Bo Nix, Ladd McConkey, and Tank Bigsby were three players on a hot streak in October. Will it continue?
Welcome to Week 9 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Week 9 Desperation Plays
- Good Things Ahead or Just One Good Week?
- 5 Players Being Written Off Too Soon
- Considering Nix, McConkey, and Bigsby (see below)
Let's roll.
Bo Nix, Ladd McConkey, and Tank Bigsby
Matt Waldman: Consider these three players.
- Bo Nix: QB9 this year, QB3 this month.
- Ladd McConkey: WR20 this year, WR16 this month.
- Tank Bigsby: RB32 this year, RB8 this month.
Based on the current ranking for the year, which player of the three has the best chance for his production to continue to rise? Which is most likely to remain the same. Which is most likely to drop?
Jeff Haseley: Bo Nix may have just turned the corner with his impressive performance against Carolina in Week 8, in which he passed for 284 yards and 3 touchdowns. He gets another favorable matchup in Week 9 at Baltimore. The Ravens have allowed 13 touchdown passes and three 300-yard efforts in the last four games!
Ladd McConkey may be settling into the leading role with the Chargers. He is dominating targets as the primary receiving threat on a run-heavy offense. I don't see much change in terms of usage.
What you see is what you're going to get with Tank Bigsby: He'll be productive against defenses that don't stop the run well or when the contest is close enough to continue running the ball. He's about to face teams that create unfavorable game scripts for him to thrive.
Corey Spala: Ladd McConkey has the best chance for his production to rise. He has continued to impress through eight games in his rookie season, with route running and the ability to create after the catch. In addition, Justin Herbert is catching his groove as a passer. He has been the highest-graded player over the last two weeks. Combining McConkey’s development and Herbert’s play, this is a great equation for greater success for McConkey.
Bo Nix has the best chance to retain similar production. He has developed seemingly over the season, accounting for 10 touchdowns and one turnover over the last six games. His game-managing ability, paired with Sean Payton’s coaching, has built a strong connection. The bonus of the rushing upside counters any weekly passing deficit.
Tank Bigsby has the best chance to drop in production. Bigsby may certainly be the better running back compared to Travis Etienne Jr. The anticipated return of Etienne and losing Christian Kirk for the year are factors toward Bigsby’s reduction. Additionally, Jacksonville faces a tough three-week stretch against Philadelphia, Detroit, and Minnesota, teams stout against the run and running back fantasy production.
Joseph Haggan: Tank Bigsby is on the rise. Travis Eteinne Jr. is still banged up. Even when healthy, Etienne was incredibly inefficient, and Bigsby was starting to eat into his carries. Etienne has only eclipsed the 12-carry mark twice this season and has yet to eclipse 70 rushing yards.
Bigsby has had 12 or more carries four times this season and exceeded 70 rushing yards in five games. He also has a robust 5.8 yards per carry on 85 carries. Bigsby looks to have solidified himself as the early down back even when Etienne is fully healthy, giving him plenty of stand-alone value.
Ladd McConkey likely drops out of the top 20. His ranking is boosted by a healthy 111 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns in Week 8. Unfortunately, McConkey has not been this dominant the entire season, not even close.
McConkey has seen at least six targets in all but one game this season, though he has only eclipsed the 60-yard mark twice. Quentin Johnston is close to returning and has delivered three touchdowns this year. Will Dissly has emerged as one of Justin Herbert's safety blankets. He caught 18 targets for 13 receptions and 122 yards during the past two weeks. McConkey is very talented, but he has not yet demanded to be the focal point of the offense as a rookie.
Bo Nix is the best candidate to stay the same. He is one of the hottest quarterbacks in the NFL right now and has an offensive-minded coach in Sean Payton. Unlike Nix, there are plenty of youthful quarterbacks currently benched, such as Justin Fields and Anthony Richardson. With Nix playing at a high level, the competition behind him playing so little or poorly, and the offensive mind of Coach Payton are all reasons Nix could and should stay at QB9.
