Cade Otton, Darnell Washington, Ja'Tavion Sanders, and Noah Gray earned upticks in production last week. Who is a for-real fantasy threat? Who is fool's gold?
Welcome to Week 8 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Fantasy True or False
- Real or Fool's Gold, TE Edition (see below)
- Who Benefits From Recent Lineup Changes
- QBs Suffering Due to Other Injuries
Let's roll.
For Real-Fool's Gold, TE Edition
Matt Waldman: Consider the list of Week 7 producers at tight end.
Which options have for-real fantasy value? Which are fool's gold?
Jeff Haseley: In the last five games, with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin being involved, Otton has a team target share of 25%, 19%, 17%, 17%, and 22%. He will be a heavily targeted option for Mayfield with all of the injuries on offense.
Washington's highest target game this year was four targets in last week's game. Before that, two targets were his high. Russell Wilson may unlock him as an option in the offense, but he is unlikely to see much action, especially with Pat Freiermuth still part of the picture.
Sanders is starting to emerge in Carolina's receiving corps, with 5+ targets in each of the last three games. The passing game will feed through Diontae Johnson, Adam Thielen (eligible to return in Week 8), and Xavier Legette. Sanders, while improved, will be more of a complementary piece than a primary target.
I don't see a scenario where Gray is a consistent option in the Chiefs passing game as long as Travis Kelce is on the field. He is good enough to produce good games here and there, but consistency with how Kansas City flows their offense, is the main detractor from Gray being fantasy-relevant.
Phil Alexander: Cade Otton is for real. While I've never been much of a believer in Otton as a talent, the pending target consolidation in Tampa Bay is undeniable. In this year's desolate tight-end landscape, he has already cleared the low bar of performing as a top-10 player. Weekly top-5 finishes are not out of the question with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin out of the lineup.
Darnell Washington is fool's gold. He ran nine routes in Week 7 and belongs nowhere near your fantasy lineup.
Ja'Tavion Sanders is fool's gold, though it took more than one streak test to be sure. The rookie is a solid dynasty asset and has the potential for a strong second half, but his two useful games have come with Tommy Tremble playing zero snaps. Sanders, Tremble, and Ian Thomas have appeared in zero games together this season, so we have no idea what the playing time rotation looks like once Carolina has a healthy tight end room.
Noah Gray is fool's gold. With the way Kansas City's offense is playing, I'm not sure how interested I'd be in Gray if Travis Kelce were to miss time.
Corey Spala: Cade Otton is the only tight end I would nominate for real fantasy value. Chris Godwin and Mike Evan's absence will further allow Otton to earn meaningful targets. Disregarding Week 6, Otton was averaging 5.2 targets per game. The most notable variable for Otton is that he virtually never leaves the field; he leads tight ends in route participation through last season.
The highest nomination for fool's gold would be Ja'Tavion Sanders. He has taken advantage of his opportunities, and that is a positive note. However, Tommy Tremble will be returning from his injury soon and so will Adam Thielen. I am uncertain Sanders will continue to be a consistent top target for Carolina as the season progresses.
Noah Gray and Darnell Washington are tight ends who are not on my radar. This does not diminish their roles for their respective NFL teams; I am purely speaking for fantasy purposes.
Ryan Weisse: Cade Otton and Ja'Tavion Sanders are both real but still carry far different values. The loss of Godwin in Tamp Bay will put Otton in the weekly top 10, if not the top 5 conversations. He's been a top-5 tight end since Week 3, and Mayfield will need him even more now.
In Carolina, the rookie Sanders is just starting to find his footing, but you still cannot trust that offense. His 13 targets and 11 receptions in two weeks are positive indicators that he has earned a role in this offense. His zero touchdowns mean he's still more of a streaming option until further notice.
Washington and Gray are fools gold. It's hard enough to trust starting tight ends in fantasy right now; we can't go digging into backups. Gray was heavily targeted after the team lost JuJu Smith-Schuster early. As they figure out their receiver situation, he'll fade.
This was Washington's first game with more than two targets, and Pat Freiermuth still basically matched him in yardage. Russell Wilson is a veteran quarterback who will take what is given to him. Last week, it was Washington, but there are no guarantees that it will continue.
Justin Howe: Otton at least carries locked-in volume appeal. He hadn't wowed a solitary soul before last week's 8-100 line, but it wasn't entirely out of nowhere. He's drawn a sneaky 18% target share – including a team-high 22% last week. He could be a greater beneficiary of Chris Godwin's injury than even Mike Evans.
Sanders is an athletic seam-stretcher, and he's drawn 13 targets (catching 11) over the last two weeks. No, there isn't much spare production in Carolina's pitiful offense. But more bye weeks are coming, and injuries are already here, and Sanders should be nearly as coveted by the TE-needy as Otton.
Gray has drawn consistent snaps for a while, but I don't think his production would increase much, even in the event of a Travis Kelce injury. Kelce himself isn't producing enough, and I wouldn't even be able to project Gray to that.
Washington is a package player in the Steelers' run-first attack. I see him as interchangeable with five or six others on every waiver wire.
Joseph Haggan: Cade Otton is for real, as I mentioned earlier. He has 37 targets in his last five games and 258 receiving yards during that span. With Evans and Godwin out for extended periods, his target share will only increase.
Ja'Tavion Sanders is also real. His role in the passing game has steadily increased, as he saw five or more targets in three straight games. He has just 123 receiving yards in that span, though he had a season-best 61 on 6 receptions during Week 7.
Sanders was widely regarded as one of the top pass-catching tight ends in the 2024 NFL Draft. He is getting acclimated slowly but proving to be an asset in a limited wide receiver group. The Panthers' season is done. They will not compete at all. The idea will be to play their young talent and help them develop for the remainder of the season.
Noah Gray and Darnell Washington are both fools gold for the same reasons. Gray is a good dynasty target with Travis Kelce on the decline, but Gray is fool's gold for Redraft. He will never carve out a sizeable role until Kelce is gone. His 15 targets were due to the Chiefs' complete lack of pass catchers. They just added DeAndre Hopkins, who will steal many of those targets.
Washington is still behind Pat Freimuth on the Steelers depth chart. His four targets were a season-high, but he had only seven targets in the prior six weeks. Wilson does not make Washington relevant, and it would be wise to leave him on the wire.
Waldman: Thanks for reading. Check out the links below for all of this week's roundtable topics:
- Fantasy True or False
- Real or Fool's Gold, TE Edition
- Who Benefits From Recent Lineup Changes
- QBs Suffering Due to Other Injuries
Good luck!