The good news: Tua Tagovailoa could return to the Dolphins' lineup in Week 8. The bad news: There are at least three more weeks of reserve quarterback play that will bring the most conservative game plans from Mike McDaniel. What do we do with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle?
Welcome to Week 5 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
Let's roll.
Matt Waldman: Tua Tagovailoa expects to return in Week 8. Tyler Huntley doesn't know the offense well enough for Mike McDaniel to let him rip it downfield. Skyler Thompson may be another week or two away from starting, and McDaniel was cautious with him.
Answer the following:
- Give a scenario where you might trade either player or explain why that's not an option.
- Do you bench them without any condition until Tagovailoa returns?
- In terms of lineup value (WR1, WR2, WR3, WR4, etc), what do you consider each player while Tagovailoa is out?
What do you have for us?
Dan Hindery: As long as my season is not slipping away and I remain in the playoff hunt, I would not trade either right now. Their perceived value is too low, and their potential value during the all-important fantasy football playoff weeks outweighs the short-term pain you feel from putting them in your lineup for the next few weeks.
The one scenario where I would consider trading a player like Hill is if I was sitting at 0-4 or 1-3 with a tough matchup on deck. The playoff upside does not matter if you are already way back in the standings.
I’m starting Tyreek Hill regardless of who his quarterback is unless my roster is stacked. Early Week 5 Footballguys consensus projections rank Hill as the WR22, which feels right.
Mike McDaniel will do everything possible to get the ball into Hill’s hands—not only because he’s their best offensive weapon but also to avoid the risk of Hill becoming a distraction if he doesn't get enough touches. On the other hand, Waddle is much easier to bench.
He hasn’t scored more than 8.5 fantasy points in a game since Tagovailoa's injury. Tyreek Hill is a low-end WR2, and Jaylen Waddle is a WR4.
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Ryan Weisse: There is almost no value in trading Hill right now. You spent an early first-round pick on him, and that is not close to what you are getting back. The only way I'm moving him is if I'm 1-3 or 0-4, and I'm getting two or three pieces that I can start every week. If the move doesn't bring you back to playoff contention, why sell low and help another team win a championship?
On the other hand, I would move Waddle pretty easily. Last season, we saw that Hill capped Waddle's upside, so I view him as a fringe WR3 in the best scenario. If I can get a wide receiver with a higher upside like Rashid Shaheed or a decent RB3 like Devin Singletary based on the value of Waddle's name, I will make that move immediately.
Jaylen Waddle will not see my Flex spot until Tagovailoa is back, and even then, I'll probably wait two weeks. He is barely a top-50 receiver this season and has next to no upside. With guys like Dontayvion Wicks, Wan'Dale Robinson, and Tre Tucker on waivers in most leagues, I can find a receiver with top-10 potential in free agency. Waddle cannot match that as it stands.
Tyreek Hill is an upside WR3/Flex option right now. He's not an auto-bench, but you're not expecting WR1 production. However, with his speed, he could break an 80-yard touchdown with even the worst quarterback play.
One catch like that is worth 15 fantasy points, and he's paid off as my Flex play for the week. I won't bench him regardless of quarterback or opponent, but I know he is unlikely to win me a fantasy matchup until Tagovailoa is back. Waddle is a WR6 with no upside. Unless I am in a three-wide receiver, three-flex, full-PPR league, he is not seeing my lineup.
Justin Howe: I see no value anywhere in trading either player. Their value is as low as ever, while Tagovailoa is uncertain, so I’d only get back 30-40 cents on the dollar. It’s unlikely I’m that desperate in Week 5, and if I am, then the modest return won’t help much.
The only prayer I’d have to recoup value is for Tagovailoa to bounce back quickly and Hill/Waddle to meet their regular preseason expectations. Which, by the way, remains squarely on the table.
I’m only benching either on a week in which injuries and/or byes have decimated me. The Dolphins don’t just stop throwing when Tagovailoa goes down; rather, the game script tends to force them into volume.
Besides, both Hill and Waddle are explosive enough to bring home-run value without catching 8-10 well-placed balls. I can’t imagine benching either for a WR4 type in the Rashid Shaheed/Ladd McConkey vein.
Corey Spala: I would consider benching either of the two wide receivers. This is contingent on a favorable matchup for a bench wide receiver. Hill and Waddle have at least five targets in each of the last two games. They offer the ability to create a big play on any touch they receive. If you have a favorable bench option, it makes it easier to start them over Miami's wide receivers.
I would consider them WR4s, but their talent gives me optimism about nominating them as WR3s. Hill (WR57, WR51) and Waddle (WR60, WR57) have finished as WR5s over the last two weeks; their big play ability leaves room to finish higher. Golly, maybe I would highly consider benching them until Tua Tagovailoa returns.
Joseph Haggan: I would not trade Tyreek Hill. His current value is too low without a competent quarterback, and he does not have the youth to boost his value. He has been a top-five fantasy wide receiver for virtually his entire career. I am holding Hill and waiting for Tua to return.
I would consider trading Waddle. Waddle is an incredibly talented player and could be a true WR1 on another team, but unfortunately, he has to play behind Hill. Unlike Hill, though, Waddle has youth on his side, which should help keep his value higher. I would trade Waddle for a more impactful player, potentially older, but one that could help push my team across the hump.
I am 100% considering benching both Waddle and Hill until I see some semblance of quarterback play from the Dolphins' backups. Hill and Waddle combined for just 10 targets in Week 4. It would be best if you won these early games so you are not scrambling at the end of the year to push for the playoffs.
With Tua out, I consider both Hill and Waddle a WR3. Waddle is more of a possession receiver and received more targets from the backups. The offense, in general, seems too nervous to push the ball downfield with Huntley or Skylar Thompson. Still, they are NFL quarterbacks, and Hill has the speed and ability to get open deep. Sometimes, all he needs is that one deep touchdown to have a strong week.
Waldman: Thanks for reading. Check out the links below for all of this week's roundtable topics:
Good luck!
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