Understanding the weaknesses of opposing defenses is not only helpful for NFL offenses, but also for fantasy GMs.
Welcome to Week 4 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Backup Running Backs of Value
- Fantasy Assets/Fool's Gold: QB Edition
- Offensive Line Liabilities
- Defenses to Exploit (see below)
Let's roll.
Defenses to Exploit
Matt Waldman: After three weeks, I'm convinced the Rams' secondary is awful. I can think of at least three other units with a lowly status, but I'd rather know your takes.
Which defenses are worth knowing about to break ties among potential starters as we enter bye weeks? Name one unit that is a boon for fantasy GMs.
Jeff Haseley: The Commanders have allowed 9 touchdown passes in 3 games while also giving up 392, 304, and 436 yards to opposing quarterbacks. Washington visits Arizona in Week 4 and has a home game against Cleveland in Week 5.
Kyler Murray and company should have a strong game this week. I'd even consider Deshaun Watson for Week 5 if the trend continues.
Jeff Bell: The Commanders' pass defense is the obvious answer. They are both first in points allowed to quarterback and wide receiver. They blend everything you want in an opponent's defense: learning a new scheme, lacking blue-chip playmakers, and an offense capable of continuing to push opponents.
The Cowboys run defense is another. They've allowed nearly 10 points per game more than the No. 2 fantasy defense against running backs. We have seen Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara shred them. Given Cleveland's struggles in Week 3, Jerome Ford's 69 yards from scrimmage with 1 score looks like an anomaly for Dallas.
My third unit is rooted in scheduling. The Chiefs have been hurt by tight ends through the first two weeks, but Kyle Pitts' lowly output ended what was looking like a trend.
If the first two weeks are more indicative of the Chiefs against opposing tight ends there are two possible explanations. First, Trent McDuffie is head and shoulders above the other players in the Chiefs' back seven to the point of funneling targets inside. Second, Isaiah Likely's Week 1 production influenced the Bengals to attempt a similar game plan with Mike Gesicki in Week 2.
Gary Davenport: This has to the Washington Commanders. Last year, the Commanders were dead last in the league in total defense. This year, Washington has climbed Kilimanjaro to 29th.
Waldman: Long trek from under the hole to the bottom of the hole.
Davenport: Right? The fact the team is 2-1 speaks a lot more to the exploits of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels than discernible improvement by Washington's defense.
You mentioned the Rams and it won't be at all surprising to see Arizona's Kyler Murray enjoy similar success against the Commanders in Week 4 as he did against Los Angeles a couple of weeks ago.
On the flip side, if one of your starting fantasy receivers faces the New York Jets, a less-than-ideal scenario. The Jets were second against the pass in 2023. They rank fourth this year. And they're toward the bottom of the NFL in fantasy points surrendered to wide receivers again as well. Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed are on the short list of the league's best duos at cornerback.
Waldman: Look at you, Gary. You can't help but tout the defensive side of the ball.
Davenport: We demonize defenses in non-IDP formats. I'm standing up for what should be more appreciated.
Waldman: Can I get an amen?
Jason Wood: It's hard to argue with my colleagues about the Commanders' pass defense being a must-target, but I'll suggest another secondary—the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders have graded worse than Washington in PFF's coverage grading this season.
They are, by far, the worst tackling team in the league. When you can't cover and you can't tackle, you're going to be a fantasy bonanza for opposing offenses.
Sam Wagman: While everyone is (rightfully) focused on the passing game defense issues of the Washington Commanders, I want to turn my eyes to the running game. The Dallas Cowboys currently have the worst rush defense in the NFL.
It seems wild after this unit has been fearsome for the last several years, but the Cowboys are getting gashed on the ground. They're allowing 5.5 yards per carry, have given up the most rushes of 10+ yards (17), and have struggled mightily to defend passes to RBs.
Andy Hicks: The Eagles' pass defense put up a good showing against the Saints but struggled against the Falcons and Packers. With the Buccaneers needing a bounce-back game, the Eagles may struggle against big receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Chris Olave even had a strong game against the Eagles, despite Derek Carr's struggles. Rashid Shaheed was inches from two huge plays. If he made them, that would have led to production similar to the other two Eagles games.
Waldman: The Rams' inept execution of zone coverage led to Kyler Murray having what I bet will be one of the three best weeks he'll have all year. They also made Jauan Jennings look like a smaller Brandon Marshall, which Jennings was at the University of Tennessee, but won't likely become in the NFL.
Thanks for reading. Check out the links below for all of this week's roundtable topics:
- Backup Running Backs of Value
- Fantasy Assets/Fool's Gold: QB Edition
- Offensive Line Liabilities
- Defenses to Exploit
Good luck!