Derrick Henry, Malik Nabers, Brock Bowers, and Lamar Jackson are delivering at the top of their positions in a big way. Not all of them are producing at a rate to break records as the title suggests, they are in a position to deliver dominant seasons.
The real question is who is most and least likely to maintain this torrid pace?
Welcome to Week 7 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Risers/Fallers, Top 10 Fantasy WRs
- Real or Fool's Gold, RB Edition
- Potential Record Breakers (see below)
- Subscriber Contest October Check-In
Let's roll.
Potential Record-Breakers
Matt Waldman: Consider these four scenarios for these fantasy stars on the path to dominant seasons.
- Derrick Henry rushing for 1,994 yards and 23 (rushing) scores?
- Malik Nabers earning 195 targets this year, which would tie him for eighth all-time for targets in a season with Reggie Wayne and within shouting distance of Marvin Harrison Sr. for the top mark at 205.
- Brock Bowers earning 235.7 fantasy points to top Mike Ditka's rookie mark of 235.6, something Sam LaPorta nearly achieved last year (note that Ditka did it in 14 games).
- Lamar Jackson earning 5,300 yards from scrimmage.
Which is the most likely to happen, and which is the least likely to happen?
Andy Hicks: Most likely: Derrick Henry earning 2,000 yards and 23 rushing touchdowns. The touchdown numbers are least likely but still within reach. The yardage numbers are slightly easier but still almost impossible.
Henry broke 2,000 yards in a 16-game season in 2020. He is 40 yards ahead of the same stage in that season, with an extra game this year. One low-yardage game and the dream dies.
Two missed games for Malik Nabers likely make it impossible to make up the pace required for record-setting target numbers. Add the concussion concerns, and this option will disappear in another week or two. Even if his target numbers bounce back immediately, the Giants passing offense isn't good enough to perform week in and week out to the level required.
As mentioned, Malik Nabers likely implodes on the expectations set out here. His rookie season will still be a massive success story, even if it stops right now.
Derrick Henry is the player to ride or die with here. Henry and Kamara are so far in front of the third-ranked back this year that they could miss two games and still be ranked one and two. Henry is more likely to sustain that for an entire season. The Ravens are perfectly built for his style of play, and the presence of Lamar Jackson keeps any rushing defense honest.
Sam Wagman: Nabers is currently on pace for 182 targets in 14 games, an average of 13 per game. He's become a truly integral part of the Giants' offense, and I believe they'll continue to throw the ball to him every single week that he's healthy. If he returns this week, I view this as most likely.
I cannot see Brock Bowers besting Ditka's mark, but not through any fault of his own. Rather, it's on the shoulders of the offensive coordinator and quarterback he is playing with and their inability to give him enough high-value touches to get to this mark. With Davante Adams now gone, there simply isn't enough talent to get Bowers the best looks.
I love all four players and could easily interchange any of them as a ride-or-die. I'd have to sell Henry, given that due to the Ravens' uncharacteristically poor defense, he can get gamescripted out of games more than most. I know Henry historically gets better as the season progresses, but if his production is somewhat predicated on things he can't control, he's an obvious sell to me.
Jason Wood: As I'm sure you know, Matt, none of these scenarios are likely to happen. But it's fun to think through all-time great seasons and imagine watching them unfold.
Lamar Jackson has the best shot at hitting the mark of the four scenarios outlined, but the probability is still exceedingly small. He has the best chance for two reasons.
First, we're now in a 17-game regular season, so he would need to average 311.8 yards of offense per game. That's already been done 14 times by players like Patrick Mahomes II (3x), Drew Brees (3x), Tom Brady (2x), Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Jameis Winston. The other three scenarios would require performances at or near all-time single-season records.
The issue with Jackson hitting this mark is that he rarely plays an entire season. He's missed at least one game every year except his rookie season when he wasn't the full-time starter.
I'm confident Malik Nabers isn't going to reach 195 targets this year. He's already missed two games due to a concussion, meaning the maximum he can play is 15 games, assuming no further time off. To hit 195 targets in 15 games, he'd have to average 13 targets per game.
If you look at the top 50 all-time single-season target leaders, only one player—Rob Moore in 1997—managed that, and he did it for a Cardinals team that ranked No. 2 in pass attempts. Betting on anyone, especially a rookie, to set the all-time per-game mark in any stat is a pretty questionable process.
Bowers is the one that concerns me. The Raiders are a team with very little going for them, and I don't think the quarterback play will be good enough to keep Bowers in optimal situations, even if they force-feed targets his way. While Bowers is incredibly talented, he wasn't exactly an iron man at Georgia, so I wouldn't count on him playing a full 16 or 17 games this season.
Dan Hindery: Brock Bowers scoring 235-plus fantasy points is the most likely scenario to happen. Bowers is currently on pace for 105 catches and 1,088 receiving yards, and nothing about his production has seemed unsustainable.
He's the only true difference-maker in the Raiders' offense and has seen his role expand in the absence of Davante Adams, with 22 targets over the past two weeks. If he reaches 100 catches and 1,100 yards, Bowers would only need a handful of touchdowns to hit 235 fantasy points.
While I wouldn't necessarily bet on it happening, his current pace is the most sustainable among the four players listed.
The least likely is Malik Nabers earning 195 targets. To reach that mark, he would need to maintain his current pace of 13.0 targets per game for the rest of the season and avoid further injuries.
Last year, Keenan Allen was the only player in the NFL to see more than 11 targets per game (11.5). Nabers could lead the league in targets per game and still fall short of this target total.
Waldman: I'm calling an audible as the moderator and adding a write-in vote for Nick Chubb to lead the NFL in rushing from Week 7 until the end of the season and becoming the first player with too massive injuries to the same knee to return to elite form.
I'm also not sure if I'm dreaming or I'm editing this piece (c'mon, readers, let a grown man dare to dream).
Thanks for reading, check out the other topics:
- Risers/Fallers, Top 10 Fantasy WRs
- Real or Fool's Gold, RB Edition
- Potential Record Breakers
- Subscriber Contest October Check-In
Good luck!