This article highlights some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) and reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not considered, so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchups
WR Dontayvion Wicks (GB vs LAR) vs Tre'Davious White
Wicks had a big game against the Vikings last week, and it is expected that his role will grow even further with the injury to Christian Watson. White and the Rams’ secondary has struggled mightily so far this season and are currently allowing the 9th most fantasy points overall to opposing receivers and the most to outside receivers. White has struggled since coming over from Buffalo and is currently allowing 0.86 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 27% of the time. Look for Jordan Love to target Wicks early and often this week as Green Bay tries to rebound from a loss to the Vikings last week.
WR George Pickens (PIT vs DAL) vs Caelen Carson
Pickens will have to contend with Trevon Diggs on roughly 24% of his routes this week but will likely contend with Carson on the other side for the rest. The young corner for the Cowboys has struggled early this season and is currently allowing 0.69 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 25% of the time. Pickens is the main weapon in this offense right now and has seen his value sore with Justin Fields under center. Look for another strong week from the young receiver as the Cowboys' defense continues to struggle.
WR DK Metcalf (SEA vs NYG) vs Deonte Banks
This is a projected shadow matchup coming into the weekend, but Metcalf should still have the upper hand. Banks has been tasked with following the likes of Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb so far this season and has mixed results to show for it. The young corner is currently allowing 0.59 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 23% of the time. The offense has done him no favors and kept the defense on the field at a high rate. Opposing quarterbacks have not been afraid to target Banks, and Metcalf is used to seeing the shadow treatment. Upgrade Metcalf and the rest of the Seahawks offense in what is a good matchup against the Giants.
WR DJ Moore (CHI vs CAR) vs Jaycee Horn
The connection between Caleb Williams and Moore took a big step forward last week, and they are walking into another great matchup this week against Carolina. Horn has struggled with injuries and coverage in general since coming to the league and has not had the best start to the season. He currently allows 0.59 fantasy points per coverage snap despite being targeted 18% of the time. Carolina has faced a low volume of passes due to a negative game script, but as things start to even out through the season, these numbers are likely to get worse. Upgrade the Bears receivers in a solid matchup this week against the Panthers.
WR Allen Lazard (NYJ vs MIN) vs Byron Murphy II
This is a matchup that will be very interesting to follow. The Vikings have been leading their opponents for 85% of the season so far, and that has caused this defense to face the most targets, yards, and fantasy points through four weeks. It is hard to pinpoint how good the defense is due to the overall volume faced. However, with the strong defensive play of the Jets, we are likely to see a more even matchup. Lazard has become one of Aron Rodgers' favorite targets again and is highly targeted in the red zone. Murphy is allowing 0.34 fantasy points per coverage snap in the slot and will face his toughest test this season with Rodgers and Lazard. Give the advantage to the Jets and Rodgers as they look to rebound from a crushing loss to the Broncos last week.
WR Michael Pittman Jr. (IND vs JAX) vs Montaric Brown
Pittman saw a huge increase in production last week with Anthony Richardson giving way to Joe Flacco due to injury. It is still unclear if Richardson will play this week, but Pittman has a great matchup regardless of who is under center. Brown currently allows 0.49 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 22% of the time. The Jacksonville offense has not done the defense any favors regarding time of possession. Give Pittman a much bigger boost if Flacco is under center again, but he is also playable in any format due to the matchup this week.
TE Jake Ferguson (DAL vs PIT)
Since returning from injury, Ferguson has shown the elite tight end he can be. He has 18 targets over his past two games and reached double-digit fantasy points in each contest. He is currently the second receiving option on the team and could see an even bigger boost with Brandin Cooks ruled out this week. Dallas is currently throwing the ball 68% of the time and shows no signs of slowing down. Start Ferguson with confidence this week with a top-5 TE performance within grasp.
TE Evan Engram (JAX vs IND)
Engram is projected to return this week against the Colts and is walking into a great spot. The offense has struggled mightily, and Trevor Lawrence has sorely missed the security blanket that is Engram. The Colts allow the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and are tied for the most touchdowns allowed. Engram is a must-start this week as long as he is cleared from injury.
