This article highlights some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) and reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not considered, so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchups
WR Malik Nabers (NYG vs ATL) vs A.J. Terrell Jr.
Atlanta has not played well over the past two months in almost every aspect of the game. Their secondary has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing receivers overall, the most to perimeter receivers, 20 touchdowns, and a 72% completion rate. Even with Drew Lock expected to start this week, the high volume for Nabers puts him as a top-tier receiver this week. Terrell is currently allowing 0.30 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 16% of the time. He is prone to giving up the big play this season, and Nabers has the ability to break one at any time.
WR Mike Evans (TB vs DAL) vs Amani Oruwariye
Evans is on pace to have another 1,000-yard season and has the chance to knock out a good chunk of the remaining 251 yards he needs this week against Dallas. Oruwariye has been targeted early and often since becoming a starter and is currently allowing 0.65 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 24% of the time. Evans lines up all over the field and will likely see a good amount of DaRon Bland as well. However, the Buccaneers will likely move him around to get the best matchups, and that should come against Oruwariye. Put Evans in your top tier of receivers this week with a top 10 finish very possible.
WR Drake London (ATL vs NYG) vs Deonte Banks
Both teams are making a change at quarterback going into this week, but both star receivers should still be started with confidence due to the great matchup. Banks has been poor in coverage all season and has even been benched earlier in the year. He currently allows 0.47 fantasy points per coverage snaps and is being targeted 22% of the time. Quarterbacks are not afraid to throw his way, and he has given up several big plays. Start London with confidence, even with Michael Penix Jr. getting his first career start this week.
WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARZ vs CAR) vs Jaycee Horn
This is another projected shadow matchup that should benefit the receiver instead of the defense this week. Horn traveled with DeAndre Hopkins and Mike Evans in recent weeks and allowed touchdowns to both receivers. He currently allows 0.36 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 20% of the time. The projected shadow matchup should slightly upgrade Harrison this week, even when he moves to the slot and faces Chau Smith-Wade.
WR DK Metcalf (SEA vs MIN) vs Stephon Gilmore
Minnesota may be 12-2 and playing some of their best football in years, but the defense still allows fantasy points to opposing receivers at an alarming rate. The defense has made a living getting the critical turnover each week but also allows a lot of yards and touchdowns through the air. Gilmore currently allows 0.33 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 22% of the time. Metcalf has struggled at times this season, but he should be upgraded against the Vikings secondary.
WR Romeo Doubs (GB vs NO) vs Alontae Taylor
Green Bay is playing very good football down the stretch and still has an outside chance to win the division. This week, they take on a New Orleans' secondary that has allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season. Taylor is currently allowing 0.37 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 20% of the time. It can be tough to predict who will get the ball out of the Green Bay receivers, but Doubs projects with the best matchup and should be the favorite target for Jordan Love.
TE Sam LaPorta (DET vs CHI)
It has been a down season for LaPorta, but he is starting to play well at the right time for fantasy managers in the playoffs. He has scored double-digit points in his past three games and four out of the last five. He has a plus matchup against the Bears, who have allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and who he beat for 15.6 points in week 13. If you have been patient this long, it is time to cash in during the 2nd round of the fantasy playoffs.
TE Brenton Strange (JAX vs LV)
Strange has stepped in and done everything we thought Evan Engram was going to do this season. He had a career-high 18.3 fantasy points last week and was targeted 12 times. Mac Jones is clearly very confident about throwing the ball his way, and Strange has a plus matchup against the Raiders this week. Las Vegas has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends over the past 8 weeks. Strange is a solid option with a top-12 finish very possible this week.
Unfavorable Matchups
WR Quentin Johnston (LAC vs DEN) vs Patrick Surtain II
Johnston has one of the toughest matchups in the NFL this week against Surtain. The only receiver to score double digits against Surtain was Jerry Jeudy, and most of his damage came when he was lined up away from Surtain. When they met in week 6, Surtain left after the first snap of the game due to injury. Even without Surtain in coverage, Johnston only managed 3 catches for 22 yards. Johnston may have touchdowns in back-to-back games, but he should absolutely be on the bench this week with a projected shadow matchup against Surtain.
WR Rashod Bateman (BAL vs PIT) Joey Porter Jr.
Bateman has been boom or bust all season, but one of those busts came against Porter earlier this year. Bateman registered just 2 catches for 30 yards on 5 targets against Porter. The young corner currently allows 0.30 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 20% of the time. He is the best cover option on this defense and has routinely lined up against the opposing WR1. Zay Flowers gets a slightly easier matchup against Donte Jackson on the other side, but this is a tough matchup for Baltimore receivers as a whole.
WR A.J. Brown (PHI vs WAS) vs Marshon Lattimore
Lattimore is fully healthy and playing very well since the trade to Washington. He is currently allowing 0.12 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted just 9% of the time. The Washington secondary has completely turned the season around since their poor start and is fighting to secure one of the wild card playoff spots. On the other side, Brown recently complained about the passing game in Philadelphia and has struggled to stay consistent this year. Downgrade the Philadelphia receivers this week with Brown falling into a lower tier/ FLEX territory.
WR Terry McLaurin (WAS vs PHI) vs Quinyon Mitchell
Philadelphia has been a buzzsaw against just about every set of receivers this season. They have allowed the fewest fantasy points overall to opposing receivers, including the fewest to the perimeter and the 10th fewest to the slot. McLaurin faced this secondary in week 11 and was held to a single catch for 10 yards. Mitchell covered McLaurin for 74% of his routes in that matchup and is currently allowing 0.19 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 15% of the time. Avoid the Washington receivers this week at all costs.
WR Jaylen Waddle (MIA vs SF) vs Charvarius Ward
Despite the rough season overall, the 49ers have performed well against opposing receivers. They are currently allowing the 4th fewest fantasy points overall to the position, including the 3rd fewest to the perimeter. Ward is allowing 0.30 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 19% of the time. The defense is pretty even across the board in allowing points to opposing receivers. Downgrade the perimeter receivers for Miami this week in what is a must-win for both teams.
WR Adam Thielen (CAR vs ARZ) vs Garrett Williams
Thielen has played well since returning from injury, and Carolina has made progress as an offense since returning to Bryce Young. However, Williams has been one of the best slot corners in the league this season, currently allowing 0.17 fantasy points per coverage snap and being targeted 14% of the time. Jalen Coker also broke out last week and should take away some of Thielen's target share. With the playoffs on the line, Thielen is a player to avoid in your lineups.
TE Cade Otton (TB vs DAL)
The return of Mike Evans has spelled the doom of Otton. He has failed to score double-digit points in four out of his last five games and has been targeted four or fewer times in each. He is also facing a Cowboys' defense that has been tough against tight ends all season and allows just 43 yards per game to the position. It was a nice run in the middle of the season for Otton, but he cannot be trusted with the fantasy semifinals on the line.
TE Kyle Pitts (ATL vs NYG)
The decline of Pitts is almost complete. He played just 24 snaps last week and has averaged just 3.8 points per game over the past five weeks. There is also a change being made at quarterback this week, and the offense may look entirely different. The Giants are allowing 45.1 yards per game on average this season and have played well. Pitts has belonged on the waivers for much of the second half of this season, but at the very least, he should be on your bench this week.
