This article highlights some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) and reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not considered, so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchups
WR DJ Moore (CHI vs MIN) vs Stephon Gilmore
The Vikings continue to find ways to win games despite the defense allowing the most fantasy points to opposing receivers. Gilmore is their top cover option and has been asked to shadow in several games this season. He has not excelled in this role, including the last time he met Moore a few weeks ago, allowing 7 catches for 106 yards and a touchdown. Gilmore currently allows 0.33 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 23% of the time. There is great value with Moore this week in a plus matchup against the Vikings.
WR Jakobi Meyers (LV vs ATL) vs Dee Alford
There has not been much to be excited about in Las Vegas regarding fantasy football. However, Meyers is walking into a great matchup against a secondary that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing receivers. Brock Bowers garners most of the attention on the offense, but Meyers will face Alford in the slot. The slot corner currently allows 0.44 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 23% of the time. Bowers and Meyers are the only viable options on this team right now, and both can be upgraded this week against a poor Atlanta secondary.
WR Terry McLaurin (WAS vs NO) vs Kool-Aid McKinstry
Things have gone downhill quickly in New Orleans after their hot start to the season. They are missing several pieces on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. This bodes well for McLaurin and the Washington offense. Rookie corner McKinstry is currently allowing 0.24 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 18% of the time. These may be the best defensive numbers on the team, but New Orleans is allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing receivers. With Noah Brown likely out the rest of the season, McLaurin will see an even bigger target share than he already does the rest of the way.
WR Calvin Ridley (TEN vs CIN) vs Cam Taylor-Britt
Cincinnati has had a hard time covering any receiver from any team over the past eight weeks. They have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points overall and the seventh-most to the perimeter. Taylor-Britt is one of the biggest culprits in allowing 0.46 fantasy points per coverage snap and is targeted 20% of the time. This week, Tennessee receivers can be upgraded in a plus matchup against the Bengals.
WR Jauan Jennings (SF vs LAR) vs Quentin Lake
Jennings has been one of the few non-injured options in the San Francisco offense. He has outplayed Deebo Samuel Sr. all year and is commanding an equal target share with George Kittle. The Rams are getting healthy at the right time to make a run at the playoffs, but Lake has been a weak spot in the defense all season. He currently allows 0.37 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 19% of the time. Jennings has been reliable since Brandon Aiyuk got hurt and has a great matchup this week.
WR Zay Flowers (BAL vs NYG) vs Deonte Banks
Banks has struggled mightily this season and was even benched for a short period. He has been asked to shadow some of the top receivers in the league and has very poor results to show for it. He is not expected to follow Flowers this week but will likely match up against him more than half the time. Banks currently allows 0.47 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 24% of the time. Baltimore has a lot of weapons and can do damage all over the field, but Flowers has the best matchup this week and should be upgraded.
TE Jonnu Smith (MIA vs HOU)
Smith has been one of the best fantasy football tight ends over the past few weeks. He has scored 21+ points in three out of his last four and has not scored lower than 13.2 points in that span. Houston has not played a truly elite tight end in over a month and has still been beaten for 15+ points twice. The target share and the matchup will easily make Smith a top-10 tight end this week.
Unfavorable Matchups
WR Michael Pittman Jr. (IND vs DEN) vs Patrick Surtain II
The big game for Jerry Jeudy against the Broncos a few weeks ago is the exception and not the rule. The Denver secondary is one of the best in the league, and Surtain is a top cover corner. Even if he does not shadow this week, Surtain and Pittman line up in the same spot roughly 73% of the time. Surtain is allowing 0.16 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 12% of the time. Denver has struggled in recent weeks, but Surtain has been unrelenting. The only escape from Pittman may come in the slot, but Surtain has shown a willingness to travel there as well. Downgrade Pittman in what will be a tough road game for the Colts.
WR Nico Collins (HOU vs MIA) vs Jalen Ramsey
Collins is the clear-cut No. 1 receiver in Houston, and that should earn him the shadow treatment from Ramsey this week. Ramsey has been hit or miss when shadowing top receivers with DK Metcalf and Garrett Wilson both having big games. However, the Dolphins have been playing much better over the past two months and are currently allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to receivers and the seventh-fewest to the perimeter over that time. Ramsey is allowing 0.25 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted just 13% of the time. The bust potential for Collins is high this week.
WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARZ vs NE) vs Christian Gonzalez
New England has struggled as a whole against receivers this season. Despite Gonzalez's best efforts, they are currently allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing receivers. Since returning from injury, Gonzalez is currently allowing 0.29 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 19% of the time. Teams are not afraid to throw in his direction, but he has been making plays all over the field. The inconsistent play of Harrison, coupled with the shadow coverage of Gonzalez this week, should downgrade our overall expectations for the rookie receiver.
WR Justin Jefferson (MIN vs CHI) vs Jaylon Johnson
There is a lot of history between Jefferson and Johnson. The standout corner for the Bears held Jefferson to just 2 catches for 27 yards during their meeting three weeks ago. Teams have paid extra attention to Jefferson in recent weeks, and Jordan Addison has taken advantage of the 1-on-1 matchups. Johnson is currently allowing 0.21 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted just 10% of the time. Teams have largely avoided him in coverage this year. Jefferson is too good overall to bench, but expectations should be lowered this week.
WR Tee Higgins (CIN vs TEN) vs Chidobe Awuzie
Awuzie has come back from injury and is playing well for the Titans. He currently allows 0.16 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 13% of the time. He has always been a good corner, dating back to his time with Cincinnati. Higgins has also been overshadowed by Ja'Marr Chase in recent weeks. This is not a shadow situation, and Higgins will see other corners throughout the game. However, with the bulk of his routes coming against Awuzie, Higgins can be downgraded this week.
WR Amari Cooper (BUF vs DET) vs Carlton Davis III
The Lions have played much better defense over the past month. They were on pace to give up the most fantasy points to opposing receivers through the first few weeks due to the high volume faced. Since that has come back to the average, they are currently allowing the eighth-fewest points. Josh Allen has done his best to play Superman for this offense, but Cooper continues to be a boom or bust this season since the trade. Davis is currently allowing 0.35 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 22% of the time. Both of those numbers have trended downward in the past few weeks. Cooper can be downgraded this week.
TE Dalton Kincaid (BUF vs DET)
Kincaid was close to returning to action last week, but even if he returns this week, he should be avoided. Detroit has been one of the toughest matchups in the league against tight ends. They have allowed just two tight ends to score double-digit points with a max of 13.2 points. Detroit is allowing the lowest points per game to tight ends, and Kincaid has not been a big part of the offense, even when healthy. Look elsewhere, if possible, this week.
TE Cole Kmet (CHI vs MIN)
Kmet was held without a point last week against the 49ers and has been held to single-digit points in all but 1one of his last seven games. He may have beaten the Vikings for 13 points a few weeks ago, but Minnesota is allowing the sixth-fewest points per game to the position this season. Kmet is the epitome of boom or bust and is a player you should avoid unless you are severely outmatched in the first week of the fantasy playoffs.
