The Dallas Cowboys are turning to QB Cooper Rush for several weeks. What can we expect from the Cowboys' skill talent?
Welcome to Week 10 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- The Cowboys Without Prescott (see below)
- Midseason Grab Bag
- Would You Rather, Dynasty Edition
- Dump, Bench, and Start
Let's roll.
The Cowboys without Dak Prescott
Matt Waldman: Dak Prescott is expected out for multiple weeks, so the Cowboys likely turn to Cooper Rush. What can we expect from these three players?
- WR4 CeeDee Lamb
- TE14 Jake Ferguson
- RB31 Rico Dowdle
Do any remain fantasy values? Is there a chance one increases their value? List the role/value each has on a fantasy squad.
Andy Hicks: Rico Dowdle may increase in value because of the circumstances around him. Ezekiel Elliott got suspended and is barely averaging three yards a carry. Dalvin Cook is a shell of his former self as well. Dowdle hasn’t had a huge workload but looks capable of making an impact and can also work as a receiver. I would be comfortable assigning him as an RB2, ahead of his current ranking.
Jake Ferguson is just a guy, but he is the clear starter. His highly drafted teammate, Luke Schoonmaker, has been invisible since his Week Two six-catch performance. Will Cooper Rush see him in the red zone? If the Cowboys can move the ball. Ferguson hasn’t scored a touchdown in almost a calendar year. His value remains steady. Bottom end TE1/TE2
CeeDee Lamb is the one who should take a hit in value. Apart from gritting it out with an AC issue, Lamb doesn’t have a reliable target opposite him to help out. Defenses can easily double or triple-team him into a top WR2, well below the value expected with his draft slot. Cooper Rush isn’t the passer that Dak Prescott is so don’t expect too many big plays.
Jason Wood: It's unlikely any Cowboys players will return the value we anticipated on draft day with Dak Prescott potentially out for an extended period. Cowboys fans might point to Cooper Rush’s long tenure with the team and his 5-1 record as a starter, but there’s no question that Prescott is a far superior passer. Rush’s yards per attempt (6.5) and completion rate (60%) fall well short of Prescott’s career marks of 7.6 yards per attempt and 67% completion rate.
While I suspect the Cowboys’ offense as a whole may become fantasy-irrelevant, there is one player who could see an increase in value: Rico Dowdle. The hope here is that Dowdle maintains his current role as the team’s primary ball carrier and sees a significant increase in receptions, as Rush could rely on him as a safety valve.
At best, Lamb may be a low-end WR2, but more realistically, he’ll be a reliable WR3 or Flex option. Ferguson will likely become a touchdown-dependent tight end, joining a large group of similar players who fluctuate between TE10 and TE20 weekly.
Dowdle has the widest range of outcomes. If the offense struggles to sustain drives, he may be unstartable. However, if he sees a notable increase in targets, he could become a viable RB2 in PPR formats.
Jeff Bell: I am not going to say CeeDee Lamb will not have fantasy value. He was fine when Rush took over for five games at the beginning of 2022.
Lamb averaged 6.2 receptions and 76 yards while scoring twice, which is good for WR9 in that window. Given his ADP, WR9 is not what fantasy players expected. Lamb is dealing with his shoulder issue, but he is undoubtedly still starting in fantasy lines weekly if the injury clears.
Jake Ferguson has not been what people expected. The struggles of Prescott, the backfield, and the organizational disorganization have provided cover.
Ferguson carried a TE9 ADP and stands at TE13 in per-game scoring. In most seasons, the difference between TE9 and TE13 is negligible, but in 2024, TE9 still gives the upside of Kyle Pitts or David Njoku.
It's a challenging notion to see Ferguson reaching that tier as of now. Some players score very close to him and they now have higher weekly ceilings.
If Week 9 Rico Dowdle is what we are getting, I am in despite missing Prescott. Dowdle handled 90% of the opportunities and looked good doing so. That type of workload, combined with a passing game that may emphasize running back pass-game involvement, put him firmly in the RB2 conversation.
Dowdle has the best chance to increase value, but it has much less to do with Rush and more with recent usage trends. Dowdle is a strong pass catcher and will be needed if Lamb misses time.
I still think Lamb will be a WR1. Ferguson is likely a bye-week flex in deep leagues where there is TE premium scoring. Dowdle is...let's say he's "RB2.5," rounding down to RB3 due to the shift toward bell cow usage across the league this year.
Sam Wagman: According to RotoViz's Game Splits tool, Lamb has averaged 13.75 fantasy points in games without Prescott as compared to 18.91 points with him. Across the board, his stats predictably take a dip, but he is vital to this offense and does enough work getting yards after the catch, that I believe he will stay relevant as a WR2, short-term.
I am not sure that either Dowdle or Ferguson can retain relevance in this spot, as Rush will surely fixate on Lamb. Ferguson would be my guess as the player most likely to increase his value, given the predicted increase in attention paid to Lamb by defenses, but it will have to be a wait-and-see situation for fantasy GMs.
Consider Dowdle a bye-week option, Ferguson a flex you hope earns a touchdown for most of his points, and Lamb a WR2.
Justin Howe: Lamb doesn’t lose much value, if any. He's still easily a WR1. He’ll remain the focal point more often than not, and I don’t foresee much of a drop-off in terms of opportunity.
Consider that Prescott was 20th in completed air yardage rate – down from 4th last year and 6th in 2022. Simply put, this has been a dink-and-dunk offense all season, and I don’t anticipate Rush bringing much of a change.
He’ll continue to pepper Lamb with targets whenever possible, giving a solid volume base and no less of a ceiling than he had a week ago.
Ferguson looks about the same, too. He’s been a good-not-great TE1 thus far, sitting near the top of the league’s tight ends in most target and yardage rates. In today’s game, volume is the only thing we can even try to project for tight ends, and I don’t think much changes here. Consider him still a low-end TE1.
Dowdle interests me a bit more now. He’s been low-volume all year, and Ezekiel Elliott should be active again going forward. That said, it looks like the screen game will be a huge part of Rush’s attack and it could make Dowdle’s frustrating 8-carry, 35-yard days into something useful. He'll be better than a flex, but he’s not my RB2.
Gary Davenport: It doesn’t help that Lamb is also banged up. But provided that he’s out there, he should still see a heavy target share. Those targets should keep Lamb on the fringes of WR1 territory, but his value takes a hit.
Ferguson’s fantasy value probably stays right about where it is—low-end TE1 territory. Rush is going to need an underneath target—a safety valve of sorts. The problem with Ferguson will be the same as it’s been all year long—consistency.
Dowdle had a big Week 9—107 total yards and a touchdown. But the Cowboys were already struggling mightily to run the ball. Until Cooper Rush shows opponents he can make them pay through the air, Dowdle is going to see loaded fronts—and struggle to be more than a so-so fantasy flex option.
Waldman: Thanks for reading. Check out the links below for all of this week's roundtable topics:
- The Cowboys Without Prescott
- Midseason Grab Bag
- Would You Rather, Dynasty Edition
- Dump, Bench, and Start
Good luck!