Football is a game of tradition. While the strategies and names may change, there will always be a fair bit that remains the same. Whether it is due to a fanatical fandom that refuses to let go of the past or team ownership that feels it’s their way or the highway, the more things change, the more they seem to stay the same in some circles. There may be no greater example than the reputation of the Las Vegas Raiders. This team has been synonymous with a tough and rugged raider “plundering” his way through the NFL season. The defensive identity, now solidified with the hiring of defensive head coach Antonio Pierce, reinforces the identity of this franchise. Defense wins championships. Manning the middle linebacker spot is Robert Spillane, who last season achieved career highs in every major stat category. While the Raiders' identity may continue the tradition set forth by the lauded legends of the game, Robert Spillane’s contribution to this is not something I would buy stock in.
Robert Spillane Had a Career Year in 2023
Spillane had his peak year last season. In some cases, he was a man among boys, especially when you break down his two-month tear that included a whopping 73 total tackles and 2.5 of his 3.5 total sacks. This happened during the fantasy playoff push, which is always a great feather to have in your cap as a player. He nearly doubled his previous season's tackle numbers (his career high at the time) and had an impact in the “big play” categories as well. Three interceptions to go with four defended passes showed us he can impact the game in three ways. Sounds like a pretty good start to what could be a great career as a Las Vegas Raider. The Raiders love their defensive identity and roughneck attitude, and Spillane almost feels like he was created in the forge of the Raiders’ linebackers. So, everything is unicorns and rainbows in Vegas, right? Spillane must improve on these numbers in his second year in the system. Right?
A Down 2024?
As harsh as this may seem, I don’t believe what we saw last season was a reality for Spillane. Throughout his entire career, Spillane was nothing more than a depth player in his linebacker room, which may as well be the fantasy football desert. IDP fantasy football is primarily a game of guys who stand apart from their teammates and peers. This game has 352 players who start, let alone the additional players who get significant snaps but don’t necessarily start a game. If he can’t break through in the various rooms he’s been in, why do we believe this isn’t an outlier situation seven years into his career? He was an undrafted player from a small school (Western Michigan), which also shows us that he doesn’t have anything standing out from an athleticism standpoint in the eyes of NFL general managers. The NFL is loaded with players who achieved great heights as undrafted players, but very few have continued these levels for longer than one or two years. Not to kick over your sandcastle at the beach, but he also has some real competition for stats in the same position group.
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Divine Intervention?
Last season, we also saw the emergence of another linebacker in this group, Divine Deablo. Spillane outperformed Deablo, but this was due to a variety of factors. It’s easy to point out the flaws in Spillane, but he has NFL experience and was tasked with leading a room full of emerging talent. We saw him shine in this role. He is now a second year into this role, while Deablo will have another full offseason to achieve his athletic peak at 25 years old, translating into points for your team. Not only will Deablo look to improve on his career highs achieved last season, but we need to factor in that he achieved these stats while missing two games. Deablo, a former third-round pick out of Virginia Tech, was drafted to be the lead linebacker here, and I believe we will see this play out in the snap counts and overall statistics. Deablo is a young, ascending asset playing in a contract year. Due to this added motivation, he likely plays with a fire that will pop off the screen to the detriment of his teammate Robert Spillane.
Robert Spillane Still Has Trade Value
As always, I am not going to leave you with a live grenade in your hand! There is a value that can be pulled from a player like Spillane. While his numbers last season give him the camouflage of an LB1, he is likely more on the high-caliber LB3/low-caliber LB2 range of outcomes and that is still valuable if given the right information. Spillane will likely begin the year better than Deablo as he eases into the season, but I don’t expect this to last longer than September. I would look to move Spillane into this sweet spot for maximized value. He will appear to be an LB1 and should fetch LB1 prices, as he is still 28 years old, which is prime time for a dynasty linebacker. Also, it is still important to note that you shouldn’t let him go cheap. Just because he won't achieve the numbers he did last season doesn’t mean he can't help you achieve your goal of winning your league. Having him as a depth piece is better than selling low, but only you can determine the price you’re willing to let him go at.
Closing
We see players like Robert Spillane every year in IDP fantasy football. The guy who emerges in a new situation and has a career year. While this is an exciting find in your leagues, very few players with this background and skill set continue to achieve these high marks. For that reason, he is a prime candidate to bust. To bust, though, you have to have proven that you could have been considered the top of your game at one point. Last season was just that for Spillane, but it will also be his last in the conversation of the linebacker leaders in IDP Fantasy Football. So beware, managers, and remember, Fool’s Gold looks like real gold!
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