Sean Settle: Ladd McConkey has the best chance to see his production rise. He has established himself as the first read in this offense with Quentin Johnston not playing well, and Justin Herbert continues to get healthy and hit his stride. The run-heavy approach of this offense should continue to open things up in the secondary as teams stack the box against J.K. Dobbins. We have seen rookie receivers excel in the past and McConkey is in a great spot to do the same.
Bo Nix is in the best spot to remain consistent. He has developed into a top-10 quarterback over the past 6 weeks but does not have the same upside to move up the list and has weather to contend with in Denver toward the end of the season. We have seen his inability to get the ball to his best players (Courtland Sutton 0 catches 2 weeks ago), but Nix’s rushing upside is what will keep him in the same ranking area.
Tank Bigsby is the most likely to drop due to his situation. Travis Etienne Jr. will return and is slated to return to lead back duties. The season-ending injury to Christian Kirk will also play a role in the reduction of his production. Throw in a tough trio of run defenses in the coming weeks with Detroit, Philadelphia, and Minnesota and we should expect a steep decline in overall production for Bigsby.
Ryan Weisse: In my honest opinion, I think they'll all stay the same, but that's not the question, and I have to keep Matt happy!
Waldman: I like that you pointed that out. I probably should have framed the question that way, but I like that you must make some decisions to separate the three.
Weisse: We should see Tank Bigsby continue to rise, even with the return of Travis Etienne Jr. The Jaguars are struggling with receiver depth and may choose to use Etienne as more of a pass catcher, meaning Bigsby will remain the primary running back and keep on his current trajectory. He might not stay in the Top 10, but a Top 20 run is possible, and that will improve his overall ranking for the year.
The most likely to stay the same is Bo Nix. He has turned it on lately. As he gets more comfortable, we should see fewer bad games. His rushing ability makes him an exciting top-10 play each week at quarterback.
The reason I don't believe he'll move is purely the competition of his peer group. The quarterbacks ranked directly ahead of him -- Brock Purdy and Kyler Murray -- aren't likely to take a step back, and it seems even less likely he'll supplant one of the top 5 guys. Nix is a top-10 quarterback, and fantasy managers should be happy with that ranking.
That leaves Ladd McConkey as my faller. It's nothing against the rookie; I just worry that passing volume could swing away from him on a team that would prefer to run the ball, and the competition at wide receiver is fierce. Looking behind McConkey at WR20, there are 10 guys I could see passing him up. McConkey is a safe WR3/Flex option, but don't be surprised if he finishes the year outside the Top 30.
Matt Montgomery: Tank Bigsby has the best chance to improve his ranking for the rest of the season. We are seeing in real-time Travis Etienne Jr. lose opportunities to Bigsby. Before the injury, Etienne played fewer snaps than Bigsby and now with the extended opportunity, Bigsby looks like a legitimate threat to Etienne’s rest-of-season value. Due to this, we will see Bigsby finish at a higher rank than RB32.
Ladd McConkey has the best opportunity to have his rank fall and it isn’t due to his talent level, but more the overall talent of the position he plays. WR20 is a great rookie season, especially for a team like the Chargers who prioritize a power game over the finesse passing attack. While McConkey is a good player and should remain that way, I could see this offense fall off a bit and hurt his value, pushing him out of the top 20.
Bo Nix is the perfect candidate to remain around the same ranking because the variance we see from the Broncos is consistent week to week. He is a rookie, so there will be highs and lows in his game, but a top-ten QB finish for Sean Payton’s offense isn’t out of the realm of possibilities. He tends to make lemonade out of lemons, and Bo Nix is far from a lemon!
Waldman: Thanks for reading. Check out the links below for all of this week's roundtable topics:
- Week 9 Desperation Plays
- Good Things Ahead or Just One Good Week?
- 5 Players Being Written Off Too Soon
- Considering Nix, McConkey, and Bigsby
Good luck!