Chris Godwin, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel Sr., Mike Evans, and DK Metcalf headline the injuries that cost them most of Week 7. It leaves mid-range to long-term holes in the Buccaneers, Seahawks, and 49ers passing games.
Welcome to Week 8 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Fantasy True or False
- Real or Fool's Gold, TE Edition
- Who Benefits From Recent Lineup Changes
- QBs Suffering Due to Other Injuries (see below)
Let's roll.
QBs Suffering Due to Other Injuries
Also known as "The Fantasy Trauma Olympics."
Matt Waldman Each of these quarterbacks has lost major talent due to injury.
Who will see the biggest decline in fantasy production? Name a WR/TE who steps up as a fantasy value in the passing game for the QB you picked.
Joseph Haggan: Baker Mayfield is currently the QB2 overall, but he did so with one of the best-receiving tandems in the NFL. Replacing Evans and Godwin will be a mix of rookie Jalen McMillan, veteran Sterling Shepard, and Trey Palmer. This is a big step down for Mayfield.
I expect McMillan to be the de facto WR1, having the most talent and upside of the group. Tight end Cade Otton likely will step up the most for the Buccaneers. Otton has become a safety blanket for Mayfield.
He has seen less than six targets once in his last five games and has 37 targets in that span. Otton had his first 100-yard receiving game in Week 7 in the absence of Evans. His target share will be steady, and he is a fringe TE1 for the remainder of the season.
Justin Howe: Mayfield seems like the obvious choice here. Both Purdy and Smith should get their missing weapons back relatively soon, and both still have a few viable options in the meantime. I worry tremendously about Mayfield and this air attack in general, with Godwin shelved for the year.
Mayfield has leaned heavily on his slot man, to the tune of a 27% target rate and 5 of his 18 touchdowns. More than a mere slot specialist, Godwin helps keep the heat off Mike Evans, who's been bumpy and inefficient all season. Evans' 57.8% catch rate sits 147th among qualifying pass-catchers, and his 7.4 yards per target is on pace for a career-low.
On the other hand, Godwin sat 39th in catch rate and 25th in yardage rate. Without that kind of efficiency, it's hard to see Mayfield closing the year on the same tear he's opened on. No other Buccaneer – not Cade Otton, not Sterling Shepard – is above 6.8 yards per throw.
It's also hard to imagine Evans getting more efficient and productive with Godwin on the bench. There's likely too much talent for this offense to collapse, but Mayfield looks like a clear regression candidate, and I doubt Evans will merely absorb Godwin's numbers.
I agree with Joseph about Otton. He'll likely earn the best opportunities on zone coverage, and there's a preexisting rapport between him and Mayfield.
Ryan Weisse: It's hard not to imagine Baker Mayfield taking a major step back without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. It's not as if the other two won't suffer, but Smith is the QB7, and Purdy is the QB8. Baker Mayfield is the QB2 and lost both his top targets, though Evans will eventually return.
Expect Mayfield to fall to the same tier as Smith and Purdy. He's still in the top 10, but not likely to win you a game singlehandedly. Cade Otton will see the biggest improvement, but I'll save that for another question in this week's roundtable.
At receiver, one of Jalen McMillan, Sterling Shepard, or Trey Palmer will have to step up. The favorite will be McMillan - we love our rookies - but don't sleep on Shepard. He and Mayfield played together at Oklahoma, and the quarterback might lean where he is comfortable.
Waldman: I like the Shepard tout. That's a sneaky good one, even if the fantasy value is based on dink-and-dunk volume.
Jeff Haseley: Mayfield, no doubt. Hamstrings can be tricky to heal from, especially if a strain was already present and it got re-injured, which looks to be the case with Mike Evans. They could bring him back for Week 10 if he is fully recovered, but that may not be the case.
I don't necessarily feel like this is a death sentence to Baker Mayfield, but his numbers will likely decline. Those who will fill the void in Tampa Bay include Cade Otton, who had 8 receptions for 100 yards in Week 7 with a team-high 22% team target share. Jalen McMillan could also see an uptick in production, but Otton is the one that Mayfield gravitated to after losing Evans.
Corey Spala: I agree with Jeff Haseley that this is not a death sentence for Mayfield. It is merely substantial losing two impactful receiving options in an offense, the two main receiving options who are superior talents.
I think Rachaad White will benefit due to the absence of Godwin and Evans in PPR leagues. He is currently fourth in running back receptions and targets. Offensive coordinator Liam Coen should continue to involve White in the passing game and find new meaningful plays for White. If you are risk-averse, then tight end Cade Otton would be the most sensible option.
Phil Alexander: Baker Mayfield is the gold medalist in this regrettable event by process of elimination. DK Metcalf is already pushing to play through his knee injury, and Geno Smith can still throw passes to Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Tyler Lockett, and Noah Fant if Metcalf misses a game or two.
Brock Purdy will miss Brandon Aiyuk, but we've seen Jauan Jennings fill in more than capably as a starter when called upon. Deebo Samuel Sr. will recover from pneumonia before too long, Ricky Pearsall is off IR, and George Kittle is still healthy enough to play (for now).
What's Mayfield got to work with now that Chris Godwin is out for the year and Mike Evans won't play before Week 12? When considering Cade Otton, Jalen McMillan, Trey Palmer, and Sterling Shepard, we're about to find out to what degree the surrounding talent has been responsible for Mayfield's improved play since joining the Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay is currently third in the NFL in pass rate over expectation. With the emergence of Sean Tucker and Bucky Irving next to Rachaad White in the backfield, it wouldn't be shocking to see the Buccaneers skew far more run-heavy in games their terrible pass defense allows them to. But with the rushing pie split three ways, it won't help much for fantasy purposes.
McMillan is my choice to emerge as Mayfield's best receiver. He generated positive buzz during training camp, made an impressive 32-yard touchdown catch in Week 1, and saw eight targets on Monday night. If McMillan assumes his natural position as Godwin's primary replacement in the slot, he would have the highest floor and ceiling of any Tampa Bay pass-catcher until Evans returns.
Waldman: Thanks for reading. Check out the links below for all of this week's roundtable topics:
- Fantasy True or False
- Real or Fool's Gold, TE Edition
- Who Benefits From Recent Lineup Changes
- QBs Suffering Due to Other Injuries
Good luck!