Roundtable: QB Fantasy Assets or Fool's Gold

• Kyler Murray, Arizona
• Jayden Daniels, Washington
• Sam Darnold, Minnesota
• Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay

If you believe there is no true asset or no fool's gold from this quartet, give your best argument.

Andy Hicks: No fool's gold on this list for me, despite the temptation to throw Baker Mayfield in there. One bad game is acceptable; two would be a concern.  

As an asset, count me in on Sam Darnold. Without the rookie first-round pick breathing down his back due to injury, Darnold gets a whole year to demonstrate that the ghosts he saw with the Jets and Panthers are gone.

Young quarterbacks need time to learn and get better. They shouldn't be expected to be an all-pro in their first season. The list of destroyed young quarterbacks mismanaged or thrown to the wolves grows every year. Darnold has shown fortitude. Now the talent that saw him drafted high originally before Adam Gase got his hands on him.  

Jason Wood: Kyler Murray and Jayden Daniels are true assets (ranking in the top five in EPA per dropback), but since my colleagues will understandably praise Daniels, I'll shift the spotlight to Murray.

We already knew he had elite fantasy upside—he's been a fantasy QB1 in every healthy season despite inconsistent coaching. This year, however, we're seeing a smarter version of Murray, with improved decision-making, more patience in his progressions, and a focus on protecting himself when he breaks the pocket to run. 

I'm still doubting Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold. The fact that Darnold is younger than Joe Burrow leads me to focus on Mayfield for this conversation. Yes, Mayfield has been good since joining the Buccaneers, and yes, he's exceeded consensus expectations.

But he's not great. He finished last year as the No. 19 quarterback despite the accolades, as we tend to overlook his string of mediocre performances simply because we expected them all to be bad. This year, he's ranked QB6 through three weeks, but he has a negative EPA per dropback, and his one big statistical outing came against the Commanders' secondary, which is shaping up to be historically poor. 

Gary Davenport: The true asset is easy—as much as I have enjoyed Jayden Daniels' first three games, Kyler Murray has already shown that he can be a top-five fantasy quarterback—and he's on track to be one again in 2024. Murray was one of my favorite draft targets under center this year, and by year's end, I expect I'll wish I had more shares of him. 

Either Sam Darnold is a mortal lock for NFL Comeback Player of the Year, or he's the Fool's Gold of the lot. What Darnold and the Vikings have done to date this season is mind-boggling, and Dalton's fantasy numbers have improved every week. But it isn't like we don't have a sample size on Darnold, and buying this big a turnaround lasting in the long-term takes a lot of…he's Sam Darnold.

Jeff Bell: Jayden Daniels is a true asset. He has stepped into a difficult situation and shown the type of success and week-to-week growth you hope to see from a quarterback drafted at the top. Going on the road in a primetime game against a top quarterback who set the legacy at your alma mater and pulled out a win when the defense had no answers is a big-time spot.  He has ice water in his veins.

I do not believe there is fool's gold here. The last few NFL seasons have seen a trend of discarded top draft picks landing in ideal situations and flourishing. Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold are in ideal situations after starting their careers in, well, not ideal conditions. Both have strong coaching, ample talent, and a great supporting cast. Murray still leaves us wanting slightly on some developmental curves, but his bonafides as a fantasy contributor are proven.

Sam Wagman: Jayden Daniels appears to be as true of an asset as they come for fantasy football. Through three games, he's rocking an 80% completion percentage, an average of nearly 60 rush yards per game, and is getting on the same page with his receivers.

I don't think any of these quarterbacks are fool's gold. Both Mayfield and Darnold are working in systems that are maximizing their strengths, and it's certainly working, with them combining for a 5-1 win-loss record so far this season. Both are playing as well as we've seen them play in years, and it's clear to me that as long as the systems and players are around them, both will be top 24 options for fantasy.

Jeff Haseley: The concern for Daniels as a fantasy producer was how soon it would take for him to feel comfortable throwing the ball downfield. We saw a glimpse of that in the preseason but until Week 3, we didn't see much of his down-field arm.

He has top-10 potential due to his rushing talent alone, but if he can continue to be accurate, efficient, and productive, the sky is the limit. As long as he can stay healthy.<

Darnold is the one on this list who will most likely fade. He has been outstanding as the captain of the Vikings offense, especially after losing Jordan Addison for a few games and not having T.J. Hockenson (knee) in the fold.

Darnold has had hot starts in the past only to fade away, but he is more experienced now and he has a good supporting cast led by Justin Jefferson. He may not completely fall off, but a fall from the top 5 seems imminent, especially because he does not have the benefit of being a dual-threat quarterback.

Waldman: I don't believe any of them will remain top-five fantasy passers this year. Daniels had a terrific game against the Bengals but there are a lot of schematic factors, film, and data that suggest the Commanders are using him as a point guard more than a progression-based passer. 

That's a good thing for a development strategy that must cope with an impatient league of executives and media. It could reduce the chances of Daniels sustaining his current value this year.

I like Daniels' talent and the plan. I liked how he performed when the Commanders opened up the downfield passing game for him in Week 3. History suggests NFL defenses will catch up and there will be at least a moderate dip in production. 

I haven't seen a difference from Kyler Murray this year as a decision-maker. He's a fantasy black hole relative to most quarterbacks. Give him the ball and he scores, but his teammates don't as much as they should. 

I think all of these quarterbacks are most likely to finish the year as top-15 fantasy passers but in the range of 8-15. 

Thanks for reading. Check out the links below for all of this week's roundtable topics:

• Backup Running Backs of Value
• Fantasy Assets/Fool's Gold: QB Edition
• Offensive Line Liabilities 
• Defenses to Exploit

Good luck!

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