This article highlights some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) and reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not considered, so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchups
WR Calvin Ridley (TEN vs JAX) vs Ronald Darby
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has been a sure bet for a touchdown over the past several weeks, but Ridley has not been far behind in this offense with Will Levis back under center. It is better to take the consistent target option in Ridley than the touchdown-dependent option in Westbrook. Both players may have enough upside to start against a Jacksonville defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing receivers. Darby is currently allowing 0.39 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 19% of the time. Ridley has been averaging five catches per game over the past six weeks, recording catches of 20+ yards in each contest.
WR Malik Nabers (NYG vs NO) vs Alontae Taylor
The Saints have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers so far this season and have lost Paulson Adebo and Marshon Lattimore in the past six weeks. Both Taylor and Ugo Amadi have not played well in replacement roles. The Giants have struggled with replacement-level quarterback play, but Nabers is a good young receiver with a matchup that is too good to ignore. Taylor is currently allowing 0.39 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 20% of the time. Look for double-digit targets for Nabers this week.
WR Brandin Cooks (DAL vs CIN) vs Cam Taylor-Britt
The Bengals’ defense has not played well at all this season. They are currently allowing the most fantasy points to perimeter receivers. Cooks has returned healthy, and CeeDee Lamb is dealing with a shoulder injury. There should be plenty of room for Cooks to operate this week in what could be a high-scoring matchup. Taylor-Britt is currently allowing 0.50 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 21% of the time. Cooper Rush is throwing the ball 40+ times per game right now, and there should be plenty of targets going toward Cooks.
WR Calvin Austin III (PIT vs CLE) vs Greg Newsome II
Austin is coming off back-to-back games with a touchdown, one of which came against Newsome 2 weeks ago. George Pickens is still the main read in this offense, but Austin is proving to be very valuable in the slot. Newsome was one of the best slot corners last season but has struggled mightily this year. He is currently allowing 0.44 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 20% of the time. Marvin Mims Jr. made a big play against Newsome for a long touchdown on Monday Night. There is no reason to fear Newsome right now, making Austin a sleeper pick this week against Cleveland.
WR Ladd McConkey (LAC vs KC) vs Chamarri Conner
The Chiefs have played great defense overall, but their biggest weak spot is in the slot. They are allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to receivers overall but the most to the slot. McConkey lines up in the slot roughly 76% of the time and beat Kansas City for 5 catches, 76 yards, and a touchdown in week 4. Conner currently allows 0.35 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 19% of the time. Look for Justin Herbert to try to exploit this hole against the division-rival Chiefs.
WR A.J. Brown (PHI vs CAR) vs Jaycee Horn
Horn has been asked to shadow a few times this season, but it has not gone well. The young corner currently allows 0.34 fantasy points per coverage snap and is targeted 19% of the time. The entire defense has not played well against the pass, and we should upgrade all Philadelphia receivers accordingly. Brown has one of the best matchups on the outside and can be started with confidence this week. DeVonta Smith continues to struggle with injuries, and the entire offense opens up when Saquon Barkley is running well.
TE Jonnu Smith (MIA vs NYJ)
Smith has turned into a must-start. He is currently TE5 in PPR scoring and has been TE1 over the past month. Smith has 21 points in three straight games and four of his last seven. The strength of the Jets’ defense is on the outside. This will affect Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill more than Smith. Look for the high volume of targets to continue as Miami looks to make a late push for the playoffs.
TE Pat Freiermuth (PIT vs CLE)
Freiermuth is back to being a startable tight end right now. He has scored 9.9 or more fantasy points in 3 of his last four games and had a season-best 18.8 against the Bengals last week. The Browns have allowed the most points per game to opposing tight ends over the past month. With all the teams on a Bye this week, Freiermuth should be in your lineup.
Unfavorable Matchups
WR Adam Thielen (CAR vs PHI) vs Cooper DeJean
Thielen has worked himself back from injury and is coming off a big game last week against Tampa Bay. With 8 catches for 99 yards and a touchdown, he has instantly taken control of this receiver room again. However, this week he runs into the buzz saw that is the Philadelphia secondary. DeJean is a big reason why the Eagles have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers over the past two months. He currently allows 0.18 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 17% of the time. Thielen will warrant WR2/FLEX consideration down the stretch, but this is a matchup to avoid this week.
WR Tyreek Hill (MIA vs NYJ) vs Sauce Gardner
The Jets' offense may be struggling, but the defense is still allowing the fewest fantasy points overall to opposing receivers. It is not just Gardner either; D.J. Reed and Michael Carter II have stepped up and held down the slot and the other side. Both Jaylen Waddles and Hill should struggle this week against the best secondary in the league. Gardner is currently allowing 0.30 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 17% of the time. Downgrade all pass catchers in Miami this week.
WR Quentin Johnston (LAC vs KC) vs Josh Williams
Johnston was showing some promise earlier this season and has fallen off the map since being shut out by the Ravens a few weeks ago. Justin Herbert is doing all he can to throw the ball around, but Johnston is struggling with drops. This week, he is walking into one of the toughest matchups in the league against Kansas City. Williams is currently allowing 0.20 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 15% of the time. The poor play alone is enough to bench Johnston, but the tough matchup this week should have him nowhere near any lineups.
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs ARZ) vs Garrett Williams
Smith-Njigba has been carving a bigger role this season in the Seattle offense. Tyler Lockett is aging, and DK Metcalf has seen an increase in double coverage. The slot matchup against Williams will all but erase that bigger role as the young corner is playing extremely well. He currently allows 0.18 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 16% of the time. Smith-Njigba may warrant FLEX consideration this week due to the sheer number of teams on a Bye, but we should temper our expectations overall.
WR Marvin Harrison Jr.. (ARZ vs SEA) vs Josh Jobe
Seattle has a chance to win this division based on their defense alone. This secondary ranks in the top 10 in almost every pass-defense category and has played well over the past month. Jobe is currently allowing 0.24 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 17% of the time. Harrison Jr. has struggled at times this year. He had 3 catches for 47 yards a few weeks ago against this Seattle secondary and could be in line for a similar finish this week.
WR Tee Higgins (CIN vs DAL) vs DaRon Bland
Bland is back and fully healthy in the lineup. He currently allows 0.26 fantasy points per coverage snaps and is targeted 18% of the time. He played well on Thanksgiving and should line up against Higgins at least 40% of the time this week. Dallas is looking to make a late push, and Cincinnati is falling apart due to a defense that cannot stop anyone. Higgins looks like he is just playing for his next contract right now and is running into a tough matchup. He can still be considered in a FLEX spot but should be downgraded out of his normal WR2 home.
TE Kyle Pitts (ATL vs MIN)
Pitts has gone from a must-start to a cut candidate in just a few short weeks. He has scored a total of 13.5 fantasy points across his past four games. The biggest culprit has been the play of Kirk Cousins in recent weeks, but Pitts has failed to get anything going with any quarterback or system at this level. The Vikings rank near the middle of the pack against tight ends, but at some point, we have to stop chasing the player we thought Pitts was his rookie season and cut ties.
TE Cole Kmet (CHI vs SF)
Kmet has continued his up-and-down season after scoring 13.4 points on 10 targets two weeks ago and then failing to reach 6 points on just 3 targets last week. When starting Kmet you are chasing touchdowns and living with the low floor. This week, he has a tough matchup against the 49ers, who have allowed the third-fewest yards to opposing tight ends and just 3 touchdowns. This is not the game to chase points with Kmet.
