Roundtable: October Rebound Candidates

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NFL players have slow starts every year. Some of them deliver dramatic rebounds. Who are our staff's top candidates? 

Welcome to Week 6 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.

This week's roundtable features these four topics:

• Start, Hold, Cut, or Trade: The RB Edition
• Bench, Hold, Cut, or Trade: The WR Edition
• For Real, Fool's Gold: The WR Edition
• October Rebound Candidates (see below)

Let's roll. 

October Rebound Candidates

Matt Waldman: Pick the three best candidates to experience a rebound in October from a bad September. 

• Caleb Williams
• Patrick Mahomes II
• Jared Goff
• Deebo Samuel Sr.
• Calvin Ridley
• Tank Dell
• Keenan Allen
• Sam LaPorta

Hit me! Don't miss me...

Sam Wagman: Tank Dell is still recovering from offseason surgery and a gunshot wound, so I'll give him a pass for the early-season woes. However, with Nico Collins on IR now, Dell has to step up in this pass-heavy offense. He can continue to get healthier each week, and I think one of these weeks will be his breakout game. 

It's been quiet, but we're finally starting to get glimpses of the generational prospect the Bears drafted at 1.01 in Caleb Williams. He's having a great run of form lately, beating up on bad defenses in LA as well as Carolina, and now gets the Jaguars, Commanders, Cardinals, and Patriots in the coming weeks. It's time to maximize the passing game and give Williams a chance to get back in the race for offensive rookie of the year. 

I still believe that Deebo Samuel Sr. is the engine that makes this 49ers offense run at top speed, and this should be the first week that he's closest to health as he was coming into the season. A game against Seattle this week could do the trick. Last year, he had 14 catches for 228 yards and a TD against them in two games. 

Jeff Bell: Jared Goff is the easy one.  The rebound may already be underway. We saw the perfect Monday night performance against Seattle before Detroit's bye. The Lions have multiple exploitable matchups, and Goff looks comfortable with Jameson Williams acclimated.  

Caleb Williams has topped 300 yards in two of his last three games and has a very exploitable October schedule with the Jaguars, Commanders, and Cardinals coming up. His completion percentage has been over 70%, and he has played turnover-free football the last two weeks. Williams is quietly becoming the player we all hoped for, just when the social media consensus was ready to declare that the Bears had missed again. 

With Nico Collins landing on IR, I am going to (wish)cast positive vibes for Tank Dell. I am concerned that last year's season-ending leg injury, combined with getting shot in the leg, has robbed Dell temporarily of his athleticism. But the Texans will need him to step up without Collins and with no credible option outside Stefon Diggs.

At 4-1 in an otherwise lousy division, the Texans can run away and shift their focus to playoff seeding over the next month. Games against the Colts and Lions should provide a runaway for their passing game to produce. Before Collins returns, Dell must knock the rust off and click to establish himself as a playoff presence. 

Matt Montgomery: I am to the point now that I don't bet against Patrick Mahomes II in anything. He's arguably the best player to play the position ever as far as talent goes, and even without star receivers, he's not someone I would ever bench. September for Andy Reid is like playground time, orchestrating plays and finding out what his team is like, so look for Mahomes and the Chiefs offense as a while to increase their production down the stretch and into the fantasy playoffs.  

When healthy, Deebo Samuel Sr. is the ultimate football player for a Shanahan offense without Christian McCaffery. He is considered a wide back in football terms, which may as well mean "anywhere and everywhere" on the field. Whether rushing the ball between tackles, sweeps, downfield catches, or curl routes, Deebo will get used early and often in games, and he will turn it around at some point over the next few weeks. 

The Lions are a team with a very simple identity: Power. When they're looking to establish themselves in the game, they usually allow Goff to pick apart defenses methodically rather than going over the top. Laporta is an integral part of that game plan, and while September may have been disappointing, I believe it was due to the emergence of Jameson Williams as a credible threat.

Now that teams must scheme against him, this will create more opportunities for LaPorta. Fantasy GMs saw him as the No.2 threat when the year began. I believe he will now be seen as No.3 or No.4. 

Gary Davenport: Caleb Williams has already started to rebound, although it's less bounce-back and more a young quarterback getting comfortable in the NFL.

Even in the weirdest year at tight end that I can remember, last year's high-scorer in PPR points at the position isn't going to stay in the Bermuda Triangle — Sam LaPorta will be fine.  So will his quarterback.

Jared Goff isn't that far off the pace we expected in 2024. Unlike Mahomes (whose Chiefs are winning without gaudy numbers from him), Goff doesn't need a huge spike to meet (or even exceed) ADP. He's also coming out of the bye with momentum after a big Week 4. 

Jason Wood: Caleb Williams is a stone-cold lock to bounce back from a rough September, and we've already seen the turnaround start with last week's 304-yard, 2-touchdown performance. His next four opponents are Jacksonville, Washington, Arizona, and New England. Williams and his receivers are set to feast in October, likely enjoying more success than trick-or-treaters in Hershey, PA. 

Deebo Samuel Sr. will be just fine. While the 49ers have had an unusual start to the season, the coaching staff and roster are too experienced and cohesive to write them off. They face a tough matchup against the Chiefs in two weeks, but they get Seattle this week and Dallas in Week 8. Samuel may not be the most consistent fantasy star due to the 49ers' wealth of offensive talent, but expecting him to contribute positively in two out of every three games is a solid strategy.

Every year, we get excited about newfound depth at the tight end position, only for our hopes to be dashed by the end of September. However, Sam LaPorta is one of the few tight ends who has shown promise, and the Lions' passing attack will get back on track soon—possibly as early as this week.

Phil Alexander: We have a five-year sample of Deebo Samuel Sr. as one of the most unique, effective, versatile, and efficient rushing/receiving threats in the NFL. As he gets closer to full strength, the fantasy numbers we've grown accustomed to will soon follow. 

Our Adam Hutchinson has Nico Collins pegged for a Week 9 return from a hamstring injury. If Adam's projection is correct, Tank Dell has the rest of October and part of November to operate as Houston's WR2. All bets are off once Collins returns to the lineup, but soft tissue injuries tend to linger and reemerge. 

As Jason alluded to, and Chicago beat writer Zack Pearson illustrated in this tweet, the Williams rebound is already underway. Post-bye matchups with Washington and Arizona should solidify his bounce back, and the remaining schedule features several potential shootout game environments. 

His passer rating by game this season: 

1. 55.7
2. 51
3. 80.8
4. 106.6
5. 126.2

Williams will make good on his QB10 preseason ADP yet.