This article highlights some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) and reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not considered, so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchups
WR CeeDee Lamb (DAL vs NYG) vs Deonte Banks
Lamb had no trouble with Banks in coverage earlier this season, finishing with 7 catches for 98 yards and a touchdown. The biggest difference will be Cooper Rush, who will be starting as quarterback, but he has force-fed Lamb since taking over and is averaging double-digit targets per game. Lamb is still a must-start in PPR formats despite seeing his yards and touchdowns plummet. Lamb should line up against Banks on the outside roughly 52% of the time and see slot corner Dru Phillips the other 48%. Start Lamb with confidence on Thanksgiving.
WR A.J. Brown (PHI vs BAL) vs Brandon Stephens
Baltimore did a great job holing Quentin Johnston without a catch on 5 targets last week, but they are still allowing the most fantasy points to opposing receivers over the course of the whole season. Stephens has given up numerous big plays on the outside on a path to allowing 0.33 fantasy points per coverage snap while only being targeted 16% of the time. The Ravens have allowed 17 touchdowns through the air, and there have been 8 receivers to eclipse 20 fantasy points against them. Johnston may have been a big letdown against this secondary last week, but Brown is a much better player and is in line for a big day.
WR Ladd McConkey (LAC vs ATL) vs Dee Alford
After the poor showing last week, Johnston may have just cleared the way for McConkey to take over the target share in this offense. McConkey will be facing an Atlanta secondary that allows the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers, has given up 15 touchdowns, and allows a league-high 72% catch rate. Alford currently allows 0.32 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 21% of the time. The Chargers will be without J.K. Dobbins this week and may turn to throwing the ball more than in recent weeks. Upgrade McConkey in a great matchup this week.
WR Cooper Kupp (LAR vs NO) Ugo Amadi
Despite the team loss, the Rams' receiving group did a good job against a tough Philadelphia secondary last week. They will face a much easier New Orleans secondary this week that is without Paulson Adebo (injury) and Marshon Lattimore (trade). New Orleans has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season and is in the top 5 in receptions and yards allowed. Amadi is allowing 0.37 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 23% of the time. Kupp has a great matchup, but this entire receiving group can be upgraded this week.
WR George Pickens (PIT vs CIN) vs Cam Taylor-Britt
Pittsburgh is coming off back-to-back tough performances through the air. The connection with Russell Wilson may appear to have faded in recent weeks, but that should change against a soft Cincinnati secondary. Taylor-Britt currently allows 0.53 fantasy points per coverage snap and is targeted 23% of the time. The loss to Cleveland last week opened the door for Baltimore to get back into the division conversation. Look for Wilson to target Pickens early and often to try and establish an offensive flow this week.
WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN vs WAS) vs Benjamin St-Juste
Westbrook-Ikhine has a touchdown in sox out of his last seven games and has shown a better connection with Will Levis than anyone else on the team. His hot streak is entirely touchdown-dependent, as he is averaging just 2 catches per game, but that may not be a problem against a Washington secondary that has struggled in recent weeks. St-Juste is currently allowing 0.43 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 22% of the time. Look for Westbrook-Ikhine to break another play this week and continue his hot streak.
TE Cade Otton (TB vs CAR)
Otton is coming off one of his worst games of the season against the Giants. The team got up big and did not need his services for much of the second half. That should not dissuade you from starting him this week, as he will be facing a Carolina defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Carolina allowed 2 touchdowns to Noah Gray last week and is ripe for the picking this week. Start Otton with confidence again this week.
TE Hunter Henry (NE vs IND)
Henry has continued his steady production over the past seven weeks with another 9.4-point performance in a blowout loss to Miami. He is averaging double-digit points over the past two months and is walking into a favorable matchup. The Colts have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season. With Drake Maye under center, Henry has become a weekly starter at a very thin tight-end position.
Unfavorable Matchups
WR Jerry Jeudy (CLE vs DEN) vs Patrick Surtain II
Cleveland is coming off a big win against a divisional opponent in the snow. They have shown they can beat Baltimore and Pittsburgh but have also struggled immensely against weaker opponents. Jeudy is walking into one of the toughest matchups in the NFL against Surtain. Both players line up in equal measure on both sides of the field, and the only saving grace may be the 35% that Jeudy lines up in the slot. Surtain is currently allowing 0.16 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 12% of the time. Jeudy and Cedric Tillman should be downgraded this week; Surtain is not expected to shadow either.
WR Zay Flowers (BAL vs PHI) vs Quinyon Mitchell
Philadelphia has been one of the toughest secondaries against opposing receivers over the past two months. Mitchell has played extremely well on the outside, is allowing 0.20 fantasy points per coverage snap, and is being targeted 15% of the time. Flowers has not played well in recent weeks and is disappearing in this offense. He tied Mark Andrews in targets last week and just barely beat him in yards. Lamar Jackson is spreading the ball around, and Flowers has a tough matchup, downgrade him this week or until he has a better matchup down the road.
WR Christian Watson (GB vs MIA) vs Storm Duck
Duck is not just one of the most fun names in the NFL. He has played well in limited snaps so far this season. He currently allows 0.17 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted just 19% of the time. He has benefited from playing opposite Jalen Ramsey and will see a combination of Watson and Dontayvion Wicks this week. Downgrade the Green Bay receiver group in what should be a difficult matchup against Miami.
WR Tank Dell (HOU vs JAX) vs Tyson Campbell
Houston has been one of the most inconsistent teams in the NFL this season. Even Dell has run hot and cold all season. He saw a big increase in targets when Nico Collins was out and still managed to put up a goose egg earlier this year. This week, he is walking into a tough matchup against Campbell on the outside. Campbell is allowing 0.21 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted just 13% of the time. Downgrade Dell this week in what should be a very tough matchup against Campbell.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET vs CHI) vs Kyler Gordon
St. Brown is not a player you would ever bench outright, but we should temper expectations this week against Chicago. The Bears are allowing the 3rd fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers this season and are coming off a game against Minnesota where Justin Jefferson scored just 5 points. St. Brown is historically boom-or-bust against Chicago. Last season, he scored 21.4 points in one game and 5.4 in the other. The Bears are vulnerable on the outside and that should give a boost to Jameson Williams. St. Brown should not be on your bench, but he should be moved down the receiver rankings this week.
WR DK Metcalf (SEA vs NYJ) vs Sauce Gardner
Coming out of their Bye week, the Jets have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers this season. They have been a tough matchup for everyone they have faced. Metcalf will see a mix of Gardner and D.J. Reed. Both players are targeted less than 20% of the time, and they allow fewer than 0.30 fantasy points per coverage snap. Metcalf is still the focal point in the offense and will see a lot of targets, but his overall score should be lowered this week in a tough matchup.
TE Kyle Pitts (ATL vs LAC)
Pitts has taken a tumble in recent weeks and has scored 2.1 or fewer points in two out of his last three games while averaging just 4.5 points across that span. He is also walking into a tough matchup against a Chargers defense that has allowed a single touchdown to opposing tight ends this season and only 4 to beat them for double-digit points. Maybe it is no longer about finding the right quarterback to unlock Pitts but that he did not have the skills to excel in the NFL like we all thought.
TE Cole Kmet (CHI vs DET)
Kmet had a bounce-back week against the Vikings with 7 catches for 64 yards. However, that is the first time he broke double-digit points in his previous seven games. The Thanksgiving Day matchup against Detroit is not favorable either. They have allowed a single tight end to surpass double-digit points all season. Avoid Kmet unless you are desperate this week.