Unfavorable Matchups
WR Davante Adams (LV vs DEN) vs Patrick Surtain II
There is a lot to monitor with this matchup with Adams missing last week due to injury and the ever-revolving trade rumors. History would suggest Adams is a safe play against Surtain, but the numbers for the young corner are too hard to ignore this season. Surtain has locked down George Pickens, Mike Evans, DK Metcalf, and Garrett Wilson so far this season. He has yet to give up a touchdown and is leading this Denver defense to a great start. Adams would likely still see enough volume to be playable in season-long formats, but he can be avoided in DFS with one of his toughest matchups of the season.
WR Jordan Addison (MIN vs NYJ) vs D.J. Reed
Addison exploded back onto the scene last week with a receiving and rushing touchdown. The young receiver will make this Minnesota offense even better throughout the season. However, he is walking into one of the toughest matchups in the league against Reed. The lockdown corner currently allows just 0.10 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted just 20% of the time. The entire Jets’ secondary has been elite to start the season; the entire Vikings receiving group should be downgraded this week.
WR Chris Olave (NO vs KC) vs Jaylen Watson
The Saints’ offense has been up and down early this season with no one but Alvin Kamara contributing consistently. Olave lost targets to Rashid Shaheed early in the season but has started to work himself back into the fold. This week, he has a tough matchup against Watson and the Chiefs defense. Watson has stepped up this season and is currently allowing just 0.17 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 15% of the time. The Chiefs continue to find ways to win games despite their offensive struggles, and the strong play of Watson and this defense are the biggest reasons. Downgrade Olave and other New Orleans pass catchers this week.
WR Drake London (ATL vs TB) vs Tykee Smith
Tampa Bay has been a surprise team to start the season. They are coming off a big win against Philadelphia and will take on another dark horse playoff team in Atlanta. London has mixed results with Kirk Cousins at quarterback so far and is walking into a tough matchup against Smith in the slot. The young corner is currently allowing 0.10 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted just 9% of the time. The Atlanta offense has not taken off under Cousins like most had hoped, and they are walking into a tough matchup against Tampa Bay this week.
WR Diontae Johnson (CAR vs CHI) vs Jaylon Johnson
Johnson and the Panthers' offense has made a huge turnaround since Andy Dalton took over under center. Bryce Young struggled to consistently get the ball out, and all facets of the offense struggled. Even with the turnaround, Johnson is walking into a tough matchup against the Bears defense this week. Jaylon Johnson is currently allowing 0.19 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted just 14% of the time. This Johnson on Johnson matchup is going to be one of the biggest keys of the game. Give the upper hand to Chicago and downgrade D. Johnson this week.
WR Jayden Reed (GB vs LAR) vs Quentin Lake
Reed has started the season on a high note and taken over the biggest target share in the Green Bay offense. With Christian Watson suffering an injury, it would be easy to think his role would get even bigger. However, he is walking into a tough matchup against Lake in the slot. Lake has not been tested a lot this season, but he is currently allowing 0.18 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 18% of the time. This is one of the strong points of the Rams’ secondary and should limit the damage Reed does this week. The rest of the receiver group can be upgraded with Reed having the toughest matchup on the inside.
TE Mark Andrews (BAL vs CIN)
It was easy to blame returning from injury for the slow start, but the usage is just not there for Andrews right now. He now has 2 games with 0 fantasy points and this offense is embracing the rushing juggernaut it can be. Andrews played less than 50% of snaps last week and ran just 9 total routes. He is being used as an extra blocker right now and has next to no fantasy value. Both Andrews and Isaiah Likely need to be on the bench until this offense becomes more balanced.
TE Kyle Pitts (ATL vs TB)
Kirk Cousins and a new coach have done nothing to unlock Pitts. Over 50% of his fantasy points this season have come from just two plays. He is averaging three targets per game and is just not a big part of this offense. Tampa Bay is not one of the toughest matchups against tight ends, but the usage is more than enough to steer clear of Pitts. He has the build and all the talent, but this team has no idea how to use him. He is likely to have a few big games this season, but predicting when is near impossible. Move on from Pitts if possible in your league.
