most explosive players in the league, and we know he can put up RB1 weeks because he did it as a rookie. But we, as a staff, have him ranked well below his ADP and see him as an RB2 this year, for good reason. His durability, the depth at the position, including a new rookie (Wright) who's a three-down talent, and the absurdity of how much Achane's efficiency was an all-time historical outlier are all reasons to ratchet back expectations.
Aaron Jones, Minnesota
Betting on aging veteran running backs on news teams is risky business, particularly when the player in question is already in decline and can't stay healthy. Given the changeover at quarterback, the Vikings' offense is not guaranteed to be effective, and Jones could end up in bad game scripts on top of his age curve decline. He's an easy fade in the Top 20.
Zack Moss, Cincinnati
Drafting Moss as your RB2 is a recipe for mediocrity. He's a journeyman who strung together a solid four-game stretch for the Colts last year, but every other segment of his career, including a latter stretch for those same Colts late in the season, has been far less compelling. Chase Brown stands as good a chance, if not better, to be the Bengals' top running back.
Zamir White, Las Vegas
The Raiders offense is likely to be one of the worst in the NFL, and White isn't the kind of transcendent talent who can deliver strong fantasy value regardless of game script or surrounding talent.
Running Back Busts from Jeff Haseley
Raheem Mostert, Miami
Raheem Mostert had a career season in 2023, scoring an impressive 21 touchdowns and achieving his first 1,000-yard rushing season in his nine-year career. At 32, he faces competition in the Dolphins' backfield from De'Von Achane and Jaylen Wright. The uncertain situation raises questions about the distribution of carries. Given Mostert's age and competition, it's uncertain how many carries he'll get and whether he can maintain his high level of performance. He is not without value, but it seems that Mostert might be best drafted as an RB3 or lower with tempered expectations.
Josh Jacobs, Green Bay
After a high-volume, successful 2022 season, Jacobs dropped out of the top 20 in 2023 for the first time in his five-year career, which also happened to be a contract year for him. At age 26, he is still considered in the range for a productive running back, which was likely a factor in Green Bay's pursuit and ultimate signing this offseason. His decline in 2023 leaves the door open for uncertainty. Green Bay also drafted a rookie running back in the third round, MarShawn Lloyd. If Jacobs cannot return to a top-20 level, the Packers could have a short leash resulting in a lesser role with the team.
Aaron Jones, Minnesota
There are two main concerns surrounding Aaron Jones. The success of the Vikings offense is unknown at this time, mostly due to questions at quarterback. How well will Minnesota drive the ball down the field and generate scoring opportunities? If that answer is less than desirable, it likely will result in less production for Jones. Number two, Jones will turn 30 this season, and injuries are starting to pile up on him. He is joining a new team with a new offense. There is no guarantee how he will be used or how effective he will be in the new offense. The questions are too concerning to consider him anything more than a low-end RB2 or RB3.